Kentish Man

Thanks Mr Data. According to the same book hurricane force on the Beaufort Scale is anything above 75mph (Force 12) so I guess this just qualifies. I suppose the sustained thunder and lightning is the most unusual thing for November - presumably the very sudden barometric changes were a factor behind this.

On reading an old edition of the Observer's book of weather (1955) the author refers to one of the most remarkable thunderstorms of the 20th century that "plunged the town into practically complete darkness at Midday, the wind rose to near hurricane force, there was torrential rain with vivid thunder and continual lightning and a strange roaring sound was heard rushing through the village. Wthin two minutes extensive damage was done". Unfortunately there was no exact date given for this extraordinary event. Does anyone have any further information?

"and that little chap with wavy arms whose name escapes me". Dan Corbett

Like others I am sorry to hear of the sad news as I am old enough to remember his time on BBC TV and radio. There were far fewer presenters (and forecasts) back then so I think you seemed to get to know the ones we had rather better than you do with the many we have today. In fairness though there are still a number of excellent presenters on the BBC - Willets, Hammond, Rob Mc and that little chap with wavy arms whose name escapes me. Francis Wilson and Isobel Lang are also good on Sky.

Its not exactly imminent is it? The estimated start date is approximately 10000 years from now. It will be surprising if we as a species are still around by then.

I tend to think you are on a hiding to nothing with a LRF in the UK but they are always interesting to read - thanks. Like you I tend to think colder than the last 2 unseasonably mild affairs but overall maybe more close to average than below temperature wise.

Given the law of averages I'd really be quite surprised if Ian Brown's record warm January 2009 came to pass given the previous two Januarys have been so exceptionally warm. More likely I think is an average winter, which would suggest colder outbreaks may be more frequent and/or longer-lasting than in the last two winters but no reprise of '47, '63, or '79 either.

With Oct at 10.0C provisionally on Hadley an annual CET below 10.00C becomes a little more plausible.

The number of posts I am showing sometimes seems to get stuck. I posted several today and its still showing 636. Its happened on previous days as well! Edit this one takes it to 637 lol

Still raining steadily here - looking at the radar the frontal band seems to have become stuck in the same position over the last hour.

Climate UK (Manley) has reported an August CET of 16.4C which is 0.2C above the 1971/2000 average. Sunshine was a miserable 57% of average at 112 hours. Rainfall was plentiful at 165% of average. A pretty grotty summer month as average CET disguised coolish days but warm nights not a combination most enjoy in a summer month. Hadley's final results should be out around lunchtime.

Climate UK (Manley) still on 16.1C this morning (Aug 1 - 20). The CET figure has remained remarkably static over the last few days reflecting the small diurnal range we've experienced recently.

Yes those sunshine stats from Mr Data make interesting if unsurprising reading. Frankly even in my supposedly favoured neck of the woods this month has been particularly poor in respect of this key statistic. Another stat in the misery index ie number of rainfall days must conversely be quite high As for the CET provisional Hadley has this at 16.1C up to yesterday (18th). Quite average and on its own saying v little about this dire month.

Going by this morning's model data a below average month looks increasingly likely as the arrival of somewhat warmer, more settled conditions seems to have been deferred until after the bank holiday (if they arrive at all). This will be too late to impact significantly on the CET.

Just for the record as of August 14th Manley is on 16.4C which is 0.1C below the rolling average for 1971/2000. Provisional Hadley is 16.3C. Both figures though are slightly above the full month average CET of 16.2C. At this stage August could still go either way depending on whether a warmer more settled spell turns up for the final week or so.

Provisional Hadley continues its slide downwards and now stands at 16.6C up to the 12th. However the most notable thing this month as Mr Data mentions above is the lack of sunshine. This of all the stats is most conducive to the weatherwise feel bad factor.

We have recorded an above average first week in August with Hadley updating at 17.2C today. This is 0.5C above the running average for 1971-2000 and a full degree above the average 1971/2000 CET for the whole of August. It is fair to say the next 7 days will rather cooler and disappointingly unsettled for holidaymakers. Possibly back to average by mid month.

16.9C for me please

Hadops has just updated and the CET now stands on 16.1C (Jul 1 -27). There must be a fair chance the CET will reach the 71 - 00 average of 16.5C. However final quality controls on Hadley may take it back below.

Hadley has updated and stands at 15.7C up to yesterday. I agree with Reef that 17.0C (by coincidence my guess for the month) looks very far away at the moment. In fact the last 2 GFS runs plus the latest ECM suggest a cool NW type will predominate after the current unsettled spell. The question now is will we even reach last year's July CET of 15.1C. As things stand we may well not.

Hadley is 16.0C today (Jul 1 - 6). This is still 0.2C above the 1971-2000 running mean.

Here is the updated list - 14.8C: Snowmaiden 15.0C: Gavin P 15.0C: Summer Blizzard 15.1C: Cloudwatcher 15.2C: davehsug 15.5C: Memories Of 63 15.4C: Stephen Prudence 15.4C: Steve B 15.4C: The Calm before the Storm 15.4C: Jack Wales 15.5C: Fozi999 15.5C: beng 15.6C: Barry 15.6C: Sundog 15.6C: Mr Maunder 15.7C: Chionomaniac 15.7C: Stu London 15.8C: JonnieG 15.8C: Terminal Moraine 15.8C: mk13 15.8C: Spurry 15.9C: Na Damanta Sam 15.9C: Optimus Prime 15.9C: Duncan McAlister 15.9C: ghrud 15.9C: Mountain Shadow 15.9C: DR Hosking 16.0C: Richard dx7 16.0C: Mr Data 16.0C: Megamoonflake 16.0C: Polar Continental (One day late) 16.1C: Norrance 16.1C: Don 16.1C: Thundery Wintry Showers 16.1C: ACBrixton 16.2C: Snowsure 16.2C: Atlantic Flamethrower 16.2C: Lady Pakal 16.3C: Snowyowl19 16.4C: The Pit 16.4C: Kold Weather 16.4C: La Nina 16.4C: Glacier Point 16.5C: Eddie 16.5C: Iron-Bru 16.6C: Osmposm 16.6C: Stargazer 16.6C: Blast from the Past 16.6C: Damianslaw 16.7C: Grab My Grauples 16.7C: Ukmoose 16.7C: Potent Gust 16.8C: Mark Bayley 16.8C: Rain Rain Rain 16.9C: Timmead 17.0C: Anti-Mild 17.0C: Jackone 17.0C: Kentish Man 17.1C: Polar Gael 17.3C: Rollo 17.3C: Reef 17.3C: MarkH (One day late) 17.4C: David Snow 17.5C: Sunlover 17.5C: phil.n.warks 17.6C: Paul B 17.7C: Shuggee 17.8C: James M 18.0C: Mike W 18.0C: Calrissian 18.2C: Scorcher 18.4C: Roger J Smith 18.5C: Jimm Yay 19.8C: Tornado Alley 20.0C: Craig Evans 21.0C: Vince

That final correction is quite surprising really. Manley has finished on 14.2C. which is 0.3C higher and fractionally above the 1971 - 2000 average and this is also after Hadops were recording a much higher running CET than Manley after the first week to ten days (look back on thread!). I suspect the South East will have been above average generally.

Maybe some signs of a warmer second half? 17.0C for me please

The fact that Tunbridge Wells, a few miles down the road, only reached 92.4 deg F that same day makes that Tonbridge figure look a little dubious. Tonbridge would be potentially slightly hotter being on somewhat lower ground and in something of a natural bowl but a difference of 8 deg F scarcely seems credible.