Kentish Man

There may be a bit of a drop before then though. A quick scan of CET stations indicate minima last night of 9/10C and maxima today of only 17/18C. The next few days will be cool overall. To obtain 17C we will need the right orientation of the high later next week and equally as important for it to stay put for several days preferably to the end of the month. That will suit me as I'm holidaying in Cornwall during the last week of this month!

Manley has the CET holding steady at 16.3C today (Aug 1 - 15). Beyond that the next six days should see the CET drop below 16.0C before recovering from mid-week onwards.

15.8C for me please.

And also possibly now a better than evens chance of the July CET being below the June figure of 15.4C . However this is only on the Manley data as Hadley recorded a June CET of 15.1C and this month is unlikely to drop that low.

Manley is still on 15.4C (15.35C to be exact) for the period Jul 1 -26 which is 1.0C below the 1971-2000 average. Although this month will not be expecially cool thanks to average night minima , suppressed daytime maxima (currently 2.3C below), the frequency and quantity of rain and lack of sunshine will make this a thoroughly miserable July for most people.

The fact July will be below average on whatever scale you use (100 yrs , 61-90 71-00) is a given. The question now is how far below will it be. Also will it be the first July since 1970 (I think?) to record a CET lower than June. Manley's June CET was 15.4C so its by no means impossible, although some warmer weather (warm sector) is predicted for next weekend in the models. Both Manley and Hadley today stand on 15.4C (Jul 1 -23).

Manley stands at exactly 15.5C this morning (Jul 1- 20). This is a quite a sharp drop from yesterday's 15.65C and presumably reflects yesterday's depressed maxima under the heavy rain in the CET zone. Average maxima for the month are a full 2.0C below norm. A below average month must now be a certainty especially given the cool unsettled outlook in the models for the next 7 days.

Manley stands at 14.9C and Hadley 15.1C (Jul 1 -11). This may be the low point of the month with the CET likely to increase in the next few days with both warmer days and nights. The models indicate a return to cooler conditions by the middle of next week however.

It is interesting Manley is currently 0.3C below Hadley as that is the exact opposite of June where Hadley finished on 15.1C and Manley on 15.4C. I know it is very early days of the month but nevertheless it does suggest perhaps in westerly setups Manley fares worse than Hadley while in easterly setups such as June the opposite seems to be the case. As regards July, the CET figures have been sliding each day and it is fairly evident if the current synoptics persisted to the end of the month it would be below average. That of course is a big call to make and it may be a warmer, more settled spell before months end will redress the balance. PS Optimus Prime you appear to have two entries this month ie 17.7C and 18.0C

Manley is at 15.45 rounded down to 15.4C. I think last night was fairly mild in the CET zone at around 12/14C and today temps were between 18/20C so conceivably a very slight nudge upwards? Looking at tonight/tomorrow maybe there will be a slight nudge downwards to offset this so 15.4C is looking good perhaps as the final outurn. Hadley is at 15.3C today so the differential between the two is diminishing at last.

The Hadley Cet to 27 June is 15.4C (Manley is still 0.2C higher) . Today could bring the figures down by 0.2C. The last 2 days are problematic - best guess is static but local factors over the relevant sites may come into play and there is even a chance of a small rise with high nightime minima. However at this stage I'd still guess 15.4C for Manley and 15.2C for Hadley as the final outurn for the month.

Met Office Hadley site down to 15.6C today (Jun 1 - 25)

Hadley stands at 15.8c (June 1-22). Manley is still at 16.1C over the same time scale thereby maintaining the anomaly that has persisted all month so far. On that basis Hadley may finish at around 15.1C by month end while Manley holds as high as mid 15's. Edit sorry SM just seen your post <_<

To be fair to GFS our local BBC Kent and Sussex forecaster (Micahael Fish no less) was saying last night today would be wet and so we could expect depressed temps. Instead it is muggy, cloudy but essentially dry so far . A few brighter intervals have pushed the temps up to the levels you have mentioned.

For the period June 1-13 Manley stands at 16.4C , Hadley 16.2C and the NW tracker just 15.9C, which is quite a wide variance given we are almost mid month.

It is a little odd though. Overenight 3/4th minima here were about 11.5C and maxima on the 4th circa 19.5C, giving a mean of about 15.5C. Manley yesterday (5th) had an increase in CET from 16.0C to 16.2C which might suggest a CET average on the 4th of say 16.5 - 17C (I haven't done the exact maths!). Dr Hosking in his post described the situation in Northants which seems similar to my area. Maybe it comes back to my previous post on this thread that the CET zone is slightly west biased stretching as it does from Bristol to London to Manchester (correct me if I'm wrong). Either that or there is some anomaly in the Manley figures that is creating a marked difference from the Hadley and the NW tracker figures that seem more realistic.

The CET zone seems to cover areas well away from the East Coast so that in the current synoptic setup places like East Anglia, Kent and more especially north eastern areas which are recording average or below average temps are not influencing the CET figures which therefore seem a little high. Conversely in westerly situations I am surprised how often the CET remains static despite places in the sheltered east recording higher temps which you think would nudge it up.

My guess is 14.5C

Today I'm sure will take it down to 12.0 or 12.1C and with minima of 0C to 4C in the CET zone tonight I would hazard a guess at 11.9C or 12.0C by Thursday with no change for the final day of the month.

According to Philip Eden's site the CET remains at 12.2C (May 1 -28). In fact there was a 0.1c drop from 12.25C to 12.15C but rounding down yesterday and rounding up today kept the "headline figure" the same.

Statistics obviously mask our perception of the weather. Given that the average daily max for the period May 1 - 20 is almost 2C less than that recorded in April (despite the warm start to May) and sunshine has been less than average with well above average rainfall, it is not surprising people are viewing May as a cool, dull and wet month. It is only night time temps that have kept the CET significantly above the 1971 - 2000 average and it has to be said most people do not notice high night time minima in the same way as they'd notice a relatively cool day.

Yes :lol:

According to Phillip Eden the CET for May now stands at 11.7C (Apr 1-16). While it may go up a bit over the next couple of days, overall there will not be much change to the 23rd. After that where it goes depends on whether you believe the current GFS or ECMWF version of events. To reach 13.8C would need an extraordinary final week heatwave.

In the meantime yesterdays chill has reduced the CET to 11.8C per Phillip Eden (Apr 1-15).

Philip Eden today shows the May CET easing back a tad to 12.0C (May 1-10).