chionomaniac

met office last month review http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

Max so far this winter is Longtown (Herefordshire) with a temperature of 16.5 °C on 6th dec c

Thanks again -Its taken a few days to absorb the latest info! Regarding Atmospheric Rossby waves in the troposphere - the chances of receiving cold weather are far greater if these waves are more numerous and with greater amplitude? If the jet is flat then there are fewer of these waves and we are more likely to get zonal type weather in this country - such as seen in MJO phases 3-5 when there is increased tropical convection. Planetary zonal waves are different to atmospheric rossby waves as they are based in the stratosphere but can have an affect on the troposphere as you describe above. I think its getting clearer in my head. c

Sadly it appears that a climber has fallen and died on Striding Edge /Hellvellyn yesterday. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/7185720.stm c

Thanks once again brickfielder I have had a long read around the subject with the links you have provided. I realise that to understand stratospheric warming/cooling I needed to fully understand how the QBO works.I have read up on this(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation) and now feel that I can visualise how this oscillation pattern occurs now. Are the Rossby waves the waves flowing towards the poles from the QBO and are we in a westerly or easterly phase? Looking at the latest Stratosphere temps fro this year am I correct in reading that the stratosphere is cooler(marked by the greens) than average which may then have a bearing on the Arctic oscillation keeping us in a positive (less favourable?) phase. Current AO Neutral -heading positive Arctic oscillation good explaination - http://www.nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/ar...scillation.html Also am I right in saying that when the stratosphere warms above the poles and this warming breaks through the tropopause into the troposphere then this warmth displaces the cold polar air into latitudes further south? Please feel free to correct me if anything is wrong and if anyone else has anything else to add on the subject to help my understanding the please do so. I think I am getting there on a complex subject! c Other useful link I used http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warmings

Thanks Brickfielder, I'm a bit busy at work but its something i've been wondering for a while so I will read and digest this evening

After reading many of GP posts I have gathered that a cold polar stratosphere is not good for our own long term cold prospects. Why is that? And what are the mechanisns involved when the stratophere warms to transfer the cold? Thanks in anticipation. c Ps any help in explaining the stratosphere and stratosphere anomoly charts would also be appreciated!

I don't know if these were the last, but they were certainly noteworthy! Feb 1991 and before that Jan 1987 I love looking at those charts

Latest manley is 5.3c. Shooting up like a hot air balloon.

Looking at the spreadsheets, that is some amount of work, so thanks from me.One point regarding the poll that I have noticed is that 41 votes have been cast so far but the bottom counter only reads 37. Is there a simple explaination for this? c

A brave call Roger, the overnight high minima may work in your favour. I don't know with this cool zonality but it seems that every time I look it does seem a little less cool. c

The coldest temp recorded in the UK is -27.2 °C at Braemar, Aberdeenshire, 10 January 1982 and 11 February 1895 and Altnaharra, Highland, 30 December 1995 I don't know what the lowest daytime maxima is. Anyone? c

It looks like there may have been a grain of truth originally then! But in more recent times the coldest day is later in the year. I bet it won't be too long until it is in March! c

St Hilary's Day -13th January has traditionally been heralded the coldest day of winter. This probably dates back to 1086 when a great frost started spreading over the country on St Hilary's Day. It lasted well into March and is said to be the severest Arctic spell the country has ever seen. This year it looks far from likely that St Hilary's Day will be any where near cold looking at the charts: 850s ground temps Looking back over the last 50 years their may be a few times when St Hilary's day may have been one of the years coldest - the usual suspects!: 1963 1981 1987 (the coldest of the three) However most years St Hilary's Day is mild with no noticeable cold. In fact one fairly recent year stands out- Ice creams all round! 1997 Does anyone know what statistically this country's coldest day actually is? c

Does anyone know if there have been any avalanches up Hellvelyn/Striding Edge?

Thanks I can vote now!

Is the Manley CET figure (month end figure) the one from Philip Eden on climate uk? Thanks c

Drat dropped 19 places with the revised figures! Not to worry - still another 11 months to catch up. c

The first panel was set up in the winter of 1963 after the pools companies had been losing money hand over fist after 3 successive pools coupons had been wiped out by postponements caused by the weather. It was set up with "The Five Just Men" - retired footballers Ted Drake, Tom Finney, Tommy Lawton and George Young, and retired referee Arthur Ellis. They first sat on Saturday 26 January 63. They were paid £100 each for there trouble and met many times for the remainder of that winter. I am sure that if they had a pools panel before that winter it would win in the most sittings category! c

Local knowledge sometimes comes in handy! But I have also read this in a number of weather related books. Sadly I think 8 people died and the avalanche was on Boxing Day in the 1830's. c

Lewes East Sussex ? I think there is a pub at the bottom of the hill called The Snowdrop Inn!

I agree! But I think for this particular era it may be that reading "modern era" is synominous with "mild era" and to all snow lovers that is very frustrating!(but probably true) c

last month I pattern matched La Nina and solar minimum years, then added 1 degree for the so called "modern winter". Doing the same for Jan I will go for 5.2ºC c

Thanks John, I guess if you were going to make a forecast based on average conditions without the use of models for Christmas the two would be pretty similar do you think? Still time for change but I wouldn't bet against your first forecast proper being quite accurate. c

The met office have the highest temp yesterday as 15.3 at Kinlochewe http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html Is this the official reading to use or is there another one? c