Stuart

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Oct 2014 to Sunday 26 Oct 2014: After a settled start across many parts, particularly towards the south and east, there are signs that conditions will gradually turn more unsettled through this period. This suggests an increasing risk of rain and stronger winds at times with temperatures by day falling closer to the seasonal average. Despite this, there are likely to be drier interludes with some bright or sunny spells by day. In such spells, there is an increased risk of frost and overnight mist or fog patches overnight under any clear spells. Updated: 1014 on Sat 27 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Oct 2014 to Saturday 11 Oct 2014: Dry and bright in the northwest initially on Thursday, but Friday is expected to bring a return to rather unsettled conditions, with occasional wet and windy weather, and a risk of local gales. More settled weather towards the southeast, with variable cloud and some sunshine, but also a risk of mist and fog patches developing overnight. Daytime temperatures will be generally near normal or rather warm, but on the cold side during nights. It is likely to turn more unsettled across much of the UK later in the period, with periods of wet and windy weather, albeit with drier and brighter periods in between. Daytime temperatures will drop a little during the second half of the period, although varying a lot from day to day. Updated: 1118 on Sat 27 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Oct 2014 to Saturday 25 Oct 2014: After a settled start across many parts, particularly towards the south and east, there are signs that conditions will gradually turn more unsettled through this period. This suggests an increasing risk of rain and stronger winds at times with temperatures by day falling closer to the seasonal average. Despite this, there are likely to be drier interludes with some bright or sunny spells by day. In such spells, there is an increased risk of frost and overnight mist or fog patches overnight under any clear spells. Updated: 1258 on Fri 26 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Oct 2014 to Friday 10 Oct 2014: Mostly light rain and stronger winds will affect the far north and northwest of the UK at times. Elsewhere, it will be a mostly dry start to the period with variable cloud and some sunshine. Temperatures by day will be generally near normal to rather warm, but it could turn locally chilly in the north with some fog patches across southern areas. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend, with largely dry conditions prevailing, although more cloud and light rain may push southeastwards for a time. By the end of the period, it is likely to turn more unsettled from the west with an increasing risk of rain and strong winds, with temperatures falling closer to the seasonal average. Updated: 1158 on Fri 26 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Oct 2014 to Thursday 23 Oct 2014: The broadly northwest-southeast split in the weather conditions is showing signs of persisting through mid-October. This pattern would leave southern, central and eastern parts tending to see the best of the weather with conditions often fine and dry. Occasional bouts of rain should still be expected, and mist and fog patches may be a problem during morning rush hours. Under the fine weather it should still feel pleasant with temperatures a little above average for the time of year. Further northwest, conditions are likely to be more unsettled with more frequent outbreaks of rain, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds. Temperatures here should be closer to average or perhaps even just below at times. Updated: 1244 on Wed 24 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Sep 2014 to Wednesday 8 Oct 2014: It is going to be rather cloudy to start. There should also be rain at times, particularly in the north/northwest where it will also become breezier, with gales possible in the far north. The best of any brightness will be towards the south and east where it could stay largely dry. Temperatures will be mostly near normal or rather warm by day, but widely well above average at night. Through the rest of the period it should continue generally dry with sunny spells towards the south and east, but more unsettled in the west and northwest with some rain and strong winds. Overnight temperatures should turn cooler with an increasing chance of ground frost, and some mist or fog patches. Updated: 1201 on Wed 24 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Sep 2014 to Monday 6 Oct 2014: Fairly cloudy at first, though some sunny intervals developing for central, southern and eastern parts of the UK. Outbreaks of rain are expected for northern and western areas, more persistent for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, although clearer, showery weather should follow for a time. It will be quite windy here too. Temperatures generally near or a little above normal. Into the following week, the north and west are likely to remain the windiest and most unsettled parts of the UK, with the best of the weather further south and east. However, a little rain is to be expected here at times. Temperatures should be a little above normal for most. This general northwest-southwest split in the weather is then likely to continue into the start of October. Updated: 1203 on Mon 22 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Oct 2014 to Tuesday 21 Oct 2014: The broadly northwest-southeast split in weather conditions expected to become established for late September and early October is then showing signs of persisting into mid-October. This pattern would leave southern, central and eastern parts tending to see the best of the weather with conditions often fine and dry. Occasional bouts of rain should still be expected, and mist and fog patches may be a problem during morning rush hours but under fine weather it should feel pleasant. Further northwest, conditions are likely to be more unsettled with more frequent outbreaks of rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, temperatures here then often closer to average or perhaps even just below at times. Updated: 1203 on Mon 22 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Monthly Outlook Summary The driest start to September for 50 years The first half of September has been unusually dry and mild across large swathes of the UK with provisional Met Office statistics suggesting temperatures have been well above average and rainfall amounts have been much below the seasonal norm. Figures up to 15th September show there has been a measly 6.7mm of rain across the UK; this is only 7% of the average 96mm. The question is though - will it continue? Read on to find out more... Monday 22 September—Sunday 28 September The end to high pressure is in sight This week finally sees the end of high pressure dominating the forecast, though, for the start of the coming week at least it is still providing us with some glorious sunshine. As we look through the forecast for this week the weather turns progressively more unsettled with areas of low pressure bringing spells of rain towards the UK from the Atlantic. This gradually sets up a northwest -southeast split; the best of the weather for England and Wales whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland should expect spells of rain and stronger winds. Monday 29 September—Sunday 5 October No change in the weather patterns In similarity to the rest of September it looks like the weather setup is not going to change significantly as we look ahead in the period. The northwest - southeast split is set to continue with the lion's share of the sunshine and driest conditions expected for southern England and Wales. For Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland spells of wind and rain could mean that October gets off to a much wetter start than September did! Monday 6 October—Sunday 19 October Looking futher ahead The split in conditions over the country is more likely than not to continue as we head into mid-October as well. In this situation day time temperatures are likely to be around average for the most part, however, in any sunnier spells especially in the south and east it should feel pleasantly warm. However, as is typical with October nights it will be feeling chilly overnight with some mist and fog patches. Next week Will September continue to be dry - find out more next week. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Oct 2014 to Monday 20 Oct 2014: The broadly northwest-southeast split in weather conditions expected to become established for late September and early October is then showing signs of persisting into mid-October. This pattern would leave southern, central and eastern parts tending to see the best of the weather with conditions often fine and dry. Occasional bouts of rain should still be expected, and mist and fog patches may be a problem during morning rush hours but under fine weather it should feel pleasant. Further northwest, conditions are likely to be more unsettled with more frequent outbreaks of rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, temperatures here then often closer to average or perhaps even just below at times. Updated: 1235 on Sun 21 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Sep 2014 to Sunday 5 Oct 2014: Fairly cloudy at first, though some sunny intervals developing for central, southern and eastern parts of the UK. Outbreaks of rain are expected for northern and western areas, more persistent for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, although clearer, showery weather should follow for a time. It will be quite windy here too. Temperatures generally near or a little above normal. Into the following week, the north and west are likely to remain the windiest and most unsettled parts of the UK, with the best of the weather further south and east. However, a little rain is to be expected here at times. Temperatures should be a little above normal for most. This general northwest-southwest split in the weather is then likely to continue into the start of October. Updated: 1159 on Sun 21 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

TheWeatherOutlook says The fourth update increases the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and reduces it for the north. The reason for this is recent trends perhaps pointing towards more anticyclonic conditions developing during the early part of the winter with a chance of colder continental incursions. In this type of set up southern and eastern areas would be most likely to see colder conditions and a chance of snow flurries. Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% Forecast issued Update 4, 20/09/2014 The computer says [issued 21/09/2014 12:46:39]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Snow is expected in Wales Snow is expected in the Midlands Snow is expected in the north Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland Snow is expected in Northern Ireland Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland Snow is expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Oct 2014 to Sunday 19 Oct 2014: The north-south split in the weather is more likely than not to continue for most of the period. The best of the drier and brighter conditions are expected to be across the south and east of the UK. Here, daytime temperatures are likely to be around, and often above average with some warm sunshine. However, it could turn quite chilly during the nights, with a risk of fog patches in places. Northern and western parts are likely to see more frequent outbreaks of rain and strong winds, with gales in the far north. Daytime temperatures here are set to be below or close to average. Updated: 1234 on Sat 20 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Sep 2014 to Saturday 4 Oct 2014: Southern parts of the UK will be dry at first with sunny spells but it will be cloudier in the north and west with rain at times. The rain will spread southwards, gradually weakening, although some southern and southeastern areas will probably remain dry. Brighter, showery weather may follow to the northwest. It will be quite windy, with gales in the far north, and temperatures close to normal. Into the weekend the most likely scenario is for northwestern parts of the UK to see the most unsettled conditions with strong winds and outbreaks of rain. Further south and east there should be lengthier drier periods interspersed with occasional rain. It may become warm again here. This pattern of weather is expected to stay similar into the following week. Updated: 1128 on Sat 20 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Sep 2014 to Friday 3 Oct 2014: Southern parts of the UK will be dry at first with sunny spells but it will be cloudier in the north and west with rain at times. These damp conditions will spread southwards with rain weakening, and some southern and southeastern areas will probably remain dry. Brighter, showery weather may follow to the northwest. It will be quite windy, with gales in the far north, and temperatures close to normal. Into the weekend the most likely scenario is for northwestern parts of the UK to see the most unsettled conditions with strong winds and outbreaks of rain. Further south and east there should be lengthier drier periods interspersed with occasional rain. It may become warm again here. This pattern of weather is expected to stay similar into the following week. Updated: 1210 on Fri 19 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Oct 2014 to Thursday 16 Oct 2014: The first half of October is likely to see more changeable conditions across the UK, with a mixture of fine and settled weather, interspersed with occasional unsettled spells. The drier and brighter conditions, with some warm sunshine, is then expected to be most prolonged across the south and east, whilst outbreaks of rain would then be most frequent across the north and west. During the more settled conditions daytime temperatures are likely to be around, and often above, average although it could turn quite chilly overnight with a risk of fog patches in places. However during any more unsettled spells, daytime temperatures are then likely to be below or close to average. Updated: 1242 on Wed 17 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Sep 2014 to Wednesday 1 Oct 2014: It is likely to remain largely settled at the start of next week, especially in the south, but a little cooler, especially at night. Variable amounts of cloud in most areas with some bright or sunny spells, but thicker cloud in northwestern parts with some rain or drizzle. Later in the week and thereafter, these more unsettled conditions are likely to spread southeastwards, bringing an increasing risk of spells of rain to much of the UK, but always heaviest towards the north and west, with the best of the dry and bright conditions in the south and southeast. Winds mostly light across the south, but stronger in the northwest, with an increasing risk of gales. Temperatures generally around or somewhat above average, perhaps still warm at times in the southeast. Updated: 1235 on Wed 17 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Sep 2014 to Tuesday 14 Oct 2014: The end of September and the first half of October is likely to see more changeable conditions across the UK, with a mixture of fine and settled weather, interspersed with occasional unsettled spells. The drier and brighter conditions, with some warm sunshine, is then expected to be most prolonged across the south and east, whilst outbreaks of rain would then be most frequent across the north and west. During the more settled conditions daytime temperatures are then likely to be around and often above average, although chilly overnight with a risk of fog patches in places. However during any unsettled spells daytime temperatures are then likely to be below or close to average. Updated: 1302 on Mon 15 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Sep 2014 to Monday 29 Sep 2014: It is likely to remain largely dry and settled for most at first, but it may turn more unsettled from the northwest later in this period. The weekend should be fine for many with variable cloud and some sunny spells, although there is a risk of the odd heavy shower in the south on Saturday. It is likely to be warm too, although perhaps not quite as warm as on previous days. The fine weather should persist next week, feeling warm by day in sunny spells, but some cool nights are also likely. It may turn windy and more changeable in the north and west towards the end of that week, with an increasing risk of showers or spells of rain, but the south and east should remain mostly fine. Updated: 1214 on Mon 15 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Monday 15 September Published at 10:00 Monthly Outlook Summary Feeling more like summer! September so far has been warm and dry, quite a contrast to August which was the coldest since 1993 and the wettest since 2004. That did skew our summer's statistics away from the overall warm and dry theme characterised by June and July, so some may think it quite considerate of September doing August's work. Meteorologically speaking however we're into autumn now and the nights are getting longer and cooler, as we saw last week; the warm afternoons have followed cool and at times misty mornings. So where might this week take us? Well, perhaps even closer to summer than we've already been enjoying. The reason for the settled weather is a blocking anticyclone which has been sitting over the UK and keeping Atlantic weather fronts at bay. In the last few days it's slipped over to Scandinavia, but continues to dominate our weather and will introduce a continental southeasterly flow across the country. This means temperatures could rise by more than five degrees above average where the sun shines. As we're only in September it's too early to call it an Indian one, but how long will this extension to summer last? Monday 15 September—Sunday 21 September Temperatures on the rise Despite this week's overall dry theme for the UK, rain greeted central and eastern parts on Monday morning. This will become increasingly confined to eastern Scotland through today. Otherwise it's mainly fine with sunny spells, but some showers will possible in central and eastern areas. For the rest of the week it will be dry with sunny spells for most, and thanks to that southeasterly flow it will become very warm by Thursday in parts of the south and west. Areas of cloud are expected to continue affecting northeastern parts of the country at times, with some occasional spots of rain or drizzle. There is a chance of some showers in the southwest at times, but these will be isolated, and the fine weather should persist through the weekend. Monday 22 September—Sunday 28 September The anticyclone's dominance diminishes Areas of high pressure are known for being stubborn and difficult to shift. Sometimes weather forecast models can be too quick to move on these blocking highs, so such situations can be characterised by noticeable disagreement between different computer models. The presence of a tropical weather system, Edouard, in the Atlantic this week is also likely to add uncertainty into next week's forecast, even though most weather models seem to suggest currently that it will remain in the Atlantic and be steered towards the Azores. All this considered it seems likely at the time of writing that the settled, anticyclonic weather will continue into the first part of next week. It may turn windy and more changeable in the northwest towards the end of next week, with an increasing risk of showers or spells of rain, but the southeast should mostly remain fine. Monday 29 September—Sunday 12 October Change of month, change of weather? It seems fairly common to be writing about a change in weather type as we approach a change in month, and it seems that this forecast will not present an exception to that rule. However, having noted above the tendency for weather models to trend towards a more Atlantic-influenced weather pattern rather more soon than a blocking area of high pressure would wish to allow, confidence is lower for such a change. Nevertheless, model consensus favours somewhat changeable conditions for the end of September and early October, with settled weather interspersed with occasional unsettled spells. The drier periods with some warm sunshine are expected to be most prolonged across the south and east, whilst outbreaks of rain may tend to be most frequent across the north and west. During the more settled conditions daytime temperatures are likely to be around and often above average, although chilly overnight with a risk of fog patches. During any unsettled spells daytime temperatures are likely to be below or close to average. Next week Will we see a genuine Indian summer? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

TheWeatherOutlook says The third update slightly increases the chances of snow falling in northern areas on Christmas day, but generally a fairly average picture is expected. This means a predominantly westerly flow with the best chance of snow falling over higher ground in northern parts of the UK. Snow over low ground would not be expected in this type of set-up. Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10% Forecast issued Update 3, 14/09/2014 The computer says [issued 15/09/2014 07:17:22]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Snow is expected in Wales Snow is expected in the Midlands Snow is expected in the north Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland Snow is expected in Northern Ireland Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland Snow is expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Sep 2014 to Sunday 12 Oct 2014: The end of September and early October will see most regions having periods of fine weather, with some warm sunshine at times. However, these fine periods are likely to be interspersed with occasional spells of cloudier, more unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain. Western parts are most likely to see the more frequent bouts of unsettled weather, leaving eastern parts seeing the better fine and dry spells. Daytime temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average during any fine weather. Nights, however, may well be on the chilly side with a risk of fog patches in places. During any unsettled spells daytime temperatures are more likely to be near or below average leading to a cooler feel. Updated: 1359 on Sat 13 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Sep 2014 to Saturday 27 Sep 2014: Remaining largely settled and dry across much of the UK, with sunny spells and variable cloud. A few showers are possible across the northeast on Thursday, before easing away Friday. Most areas then stay dry into the weekend, although there will be an increasing risk of showers or longer spells of rain across southwestern parts, with winds likely to freshen as well. Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side, although dropping closer to normal through the weekend. Thereafter, the signal is for more unsettled conditions to develop, especially across western parts. This will bring more frequent spells of rain and stronger winds, but these should be interspersed by drier and brighter conditions. The best of the sunny spells will then be in the east. Updated: 1203 on Sat 13 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Sep 2014 to Saturday 11 Oct 2014: During late September and into October most regions can expect to see periods of fine weather, with some pleasantly warm sunshine at times. However, these fine periods are likely to be interspersed with occasional spells of cloudier, more unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain. Southwestern parts are probably most likely to see the more frequent bouts of unsettled weather, leaving eastern parts most probably seeing the better fine and dry spells. Daytime temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average during fine weather leaving conditions feeling pleasantly warm. Nights, however, may well be on the chilly side with a risk of fog patches in places. During any unsettled weather daytime temperatures are more likely to be near or below average giving a cool feel. Updated: 1234 on Fri 12 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Sep 2014 to Friday 26 Sep 2014: High pressure still largely in control at the start of the period, with largely settled conditions across many central and northern areas, albeit with a risk of showers. However, there may be a trend towards more unsettled weather as showers or longer outbreaks of rain begin to spread from the southwest, with winds likely to freshen as well. Temperatures will continue on the warm side, but will drop a little through next weekend. After that, the most likely trend is for a change to a more unsettled period of weather for many, with wind and rain much more of a feature than of late, particularly for the northwest. The best of any dry and sunny spells will be in the south. Updated: 1147 on Fri 12 Sep 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html