Stuart

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Jun 2015 to Monday 29 Jun 2015: High pressure looks as though it may become dominate the north of the UK during much of this period. This will bring dry and fine weather to most parts, with warm conditions across the north, especially the northwest. It may be very warm in the south at times, although here there is a continued risk of thunderstorms spreading up from continental Europe. Confidence in the forecast evolution is low for the second half of June; however, the general trend looks set to remain similar, with drier conditions in the north, some showers possible in the south, and temperatures remaining warm nearly everywhere. Updated at: 1305 on Sun 31 May 2015 http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Jun 2015 to Sunday 14 Jun 2015: Mostly dry and fine across the UK on Friday, with long periods of sunshine probably much warmer than of late. A few showers are possible, and there is a risk that heavy and thundery showers may develop across southern parts. A similar story into the weekend with very warm conditions developing, with a continuing risk of thunderstorms in the south. Into the second week of June, there is likely to be a fair amount of fine and dry weather especially in the south, but relatively unsettled in the northwest. A brisk wind is possible in the far south around the start of the week. Exact temperatures towards the end of the period are uncertain, but further warm spells are likely. http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jun 2015 to Saturday 27 Jun 2015: High pressure looks as though it will be established across the north of the UK during much of this period. This will bring fine and dry conditions to most parts with warmer conditions than of late across the north, and especially the northwest. It is also expected to be very warm in the south, although here there is a risk of some heavy and thundery showers spreading up from continental Europe. Confidence in the forecast evolution declines towards the end of June; however, the general trend looks set to remain similar, with drier conditions in the north, some showers possible in the south, and generally warm temperatures. Updated at: 1251 on Fri 29 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Jun 2015 to Friday 12 Jun 2015: Many places should be dry on Wednesday with some sunshine, the best of this in southern and eastern areas. More unsettled conditions, with outbreaks of rain and brisk winds, probably spreading into northern areas later on Wednesday and during Thursday, with the south probably remaining dry, and warmer than we've seen recently. Thereafter it looks as though high pressure will become established over northern parts of the UK, bringing generally dry, fine conditions for most. There is a risk later in the period that the south will see some heavy and thundery showers spreading up from the continent. Temperatures generally warm or very warm in most inland areas. Coastal areas in the east, may well be a little cooler at times with winds off the chilly North Sea. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Jun 2015 to Thursday 25 Jun 2015: There is some uncertainty in the likely weather type through this period, however high pressure will have become established to the north of the UK. This would lead to drier, warmer conditions for many, these perhaps most prolonged across the north, but it may also allow some more unsettled, perhaps thundery weather to move up from continental Europe and affect the south of the UK. This trend looks like it may continue into the third week of June with drier than average conditions in the north, however some unsettled spells are also likely to push in from the west at times, as well some thundery outbreaks also coming up from the south. Updated at: 1205 on Wed 27 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Jun 2015 to Wednesday 10 Jun 2015: Rather unsettled conditions at first with spells of rain interspersed by drier, brighter and more showery interludes. It may be rather windy, particularly in the northwest, with the bulk of the rainfall also here. Southern and eastern areas look best placed for the driest, brightest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, but particularly in the northwest. By midweek, unsettled conditions are considered likely to continue in the northwest, with slightly below average temperatures, but more settled, warmer, conditions may start to build in the south. Towards the end of the week these warmer, more settled conditions look likely to spread north to most of the country although perhaps with a risk of showers in the south. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Jun 2015 to Tuesday 23 Jun 2015: There still remains some uncertainty in the likely weather type through this period. There is, however, a signal for higher pressure to become established to the north of the UK until the middle of June. This would lead to drier, warmer conditions for many, these perhaps most prolonged in the north, but it may also allow some more unsettled, perhaps thundery, weather to move up from continental Europe and affect the south of the country. As we head into the third week of June there is a chance that similar conditions may persist with drier than average conditions in the north, however some unsettled spells are also lilkely at times. Updated at: 1236 on Mon 25 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 May 2015 to Monday 8 Jun 2015: The transition from May into June is expected to be unsettled, with spells of rain interspersed by drier, brighter and more showery interludes. It may be rather windy, particularly in the northwest, with the bulk of the rainfall also here. Southern and eastern areas look best placed for the driest, brightest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below average in the northwest, but near average further south and east. Into the first week of June unsettled conditions are considered likely to continue in the northwest, with slightly below average temperatures, but more settled, warmer, conditions may start to dominate in the southeast. Towards the weekend these warmer more settled conditions look likely to spread to most of the country although perhaps with a risk of showers in the south. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Jun 2015 to Monday 22 Jun 2015: There still remains considerable uncertainty in the likely weather type through this period. There is, however, a signal for higher pressure to become established to the north of the UK. This would lead to drier, warmer conditions for many, these perhaps most prolonged in the north, but it may also allow some more unsettled, perhaps thundery, weather to move up from continental Europe and affect the south of the country. Updated at: 1206 on Sun 24 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 29 May 2015 to Sunday 7 Jun 2015: May is expected to end unsettled, with spells of rain interspersed by drier, brighter and more showery interludes. It may be rather windy, particularly in the northwest, with a risk of gales, and the bulk of the rainfall. Southern and eastern areas look best placed for the driest, brightest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below average in the northwest, but near average further south and east. Into June the signal for prevailing weather becomes fairly weak, but, on balance, unsettled conditions are considered more likely in the northwest at first, with slightly below average temperatures, and settled, warmer, conditions in the southeast. Towards the weekend these warmer more settled conditions are likely to spread to most of the country with a risk of showers in the south. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Jun 2015 to Sunday 21 Jun 2015: There still remains considerable uncertainty in the likely weather type through this period. At first, unsettled conditions and near or below average temperatures are likely, especially towards the northwest. Then, as we go further into June, there is a signal for higher pressure to become established to the northeast of the UK, which would lead to drier, warmer conditions for many, these perhaps most prolonged in the north. Updated at: 1209 on Sat 23 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjp7dy02

