Stuart

Monday 13 October Published at 10:00 Monthly Outlook Summary Keep holding onto your hats! After the very quiet and settled weather we all experienced during September, it came as quite a shock to have some very wet and windy conditions affecting the country in the early part of last week. On Monday we saw a gusts of wind up to storm force. South Uist in the Western Isles of Scotland recorded a gust of 84mph in the early hours of Monday morning. Even for the Outer Hebrides which often faces the brunt of Atlantic gales, that is still relatively rare. There was also prolonged heavy rain on Tuesday and into Wednesday over north east Scotland along with severe gales. People had to be evacuated from their homes on the sea front at Stonehaven in Kincardineshire due to the large waves. Heavy, thundery showers affected other parts of the country from Wednesday up to the weekend and there were various reports of a tornados from the Midlands up to Cumbria. Over the weekend the weather took a pause for breath with lighter winds and showers becoming fewer. Monday 13 October—Sunday 19 October More rain, but something milder to ease the pain. Contrasting fortunes to start the week. Much of England and Wales will have some wet and cool weather with fresh to strong northeasterly winds. It will be a much drier and brighter picture for Northern Ireland, Scotland and also the north of England with some sunshine and lighter winds. The drier, brighter weather then extending to most parts later on Tuesday and staying mostly dry in the north on Wednesday. There will be some cold nights in the north with a touch of frost but cloudier skies in the south will result in milder nights. Then all change for the second half of the week. A deep Atlantic low will approach western Ireland during Thursday with a band of wet and windy weather crossing the country. Then showers or longer spells of rain following on Friday and the weekend. A noticeable feature by the time we get to Saturday will be a much milder feel to the weather. Warmer southerly winds will mean milder nights than earlier in the week and also daytime temperatures will be several degrees above average. Monday 20 October—Sunday 26 October The low pressure spin-cycle continues. Low pressure looks set to dominate the weather for much of this period. This will mean further unsettled weather with outbreaks of rain. The rain will be most persistent and heaviest over western Scotland and Northern Ireland. More southern and eastern parts of the country will have some drier and brighter spells, especially later in the week. It will be quite windy at times too, again especially in the northwest. As we go through the week winds gradually swing from a southerly direction to a west or southwesterly direction. This will mean a mild start to the week but then temperatures returning to near normal for the end of October. Monday 27 October—Sunday 2 November Weather fireworks or soggy sparklers? At this stage, there is no sign of anything too dramatic weatherwise as we finish October and go into November. However there are likely to be periods of wet and windy weather crossing the country. The heaviest rain and strongest winds will be over more northern and western areas. There are indications of more prolonged drier, settled spells of weather for southern and eastern areas. At this time of year this will mean some problems with frost and fog. Overall, daytime temperatures are likely to be close to or even a little above average. Next week As we creep closer to the end of autumn, will the chill wind of winter begin to blow http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Oct 2014 to Sunday 9 Nov 2014: The autumnal, changeable conditions are likely to continue for many through the end of October and into the beginning of November. During this period, southern or southeastern areas could see more in the way of dry, settled spells, with sunshine at times making it feel mild, but also the risk of mist and fog developing overnight. However, the southwesterly flow is likely to bring spells of wet and windy weather which should affect mostly northern and western areas, but perhaps reaching other areas as well at times. Daytime temperatures likely to be near or above the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Sun 12 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Oct 2014 to Saturday 25 Oct 2014: After perhaps a dry, bright start in the east and northeast, spells of rain interspersed by sunny spells and showers are expected across much of the UK at first. It will also be windy with the risk of gales, perhaps severe in the far northwest. Remaining unsettled and windy through the weekend, with further rain or showers interspersed by drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will rise above, perhaps locally well above, average; especially by night. However, the temperatures by day will be tempered by the strong winds and rain. Into the following week, the unsettled conditions may gradually ease somewhat in the south with perhaps an increased incidence in drier spells, bringing the risk of fog and frost by night. Temperatures gradually easing back closer to the average for October. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says The seventh update makes no change to the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and the north of the UK. In the short to medium term a rather unsettled pattern is expected to continue. Following on from the settled and warm September the TWO view is this autumnal pattern to date favours a relatively mild westerly flow during the Christmas period but it should be pointed out that many people would dispute or disagree with this. In a relatively mild south westerly flow high ground in northern parts of the UK would have the best chance of seeing snow. Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10% Forecast issued Update 7, 11/10/2014 The computer says [issued 12/10/2014 07:05:37]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland Snow is expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Oct 2014 to Saturday 8 Nov 2014: The autumnal, changeable conditions are likely to continue for many through the end of October and the beginning of November. During this period, southern or southeastern areas could see more in the way of dry, settled spells, with sunshine at times making it feel mild, but also the risk of mist and fog developing overnight. However, the southwesterly flow is likely to bring spells of wet and windy weather which should affect mostly northern and western areas, but perhaps reaching other areas as well at times. Daytime temperatures likely to be near or above the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Sat 11 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Oct 2014 to Friday 24 Oct 2014: Wednesday will be a largely dry day with sunny spells developing, once any fog patches clear, with perhaps just a few showers around. Similar conditions into Thursday, but cloud and rain may push into the west later. Temperatures near or slightly below normal, but colder overnight with frost possible in the north. Probably starting dry at least across eastern areas on Friday, but rain and strong winds in the west will gradually push across the country. Thereafter, it will then remain rather windy with rain or showers, interspersed with drier and brighter interludes, best of these in the east and southeast. Temperatures will rise above average, especially by night. However, the temperatures by day will be tempered by the wind and rain. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Oct 2014 to Friday 7 Nov 2014: The autumnal, changeable conditions are likely to continue for many through the end of October and the beginning of November. During this period, southern or southeastern areas could see more in the way of dry, settled spells, with sunshine at times making it feel mild, but also the risk of mist and fog developing overnight. However, the southwesterly flow is likely to bring spells of wet and windy weather which should affect mostly northern and western areas, but perhaps reaching other areas as well at times. Daytime temperatures likely to be near or above the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Fri 10 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Oct 2014 to Thursday 23 Oct 2014: Tuesday will probably start dry with sunny spells once any mist/fog clears. Showers should develop and there is also a low risk of some strong wind and rain, heavy at times, spreading from the south across eastern parts at first. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal with frost possible in the north. The southeast should then have some dry and bright weather, however outbreaks of rain and strong winds will edge in from the west through the week, gradually spreading to all parts. It will then remain generally unsettled with rain or showers, but there will be some brief drier and brighter interludes, best of these in the east/southeast. Temperatures will rise to become rather warm for many, with a lower than normal risk of frost http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Oct 2014 to Thursday 6 Nov 2014: The autumnal, changeable conditions are likely to continue towards the end of October. Through this period, southern or southeastern areas could see more in the way of dry, settled spells, with warm sunshine at times but with the risk of mist and fog developing overnight. However, the southwesterly flow is likely to bring spells of wet and windy weather which should affect mostly northern and western areas, but perhaps affecting other areas as well at times. Daytime temperatures likely to be near or above the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Thu 09 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Oct 2014 to Wednesday 22 Oct 2014: Good spells of dry weather for many early next week, especially across eastern areas, with any showers lighter than of late. There is however a small chance of some rain in the far southeast. It should stay mostly dry across the north and east on Tuesday, whilst a band of rain with strong winds should move into southwestern areas, slowly spreading eastwards later. Temperatures initially around normal or a little below by day, but rather cold overnight with a risk of isolated air frost and mist/fog patches. As more unsettled conditions return from the west during the week, temperatures should rise with milder nights becoming more likely. The rest of the period should then be fairly autumnal with outbreaks of rain and showers, some strong winds but also brighter spells. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Oct 2014 to Wednesday 5 Nov 2014: A mostly settled and often dry end to October and start to November is expected, especially across southern and eastern areas. Warm sunny spells are then likely at times, especially in the south, although there will be the risk of mist and fog overnight. However a westerly flow will bring the chance of spells of wet and windy weather affecting the UK at times, mainly to the north and west, but perhaps affecting other areas at times too. Daytime temperatures are likely to be above the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Wed 08 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Oct 2014 to Tuesday 21 Oct 2014: The unsettled theme to the weather continues with outbreaks of rain or heavy, thundery showers at times, although there will be some drier and brighter interludes too. Showers are likely to be most frequent in western and northern coastal districts, and may be more scattered elsewhere. Winds are expected to be light to moderate at first however it will probably turn windier by the middle to end of next week with a risk of gales for many. Drier and brighter conditions are possible across southern and eastern parts by the end of the forecast period with a greater chance of settled and sunnier conditions. Temperatures will mostly be near the October average at first, but will rise above average from the middle of next week, especially the southeast. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Oct 2014 to Monday 3 Nov 2014: The current signal is for generally unsettled conditions to continue during this period. These will bring spells of wet and windy weather across the UK, but particularly in the north and west at first. However these spells are likely to be interspersed with some drier and clearer interludes at times, which will also bring an increasing risk of overnight frosts and fog patches, especially across northern parts. Daytime temperatures are then likely to be near to or above the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Mon 06 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Oct 2014 to Sunday 19 Oct 2014: Unsettled and windy in places on Friday with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Some of these will be heavy with a risk of thunder. Temperatures will be near, or a little below, average and feeling rather cold in the strong wind and rain. There is then risk of more organised heavy rain crossing southern England on Saturday, with sunny spells and showers continuing elsewhere. It will also stay breezy. These unsettled conditions are then likely to continue into the following week, with further periods of rain and strong wind interspersed by brighter days with showers. Southeastern and eastern parts will be most likely to see the best of any drier weather. Daytime temperatures will mostly be near, and occasionally above the October average, and often relatively mild overnight. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Monthly Outlook Summary Change of month did bring a change in weather September 2014 will go down as the driest September on record. Figures issued by the Met Office show it had broken records going all the way back to 1910. It was not only the driest September on record but also the 4th warmest September on record. The dry September followed a wet August. Bank holiday Monday at the end of August saw 38mm of rain in central London, with another 12mm on the Tuesday. This was close to the average rainfall for the whole of August. By September, the low pressure moved away and high pressure became established across the British Isles bringing the dry and settled weather. It is unusual for an area of high pressure to last all month. Normally after about 10 days it will tend to weaken or move away and be replaced by weather fronts bringing outbreaks of rain. In September, as one high centre began to weaken, a new one would move in from the Atlantic and take its place and so prolonging the mostly dry weather until the end of the month. So what does October have in store? Well the influence of the high pressure kept settled conditions for the first few days before finally moving off into the Continent. This has allowed an area of low pressure to steadily move in from the Atlantic bringing outbreaks of rain and much cooler temperatures. Monday 6 October—Sunday 12 October What a difference a week makes in world of weather In complete contrast to September and even the first few days of October, low pressure will dominate our weather in the coming week with showers or longer spells of rain and it will also be windy at times. In fact a spell of wet and windy weather will continue to cross the country during Monday. This will be followed by brighter, less windy weather on Tuesday although heavy rain and gales will persist across the north of Scotland. Elsewhere, it will be a mixture of sunny spells and a scattering of sometimes heavy showers with temperatures close to normal for early October. During Wednesday and Thursday, low pressure will remain close by. This will mean showers for parts of the of the UK, even merging at times to give some longer spells of rain. Southerly winds will strengthen again with gales developing over southern and western coastal areas. In contrast, northern Scotland will be drier, brighter and less windy. The unsettled theme will continue on Friday and into the weekend with further showers, prolonged at times although the winds will ease down. Daytime temperatures rising a little above normal and nights will be mild. Monday 13 October—Sunday 19 October Typically autumnal The unsettled weather pattern will continue for much of the week. There will be blustery showers, most frequent and heaviest over western areas, and once again these could merge at times to give a longer spell of rain. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be across Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Temperatures will be very close to or even a little higher than normal for the middle of October. It will often be windy, especially in the north. Monday 20 October—Sunday 2 November Halloween approaches. Will the weather be scary? Still a changeable look to the weather with further bands of rain crossing the country, heavy at times in the north and west. Brief ridges of high pressure will bring drier interludes between the weather systems. However high pressure at this time of year brings its own set of problems. The light winds and clear skies at nights will lead to a touch of frost and also allow mist and fog patches to form. Daytime temperatures are expected to remain close to or a little above normal. Next week Will we see a change to colder weather? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Oct 2014 to Sunday 2 Nov 2014: Current indications suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather, particularly in the north and west at first. However, these are likely to be interspersed with drier and clearer interludes, which will also bring an increasing risk of overnight frosts and fog patches, especially across northern parts. Daytime temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Sun 05 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Oct 2014 to Saturday 18 Oct 2014: Unsettled on Thursday and Friday with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Some of these will be heavy with a risk of thunder. Often windy, with the risk of gales in exposure. Temperatures will be near, or a little below, average and feeling rather cold in the strong winds and rain. Remaining unsettled and windy at times into the weekend with further showers or longer spells of rain, especially across northern and western areas. The changeable conditions are then likely to continue into the following week, with further periods of rain and wind interspersed by brighter days with showers. Southeastern and eastern parts will be most likely to see the best of any drier weather. Daytime temperatures mostly near the October average, but perhaps becoming a little above later. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says The sixth update reduces the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and the north. A change to much mode cyclonic conditions is now expected during the first half of October following on from the settled and warm September. The TWO view is this autumnal pattern favours a relatively mild westerly flow during the Christmas period but it should be pointed out that many people would dispute or disagree with this. In a relatively mild south westerly flow high ground in northern parts of the UK would have the best chance of seeing snow. Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10% Forecast issued Update 6, 04/10/2014 The computer says [issued 04/10/2014 19:05:33]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands. -http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Oct 2014 to Saturday 1 Nov 2014: Current indications suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather, particularly in the north and west at first. However, these are likely to be interspersed with drier and clearer interludes, which will also bring an increasing risk of overnight frosts and fog patches, especially across northern parts. Daytime temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Sat 04 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Oct 2014 to Friday 17 Oct 2014: Generally unsettled on Wednesday and Thursday with most regions seeing a mixture of sunny spells and showers, some heavy. However, central, eastern and southern parts may be affected by a spell of more persistent rain for a time. It will often be windy, especially in exposed western and also English Channel coasts, with the risk of gales. Temperatures will be near average, or a little below, but feeling cold at times in the wind and rain. Whilst the wind will gradually ease into the weekend, further showers are likely, especially across the northwest, with spells of more persistent rain continuing across southern areas at times. The unsettled conditions are then likely to continue through the following week, although southeastern and eastern parts are more likely to see prolonged drier periods. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Oct 2014 to Wednesday 29 Oct 2014: Current indications now suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather. However these are likely to be interspersed with drier and clearer interludes, which will also bring an increasing risk of overnight frosts and fog patches, especially across northern parts. Daytime temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. Issued at: 0500 on Wed 01 Oct 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Oct 2014 to Tuesday 14 Oct 2014: During the weekend and into the following week most places will be generally unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, which are likely to be heavy at times, mainly across western and northern parts. There is also likely to be some drier and brighter interludes in between. Breezy at times, with a risk of gales in the north and west. Temperatures generally on the cool side, especially in the wet and windy spells. There will be a risk of local frost and fog patches developing where clear skies prevail and winds fall light during the nights, particularly across northern parts. Thereafter the unsettled conditions are likely to continue across most areas. However, it is possible that later in the period eastern and southeastern may become increasingly drier and brighter http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Oct 2014 to Monday 27 Oct 2014: Current indications now suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather. However these are likely to be interspersed with drier and clearer interludes, which will also bring an increasing risk of overnight frosts and fog patches, especially across northern parts. Daytime temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. Updated: 1301 on Sun 28 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Friday 3 Oct 2014 to Sunday 12 Oct 2014: Turning unsettled and windy from the north and west during Friday and Saturday as a band of cloud and rain, locally heavy, moves southeastwards. Mostly dry ahead of this, with the best of any sunny spells in the southeast. Clearer weather following with locally heavy showers pushing into northwestern parts. Daytime temperatures will be generally near normal, perhaps warm in the south, but on the cold side during nights. Into the following week, it is likely to gradually become more unsettled across all areas, with periods of wet and windy weather, albeit with drier and brighter periods in between. Daytime temperatures mostly likely on the cooler side, with a risk of local frost and fog developing where clear skies prevail overnight. Updated: 1136 on Sun 28 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

TheWeatherOutlook says The fifth update makes no change to the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and the north. There is thought to be a reasonable chance of predominantly anticyclonic conditions developing during the early part of the winter with a chance of colder continental incursions. In this type of set up southern and eastern areas would be most likely to see colder conditions and a chance of snow flurries. Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% Forecast issued Update 5, 27/09/2014 The computer says [issued 28/09/2014 07:11:30]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Snow is expected in Wales Snow is expected in the Midlands Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north Snow is expected in Scotland Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland Snow is expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast