Kentish Man

We had winds gusting up to 45mph in my part of Kent today. I think any residual aircraft heat etc would dissipate pretty quickly if the winds were anything like that strong in the RAF bases you mention!

Surprisingly strong gusty wind right now. Anything downstream?

Put me down for 12.2C please

Surprisingly Manley still on 11.1C (Apr 1 -29) so 11.2C looks like final outcome at best

Probably nuclear obliteration or some such. Anyway Philip Eden's April CET still 10.9C (1st - 26th)

What is the all-time record April CET? At the very least the 1987 record of 10.3C is under serious threat.

Can't see much downward correction if GFS is to be believed. A few cooler nights from next Thursday to Sunday but daytime temps only falling to average followed by a warm up again after next weekend to the end of the month. 10C or above still very much on.

I suppose my guess of 7.8C would be one of them although it is in fact only slightly below the long term average. It is borne of experience from some of the winters of 20/30 years ago or so when mild winters tended to be followed by cold to average springs. This month is weird, a summer pattern established amazingly early. Coming on the back of so much sustained warmth you have to feel a bit concerned about it all - it just doesn't seem natural to me. A near record breaking month must be on the cards.

Put me down for 7.8C

The Manley CET is up to 7.0C today. For the next few days cooler days will be offset by milder nights but there won't be a dramatic rise - 7.2C final outturn?

According to Philip Eden todays CET is down to 6.9C. It looks like it might end up at around this level or maybe a little higher by the end of the month with nothing particularly warm or cold forecast in the next 9 days. So that puts paid to my optimistic prediction (for cold)!

It is tempting to hang on until the last day of February before making a punt on March but on looking at the Feb CET thread most of those nearest to the expected outurn of about 6.1C didn't leave it until the last day so I guess it doesn't make a lot of difference. My feeling is that early to mid March will be slightly above the 1971-2000 norm with the odd colder day partly offsetting TM incursions within the transient warm sectors. The theme generally though looks to be unsettled weather with LP's tracking quite close to the UK. With a lot of cloud about offsetting the increasing solar energy and cooler seas in March I don't think daytime temps are going to be particularly high and with clearing skies and possibly overall a slightly cooler PM source to the air some of the nights may be chillier than we saw earlier in the winter period. For the latter part of the month I am going for rather colder weather with blocking to the north becoming a feature as we head towards April. Consequently I am banking on this to be the coldest month of the Nov - Apr period and slightly colder than February. My guestimate 5.6C

Temps currently 1.8C. Decent snow cover here in fact more than I expected but light rain now falling so maybe thats it for this area. Have to say the forecasts have been pretty spot on. Good to see younger peeps having fun but us older lags have to say the event is not comparable to the severe cold events of the 70's 80's and 91 or even 96. Then you'd have frozen snow covered ice impacted pavements rather than the slush of today.

Hi it'd be useful if you say which town/village you are from in Kent. If you are on the eastern coast the easterly wind off the Dover Straits may be keeping your temps slightly higher than further inland. Currently 1.0C here.

Yes on the face of it there is nothing too promising for southern half of the UK after the next couple of days. However it is worth looking at the control run on the GEFS ensembles. This are now shown on NW free section. It is a bit of an outlier after t+240 but it reverts to the cold blocking scenario favoured by some for the latter part of the month. Yes I know its highly FI but its always a bit of fun spotting any developing trends however unlikely.

Click on John's profile and then on his blog button

There is quite a difference between the latest 12Z Fax for Thursday and GFS 06z for the same time. The fax chart shows the weakish HP to the N and east with a depression over the UK. Could be some potential from the MetO chart. If the MetO is right (and thats not certain) then maybe the JMA should get some plaudits for being the first model to pick up the general synoptics for this date as regards the weak high although the detail is of course a bit different as regards the positioning of the LP over the UK.

My inkling is for an another mildish month but less mild than Dec or Jan with HP more in evidence around our shores and a few cold snaps. My prediction 4.8C (cf 1971-2000 Ave 4.2C)

What I think sometimes happens is that cold Marches occasionally follow mild winters. March 1975 was quite memorable in my area and was colder than the preceding 3 winter months. Consequently any wintry weather in these cold Marches is all the more noticeable. I think a good point was made earlier when it was said there is no specific reason why the seasons should be of equal length. However as we in the UK tend to have weather rather than climate (as the old saying goes) there seems little point in changing the current met office definitions. The strength of the sun also has to be a factor - you can sit out in a pub garden on a warm day in mid-March and it certainly doesn't feel like winter. A warm day in mid- September doesnt have the burning tropical feel of a similar day in July.

This is a report about the tornado on aol. Tornado_tears_through_London_street___AOL_News.htm

In very old textbooks there was a distinction made between Polar Continental, air largely drawn from central Europe and Southern Russia typically giving daytime maxima of around 3C in the winter months and night minima just above freezing because of the cloudiness of the airstream and Artic Continental, air drawn from Scandinavia and Artic Russia which in midwinter was cited as the only airstream that will produce freezing days with sunshine and snow showers in central England. Is this a distinction still made?

After the front cleared through around 10am this morning we had a largely sunny day. Watching my daughter play a football match an hour or so later it felt anything but mild despite brilliant sunshine with a strong wind cutting through several layers of clothing. This afternoon there was a slight shower from a largely cloudless sky and I watched some huge cumulonimbus in the distance over South East Sussex following their usual track in these situations along the English Channel towards the Dover Straits.

McElwee - brilliant for us weather nerds Willetts - sparky gorgeous and wonderful in every way Francis Wilson - the best outside the bbc On radio I remember a guy called Bob Pritchard at the london weather centre. he was also very good

On a quick drive round snow lying on Bluebell and Detling Hills in the Kentish North Downs I would estimate above about 100m approx on checking the OS maps. On lower ground wet snow most of morning now mixture of rain and sleet at lowest levels and wet snow (not lying) above 60m approx. Its that marginal. Current temp at my lowly location (35m asl) 2.4C

Heavy rain with a few flakes of snow arrived in last 10 mins