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Red Raven

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Posts posted by Red Raven

    A growing groundswell of opinion?

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Yes, there is a growing % of the masses who now believe that GW is not going to happen.

    ALL it will take for the mainstream to quit the whole 'global warming' issue will be one really cold long winter (something that is statistically still likely at some point).

    Never forget just how dumb and outright ignorant the typical person is, and especially so in terms of the nations 'collective memory'. The average UK resident lacks even the basic grounding science, why are people still treating the populace like they are intelligent ?

    So, all we need is just one cold winter, and anyone touting a warming climate will be laughed at and slated. Hell, there are even signs of that attitude on this forum at times (despite the fact that even the naysayers concede an overall warming trend).

    The opinion of the masses is largely irrelevent, since such views are based on ignorance and what newspaper they happen to read.

    Calrissian: back to black irrelevant

    I tend to agree with C.

    But rather than blame the individual I do believe it is the fault of the government (past and present) for continually disenfranchising the individual out of any meaningful process of decision making. The simple result of that is apathy, cynicism and despondency which all in the long term lead to the same effects C expresses.

    Why do you not trust the experts?

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Sabrina,

    I'm afraid that in terms of evolution of thinking your boyfriend is fifty or so years behind the times.

    I'm sure others will respond to the various points, but can you ask your boyfriend please, what colour a radio wave is (that miraculously turns to sound in your radio and a picture in your TV), and what colour atomic radiation is (the stuff that strips the skin off your flesh).

    The point with CO2 is not that it gets warm. A blanket on your bed doesn't work by getting warm; it works by reflecting heat back in. The fact that CO2 is colourless is as relevant to global warming as the colour a car is painted is to its maximum speed.

    Sorry RR, from where I'm sitting your last line says it all. All Sabrina's boyfriend illustrates is the age old adage: be careful who you listen to. It's totally iorrational to say that because Sabrina's boyfriend has no knowledge whatsoever about the workings of the atmosphere, any view expounded by anybody is equally flawed. Your reasoning, on that basis, really isn't much more advanced than his.

    No you don't!

    Looked at that link myself the other week: it's very good.

    I agree SF. But he has chosen to 'listen to' someone who gives a safe percievable explanation. Is it not simply a reaction of fear of the unknown - "i choose to believe this option because it doesnt undermine me".

    Why do you not trust the experts?

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    No offence to Sabrina's boyfriend but his argument illustrates why experts are not trusted (at least in the climate field). Climate or more accurately weather is something everyone experiences and feels they know very well. But realistically that knowledge doesn't extend much further than understanding that, when it rains you get wet (don't mean to be patronising). This basic knowledge is very essential on a day to day 'survival' basis but offers little to the understanding of the science. So to question these fundamentals questions the whole purpose and foundation of an individual - the natural reaction being one of rejection because the question challenges that individuals purpose in the world.

    does that make sense - probably not lol.

    Snow

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    hi Red Raven,

    I have never skied in the Dolomites,but I have been told that scenically the area is dramatic. Sometimes on a clear day I can see the tops of the Stella Group way out to the SW of Katschberg. In the late afternoon they appear orange with distinctive jagged tops. Very beautiful. Corvara is about the same height at 1568 m asl, the same as Katschberg village, so snowfall is pretty well assured. Enjoy your 7 th season. I can assure you it just gets better. I am totally fruit and nuts about the Alps!

    C

    The scenery is superb.

    Here's soem photos from this year - showing the before and after!

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/57102058@N00/

    Gross Glockner

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Hi,

    When conditions prevail, I am going to post web-cam images of the highest mountain in Austria at 12.457 feet asl. We can then monitor the glacier and snow conditions over the coming months. Glockner can be easily seen from Katschberg Mountain during the clear winter skies and is in the same Hohe Tauern National Park .

    Hope the images come through.

    C

    Thats a great idea - is this the place?

    Google map

    Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Recent atmospheric analysis from the Svalbard sounding have indicated an early formation of the main Arctic Vortex in this region. Cyclonic circulation in the middle-upper troposphere is now in evidence on a fairly large scale with temperatures of -55C at T300. Later in the winter the mean PV usually centres over Baffin and NE Siberia. If the Svalbard PV and the Northern Block persist during the start of Autumn, expect some early cold spells of the British Isles.

    C

    That sounds like some encouraging news. If this happens how far south would the cold spells reach - would they help in early snow events in the Alps or is it only of benefit to northern Europe?

    Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Here is some interesting facts which I never knew about.

    The general consensus believe that increased CO2 emissions are responsible for our current warming and the levels at the moment are around 380PPM (parts per million).

    Now did you know that during the late Ordovician period (around 500million years ago) an ice age started around this period and yet the CO2 levels were around 4400ppm which is 12 times higher than today!!.

    I have two alternative explainations and these are the solar cycles and Milankovitch cycles.

    The two of these are the greatest contributors to climate change!.

    Most of the land mass formed the huge continent of Gondwanaland at that time and areas such as land now around the Med where at the south pole so glaciation was to be expected, also a continent of this size would cool hugely during winters.

    (isnt there 1 too many 0 on that 4400ppm?)

    Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Steve,

    As you know the jet streak has been active for quite a bit this summer across Southern England into France and Switzerland. Colder air aloft has maintained a lower than average snow line, particularly in the Western Alps and as far East as the Voralborg Region in Western Austria. Many parts of Upper Austria and the Southern Alpine regions have a up to recently have had a hot summer in contrast. However, I pleased to report that there is more snow retention this summer on Gloss Grockner ( I will send you a live picture when the cloud has lifted)

    Yes , the Arctic ice not good in the North American and Siberian sectors, but signs of early cooling now taking place on the Arctic Coast of Northern Canada.

    I have a feeling you are going to busy this winter with early than normal cold snaps. I will be looking for your progs.

    Cheers

    C

    I've been following this chart for Davos all summer and willing the temperature below the average line. It does show that this year is indeed a cooler one compared to last.

    http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/en/cli...stationDAV.html

    Also follow this Cam which can be quite depressing really seeing how small and blue the marmolada glacier looks (marmolada is in the Dolomites, Italy)

    http://www.marmolada.com/webcam.htm

    Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sub annular mode. Pretty sure it's the same as the Antarctic Ossiclation (AAO). The modes gives a clue as to the strength of the polar vortex and positioning of systems in the southern ocean. It's been mainly positive for quite some time, this year it gave signals early on of switching. I made a call for a great ski season back at the beginning of April and successfully predicted a high occurence of ECL's. All thanks to you guys and the idea of teleconnections which is not much discussed down there.

    Any chance you can make a similar prediction for the northern hemisphere's ski season - especially the Dolomites :)

    Your highest max temp this summer?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Red Raven

    Some Dodgy Temps on here, Red Raven, 28.2 on the 11th of june! Ive looked at a couple of weather stations in cumbria and the warmest they came up with is 23.6 on the 9th of June, thats sounds much more realistic to me.

    The highrst weve had is 24.6 on the 9th of June. This is the first time in many a year that 25 degrees has not been broken by the end of July, by this time last year we had broken 25 degrees by well over 20 times!

    You would be suprised how mild it can be on the west coast. That 28.2 is correct and i've just checked the enerdale and seaton stations and they all show warm temps similar to mine - so its not dodgy.

    http://www.wildennerdale.co.uk/weather/weather.htm

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