chionomaniac

I find it interesting that those 5 occasions have all been in the last 20 years TM. Have you had many near misses to the 960mb mark prior to and since 1989? I also find it interesting that even though the pressure has been so low that damage has not been more extensive and widespread than reported. I guess that the isobar pressure gradient just wasn't steep enough over the UK for this to occur. Perhaps this has something to do with the fact that the jet stream released the storm to the west of Ireland and therefore deepening stopped before it reached us. I have a feeling that the country had a big let off today and with just a slight change in circumstances the media over hype would have been merited. c

Hadley still 6.3C after yesterday came in at 6.3C.

Hadley CET up to 6.3ºC today. I reckon it will hover around the low 6s until mid month.

A coolish day of 3.9C yesterday leaving the CET at 6.6C still 2.1C above average for this time in March! This should drop further by tomorrow.

34.8ºC probably Heathrow in Early August a few hours before a cracking thunderstorm.

That would be a new thread-" the lowest temperature of spring" - wouldn't it ? Does anyone know how often spring has delivered a colder temp than winter? Apologies for wildly off topic. c

7.3ºc for this month

Thanks John. I too find it a very complex subject and this is with just scratching the surface. GP and Brickfielder have been a great help in unscrabbling this. c

John do you think the long range modelling of both the GFS and ECM are taking into consideration the knock on effects of stratosphere warming filtering down when programming tentative pressure rises to the north? I realise that his is big time FI, but trends have to start somewhere don't they? I have read elsewhere on here today that strong La Nina signals may override any warming events but I guess we will have to wait and see. c

Thats what I originally thought would be the best (worst) weather for keeping the temperature constant for a period of time. I also wondered would daytime freezing fog be another situation when the temperature not fluctuate much but wasn't so sure. c

Does anyone know what the minimum diurnal range has been in this country? I know that there has been days when the temperature has seemed to stay the same but has this actually happened in practice or to within 0.5ºc say? What weather would be more likely to have a smaller range? c

oops thought it was rather large I'll get my coat as well!

CET yesterday had min of -3c and max of 14.2c a diurnal range of 17.2c

I believe some members here have reported large temperature drops before and around dusk akin to a vigorous cold front passing through. On the coast down here the sea moderates and we just don't get the range or rate of change. c

I have used this site in the past to help with my winter Cet guesses. http://www.ccb.ucar.edu/lanina/report/mantua.html It doesn't give the actual numerical strength but is a fairly good guide. c

Yes what is the first day ever in the year that 21ºc has been reached in the UK? c

http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html Here is an interesting site detailing how snowy winters have been since 1875. We have not had a very snowy winter since 1978/79 and nothing above average for over 10 years. c

I couldn't agree more. It has got to the point that whenever the GFS projects any cold of any substance it will look good, be upgraded and have everyone rubbing their hands with glee upto 4-5 days away. Then differences between the GFS and other models start to occur until 2-3 days out. We all think how can the GFS backtrack now having shown this projected cold spell for so long, but backtrack it does until T+0 when the -5 isotherm brushes south for 5 minutes. I think I would now be more surprised if a cold spell predicted at around T+96 came off than if a back track occurred! Perhaps one day a cold snap will be shown with the -5ºc isotherm at T+120 for 5 minutes and this be slowly upgraded so that by T+0 the whole country is under -10ºc air with no end to it in sight....Dreaming again. c

Max so far this winter is Longtown (Herefordshire) with a temperature of 16.5 °C on 6th dec. I don't think this was beaten in January. c

Can't believe I'm top at my first attempt especially after my January guess was 1.4c out. I'll make the most of it as there is only one direction to go now. I'll probably pass Roger on the stairs as he climbs to the top. c

or to put it another way 342nd coldest! http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt (scroll right down) c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2008 If I am reading this right then yesterday came in at 5.5c leaving the provisional monthly average at 6.60c a toasty 2.78c above average. c

I have another question on stratospheric warming(sorry to be persistant!). It appears looking at the evidence that a significant minor stratospheric warming event is just concluding: However it looks like this warming has not filtered down to the troposphere giving us any beneficial cold knock on effect. Is there any way of predicting which warming effects will benefit us for future reference? It appears that the stratosphere is predicted to warm up again Great. But when looking at the long term averages of warming events in the stratosphere at 30hPa it appears that the last warming event even though it outwardly looked great, it hardly got above the long term average for warmth at that layer in the stratosphere! So that leaves the question is the amount of warming achieved, or the amount of temp change in the stratosphere, more important for future cold troposphere effects ? Many thanks in anticipation. c

Hi PG Having watched the models for over 3 years I don't think this is the case. It seems to me me that the models fluctuate between mild and cold and meet somewhere in the middle by T=0Z . The thing is the majority of people on here (myself included) are always on the lookout for the colder scenarios and these are the one we pay more attention too. By the time forecasting comes into a more reliable timeframe the models error is less, and the cold or mild scenarios are less pronounced (not always!). Therefore it seems that cold scenarios are downgraded ( but mild ones are as well, but the majority of us don't notice). Having said that because of other factors such as warmer sea surface temps etc I reckon that lot of model forecasting may be programmed on synoptics of (even recent) yesteryear that may not come into fruition today. c

Whilst awaiting for another update from GP or Brickfielder it appears that the record warming event in the Stratosphere appears to be reversing. The forecast is for a rapid cool down I guess we will have to wait to see if this warmth will filter down to the tropopause and disturb the polar vortex in the troposphere which could then cause cold to flow out of the polar region hopefully in our direction. Looking at the wind anomaly at the top layers in the stratosphere it appears that there has indeed been a strong reversal of the wind direction and strength. I wonder if this could therefore be classified as a major warming event. The AO is still strongly positive but there are signs at the top of the stratosphere that things are changing The AO forecast suggests that a reduction to less positive values is underway, however the full effects of the stratospheric warmings are just out of forecast range. I guess it will be interesting to see how/whether the stratospheric warming will have a knock on effect on us in about two weeks but I for sure will have a keen eye out. c