Kentish Man
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Manley now riding absurdly high at 9.2C (Dec 1 - 6). Not quite sure how today will pan out - early evening temps last night were around 14C but most areas are now around 8C. So we have a very mild night followed by a cool day.
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6.6C I'll add a mid - month prediction later if you decide to go ahead with (3). Changes (1) and (2) are good. Having read GP's post following I think he has a valid point there so on balance I'll vote no for (3)
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MetOffice updated Winter Forecast
Kentish Man replied to suffolkboy_'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Doesn't really say much. As last winter was so mild it really doesn't take a genius to predict this year will be less so. -
Its going to be close. Parts of the CET area were up to 16.5C today and away from the SE (Benson for example dropped to around 3C) many, though not all, stations never dropped below 9C even earlier in the night. I am not sure where the Manley measurements are taken so local factors will be important. 11.1C still possible though 11.0C more likely.
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Hadley has just updated to the 30th - now stands at 11.1C
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A good guess I would say for the final outturn. As to why this thread generates 40 pages I have no idea. Bear in mind there is probably another 4 or 5 to come with debate today and tomorrow and then the post-match analysis.
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While it was a chilly 3C or so here in rural Kent (well away from the onshore WNW breeze) it was rather less cold in the CET area last night, minima seemed to have largely been between 6C and 8C so given average maxima today I doubt there will be much of a fall today - at best to 11.0C. So it all hinges on tonight and tomorrow.
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And Manley has fallen to 12.3C.
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Hadley has also updated (having not done so yesterday) and now stands at 12.9C. Undoubtedly the CET will take a hit in the next few days but there is a lot of uncertainty thereafter.
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Hadley shows another slight rise today taking the CET to 12.8C (Oct 1 -14) which is 1.1C above the rolling mean.
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Todays Hadley update shows October CET currently standing at a fairly balmy 12.7C which is 0.9C above the rolling mean.
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This thread seems to become more popular when the weather is uneventful and quiet as it has been so far this autumn. Anyway Hadley stands at 12.3C today (Oct 1-11)
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Hadley today has the CET at 12.4C (Oct 1 - 10) so we are standing a little above average for this stage of the month now. Edit Sorry SF I see you beat me to it.
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This is very interesting GW - why is it we have little media interest in these developments unlike the near-saturation coverage we had a few years ago?
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No Manley update today but Hadley now stands at 12.1C (Oct 1 - 7)
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Two days in, Hadley has the CET at 12.0C
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It has been rounded up to 13.9C.
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Sorry missed the deadline by a few minutes - I wait your judgement as to whether I face a deduction! My punt is for a pleasant warm October with a rare visitation for this year of TC air. Colder final third of the month. 11.7C
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In fact the Beeb are going for around 16C in the CET zone today and 13C tomorrow. GFS are sticking with maxima of 11C tomorrow - surely a tad low. I don't see below average (13.7C) myself especially as maxima are forecast to be a bit higher over the final two days of the month though minima may or may not stay relatively low. As others have said around 14C still looks good.
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Oi I know you may have morphed from arch global warmist to cold lover supreme but some of us like to remain impartial on these matters. What I said was entirely reasonable. However the chances of a cold incursion next Monday and a below average final 6 days have increased with a universally cool set of model runs this morning so a final outurn nearer 14C does look more likely as things stand. A below average month (71-00) may be pushing it though.
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Yes but I don't see too much cold thereafter in the reliable timeframe with warmer 850's arriving by this time tomorrow and TM air scheduled to return later in the week. Frankly without significant northerly incursions in the post t+144 hours FI period, which admittedly the ECM hints at in this evenings model run, this month will finish above the 1971 -2000 average by possibly as much as 1 deg C.
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The updated Manley CET is 15.5C (Sep 1- 6)
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Well personally I'm quite happy to have some prolonged warm dry weather after a poor summer by any standards. To me the climate has simply reverted back to normal variability after a freakish warm period culminating in this year's extraordinary April. Others have already demonstrated there is no connection between a warm September or October and the following winter. In any case it is far too early to identify this as a warm month - a chilly final 10 days could hammer the CET quite dramatically.
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Maybe a September as warm as July, 15.3C for me.
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A below average August is certainly not a done deal yet. The CET area will be above average in the next few days due to warm nights at first then warmer days by the weekend. After that it depends which model you believe. GFS backed by GEM and probably UKMO (although it doesn't go out that far) go for HP to the west and cooler air but ECM goes for a warm SE draw with HP migrating NEwards.