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 May 2015 to Saturday 6 Jun 2015: Unsettled weather is expected to see out May, bringing spells of rain interspersed by drier, brighter and more showery interludes. It will also be rather windy at times, particularly in the northwest, with periods of gales likely here, along with the bulk of expected rainfall. Southern and eastern areas look best placed for the driest, brightest weather, with a chance that the south could develop more prolonged dry conditions. Temperatures are likely to be below average in the northwest, but near average further south and east, still with the potential for some warm days. By early June there is no strong signal for a prevailing weather type, but, on balance, unsettled conditions are considered more likely along with slightly below normal temperatures, especially in the northwest. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjp7dy02

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Jun 2015 to Saturday 20 Jun 2015: There is considerable uncertainty in the likely weather type through much of June. Overall, a rather mixed picture is likely, with rather unsettled conditions and near or below average temperatures at first, especially in the north. As we go further into June, there is a signal for higher pressure to become established across many areas which would lead to drier, warmer conditions for many, these perhaps most prolonged in the north. Updated at: 1221 on Fri 22 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 May 2015 to Friday 5 Jun 2015: Generally rather cloudy on Wednesday, with perhaps some light rain or drizzle in western areas at first. Some bright or sunny spells probably developing later, particularly in the south and east. Rain and freshening winds may reach the northwest by Wednesday evening. Much more unsettled on Thursday with wet and windy conditions developing across the country. The rest of the outlook period is expected to remain rather unsettled, with showers or some longer spells of rain, especially for northern areas where it could well be windy at times. The best of the drier and brighter conditions are expected in the south of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be below average in the northwest and near average further south and east, though with some warmer days later in the period. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Jun 2015 to Thursday 18 Jun 2015: There is considerable uncertainty in the likely weather type through to the middle of June. Overall a rather mixed picture is likely and it will probably be rather unsettled in the first part of June, especially in the northwest. There is a weak signal for higher pressure to become established across northern areas as we go further into June which would lead to drier conditions in the north and perhaps more unsettled in the south. There is also uncertainty with regards to the overall temperature pattern, but the most likely scenario is a slight warming through the month, in line with climatic trends. The warming trend perhaps more noticeable for northern areas. Updated at: 1248 on Wed 20 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 25 May 2015 to Wednesday 3 Jun 2015: Damp and cloudy conditions may affect the southeast at first on Monday, otherwise it will be cooler and clearer, with a mixture of sunshine and showers on Monday and probably also on Tuesday. Cloudier conditions with patchy rain may spread in from the northwest at sometime on Tuesday, although there is significant uncertainty regarding this aspect. Remaining rather unsettled generally for the rest of the forecast period with showers or longer spells of rain at times especially for northwestern areas, interspersed with some drier brighter spells. The best of the drier and brighter conditions are expected in the south of the UK. Temperatures are likely to remain below average generally, perhaps increasing to nearer average later. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

a bit of a head up Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 May 2015 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 May 2015 ISSUED 15:49 UTC Sun 17 May 2015 ISSUED BY: Dan Sharpening upper trough will drift slowly eastwards across the British Isles on Tuesday, coinciding with peak daytime heating. Cold mid levels atop SSTs and diurnal land temperature peak will result in 500-800 Jkg-1 CAPE, with widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing, most active across eastern Britain where longer land track to the showers, combined with slacker winds (and hence surface convergence) will aid in increasing lightning activity here - hence a broad SLGT for eastern areas. May extend SLGT farther W across the Midlands if conditions continue to look favourable nearer the time. Very little shear will result in rather disorganised convection, with pulse-type storms the most favoured mode. Given cold air aloft, some small hail is possible in any stronger cells, along with gusty winds. Showers/storms will tend to dissipate during the evening hours, with the majority of any lightning activity overnight being confined to the southern North Sea. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-05-19

