Stuart

Summary Weather roadblock Weather patterns that affect the British Isles tend to fall into one of two broad groups, known to meteorologists as mobile westerly or blocked. When the jet stream is screaming across the Atlantic, hurling depressions our way from the eastern seaboard of America, that's a mobile westerly. It's characterised by windy, wet but relatively mild autumn weather. When the jet stream starts to meander, the weather becomes more lethargic. High pressure builds to the west of the UK, acting as a barrier to Atlantic storms and hence the term "blocked". This normally leads to winds turning to the north or east, bringing cold weather our way. That's the pattern that will dominate our weather during at least the early part of this outlook. Once a block is in place, it often proves difficult to shift. Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010 Cold and colder As winds back round from east to north, so the feed of air becomes colder, originating in the Arctic. Widespread sharp frost develops under clear skies overnight, as temperatures fall well below freezing. The snow risk gradually increases as the colder air moves southwards. Areas exposed to the north to northeasterly winds are most likely to see significant falls of snow, especially over higher ground. Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010 Wintry spell continues The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue into the first week of December, with widespread overnight frost and the risk of icy surfaces and further snowfall, particularly in eastern parts. There is then a chance that southern and southwestern areas may turn a little less cold but also more unsettled as rain, sleet and snow tries to push up from the south, but the extent and speed of this encroachment will be open to doubt. Monday 6 December 2010 to Sunday 19 December 2010 Confidence is high that temperatures stay low The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, sheltered western areas may be drier than normal. There is a continuing signal for below or well below average temperatures, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here. Next week Will the block give way, or will wintry weather prevail? Find out next week. http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Cold with snow Bitterly cold for some http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20101122

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Dec 2010 to Monday 20 Dec 2010: The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here. Updated: 1154 on Sun 21 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Nov 2010 to Sunday 5 Dec 2010: The period will begin cold or very cold with overnight frost. Wintry showers will affect northern and eastern areas, particularly close to the coast but these will extend inland at times. These showers are likely to fall as snow even at lower levels and could give significant accumulations in places. Best of any brighter weather is likely in the west. The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue into the first week of December, with widespread overnight frost and the risk of icy surfaces and further snowfall, particularly in eastern parts. However, there is then also a chance that southern and southwestern areas may turn a little less cold but also more unsettled as rain, sleet and snow tries to push up from the south. Updated: 1123 on Sun 21 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Turning wintry Bitterly cold http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20101121

45% Chance of a white Christmas White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-11-20 12:50:00 Next Forecast: 2010-11-24 22:00:00 Synopsis This update brings an increased risk of at least a flake falling on Christmas day to pretty much everywhere across the country. Since the last update the long range charts have certainly trended to cold weather being in place for much of the country on the big day with the wind originating from a North/North Easterly direction especially. While the charts will continue to flip around, it is a change from the constant mild then cold then mild output. Focusing on the recent trend only, showers, perhaps wintry would be most likely with coasts seeing the highest frequency of showers. Some inland also but more sunshine on offer here. In addition to this we have considered the recent synoptics being shown for Late November/Early December as a notable cold spell for the time of year especially is forecast thanks to blocking occurring over Greenland. Such blocking patterns can be hard to shift or can quite easily re appear thus a higher risk of cold spells happening. In summary we expect quite a cold Christmas day with showers, perhaps wintry and these most likely in the North and closer to coasts where the showers will be most frequent. http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Dec 2010 to Sunday 19 Dec 2010: The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frosts, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, giving the risk of further rain, sleet and snow in some parts. Updated: 1142 on Sat 20 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Nov 2010 to Saturday 4 Dec 2010: The period will begin cold, with many central and western areas having some bright or sunny spells. Wintry showers will affect eastern areas, particularly along the coast but these will extend inland at times. The showers will start turning to snow even at lower levels at times. During the first weekend, there is a risk of more widespread sleet and snow for a time, with the possibility of some significant accumulations in places. The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue into the second week, with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy surfaces. There is a chance as we move into December that southern and southwestern parts will become more unsettled as rain, sleet and snow try to push up from the south. Updated: 1111 on Sat 20 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

ops here today one Snow, really? Turning colder http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20101120

looking at Today cfs looking like it going be a mild xmas day :lol:

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Dec 2010 to Saturday 18 Dec 2010: The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frosts, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, giving the risk of further rain, sleet and snow in some parts. Updated: 1151 on Fri 19 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Friday 3 Dec 2010: The period will begin cold, with many central and western areas having some bright or sunny spells. Wintry showers will affect eastern areas, particularly along the coast but these will extend inland at times. The showers will start turning to snow even at lower levels at times. During the first weekend, there is a risk of more widespread sleet and snow for a time, with the possibility of some significant accumulations in places. The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue into the second week, with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy surfaces. There is a chance as we move into December that southern and southwestern parts will become more unsettled as rain, sleet and snow try to push up from the south. Updated: 1148 on Fri 19 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Cold, variable cloud and showers Best to the west http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/49516-weather-online/page__st__527

UK Outlook for Friday 3 Dec 2010 to Friday 17 Dec 2010: Relatively cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be around average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with locally frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for many areas. Updated: 1154 on Thu 18 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Thursday 2 Dec 2010: A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells in central and western parts, but cloudier with showers in the east, perhaps frequent at first. The showers will be wintry over hills, particularly in the north. It will gradually turn colder through next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme continues into December for most parts, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather, although western parts may start to turn less cold. Updated: 1149 on Thu 18 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Lots of dry weather A cold north east wind setting in http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20101118

hope we can keep this in to xmas to we could see our 2nd snow next tue lol

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Dec 2010 to Thursday 16 Dec 2010: It is expected to remain cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average, or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, with frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for most areas. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 1 Dec 2010: Generally unsettled at first with showers, or longer spells of rain, mainly in the east of the UK. It will soon turn colder into next week. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues through to the beginning of December, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather. Updated: 1151 on Wed 17 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

A cold week Sleet showers are likely http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20101117

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010: A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather. Updated: 1208 on Tue 16 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 15 Dec 2010: It is expected to remain cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average, or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, with frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for most areas. Updated: 1154 on Tue 16 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Falling temperatures Windy too http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20101116

mmmmmmmmmmmmm Take you pick 30% Chance of a white Christmas White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-11-14 22:50:00 Next Forecast: 2010-11-20 23:00:00 Synopsis A reduced risk of snow on the big day on this update. Although still a mix and varied output on the long range charts, recent outputs have tended more towards high or low pressure bing in the wrong place to allow too mild an airflow for cold conditions. Clearly the models are struggling at the moment and the confidence at this range will always be low however to take the recent outputs only, it would seem it will be either quite wet or very dry, with little inbetween. Nonetheless, any wintry conditions seem unlikely away from higher ground currently. Expect this to change for the next update-the models are showing a very wide range of output. http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 14 Dec 2010: Remaining cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average or slightly below through the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Sunshine amounts should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it will be duller. Temperatures, especially by day, are likely to be well below average across the country, with frosty nights. Updated: 1144 on Mon 15 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html