This is for Tomorrow Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 May 2015 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 May 2015 ISSUED 11:52 UTC Sun 17 May 2015 ISSUED BY: Dan Frontal wave across southern half of Britain continues to slide eastwards through Monday morning, with embedded line convection given strong DLS across the front - however, convective depth is likely to be too shallow for any lightning activity (or at least the point probability is too low to warrant an ISOL). ... LINCOLNSHIRE TO EAST ANGLIA ... Secondary cold front, which will likely be producing some line convection over the Irish Sea and Scottish Borders at the beginning of this forecast period, will continue to migrate SEwards across across N Wales and N England through Monday morning, while weakening. However, with the sharpening upper trough advancing from the Atlantic, coupled with surface heating and strong DLS, expect cells along this line to reinvigorate as they cross Lincolnshire and Norfolk in particular through the midday and afternoon hours. CAPE is rather meagre given that the cold pool aloft is still yet to arrive, but 50-60+kts DLS may be able to compensate for this to produce some lightning from any stronger cells, along with some small hail. ... IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, SCOTLAND ... In the post-frontal environment, a sharpening upper trough will arrive from the Atlantic, accompanied by cold mid levels. This overspreading SSTs and diurnal heating inland will generate 300-500Jkg-1 CAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected to develop. Given rather weak DLS, convection is likely to be rather messy and disorganised, especially with old occlusion debris also moving through in the flow. As a result, have refrained from issuing a SLGT as it is currently difficult to pinpoint particular areas with the best lightning potential. However, with a rather slack surface pattern over N/NE Scotland, local wind convergence and topography will combine to produce some slow-moving heavy showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Have included a SLGT here due to better, more obvious forcing mechanisms, despite a lack of DLS to aid cell organisation. In either case, expect some small hail from stronger cells, with gusty winds too. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-05-18

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 May 2015 to Saturday 13 Jun 2015: The cooler than normal conditions are quite likely to last through until the end of May, with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Into early June, it is likely that the weather will revert to more normal conditions for early Summer with near average temperatures. Some dry and bright interludes are expected to continue, interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the northwest. The best of the drier and brighter weather will probably occur in the south. Updated at: 1216 on Sun 17 May 2015 http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 22 May 2015 to Sunday 31 May 2015: Friday is expected to be rather cool, cloudy and breezy, with some rain in the north and west. In comparison, southeastern parts should get away with dry, bright and somewhat warmer weather. The weekend then looks set to be rather cool, breezy and showery in the north, but largely dry, brighter and slightly warmer in the south. The rather cool and changeable theme is likely to continue for the rest of the month, with a mix of sunshine and occasional rain. The rain most prevalent in the north where it's likely to be breezy at times, while in the south dry and bright weather is more likely to dominate. Temperatures ranging from below normal in the north to about average in the south. http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 May 2015 to Saturday 13 Jun 2015: The cooler than normal conditions are quite likely to last through until the end of May, with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Into early June, it is likely that the weather will revert to more normal conditions for early Summer with near average temperatures. Some dry and bright interludes are expected to continue, interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the northwest. The best of the drier and brighter weather will probably occur in the south. Updated at: 1206 on Sat 16 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 May 2015 to Saturday 30 May 2015: Many parts of the UK are likely to have a dry and bright start on Thursday, though a few showers are possible in the north and east. Cloud amounts will tend to build across the west, with rain and strengthening winds developing in the west and northwest. This will then tend slowly spread south and east later on in the day and overnight into Friday. Cool, showery and often breezy conditions are then likely to follow and continue for much of the period, although there will be some drier brighter interludes, these most likely in the south and southwest. Temperatures should be near or a little below average across much of the UK with a risk of localised overnight frosts in the north. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 May 2015 to Saturday 13 Jun 2015: There continues to be a signal for a spell of cooler than normal conditions until the end of May. At the same time the south looks to become mainly dry with occasional showers in the north. Into early June, it is likely that the weather will revert to more normal conditions for early Summer with near average temperatures. Some dry and bright interludes are expected, interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the northwest. The best of the drier and brighter weather will probably occur in the south. Updated at: 1210 on Fri 15 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 May 2015 to Friday 29 May 2015: A mix of sunshine and showers on Wednesday, with the heaviest and most frequent showers likely to be in the south and east and the best of the drier and brighter weather in the north and west. The showers may turn heavy and thundery, with hail at times. A brief spell of more settled conditions develops in the south on Thursday as rain and strong winds move into the north. Cool, showery and often breezy conditions are then likely to develop from Friday onwards, although there will be some drier brighter interludes, these most likely in the south and southwest. Temperatures should be near or a little below average across much of the UK with a risk of localised overnight frosts in the north. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 May 2015 to Saturday 6 Jun 2015: After a rather cool and unsettled start to the period, especially in the north and east, there is a weak signal for a trend to warmer and more settled weather across many parts of the United Kingdom. This change perhaps most noticeable across northern and eastern areas. Updated at: 1312 on Fri 08 May 2015 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast