Harsh Climate

I think with what's on offer, this would be a poor result 70/30 we get a more favourable solution in my opinion

I think it will get there but just going to take a bit longer. Would like it there quicker, less chance for something to go wrong!

Wonder how this low is going to affect the rest of the run Need WAA to go up the left side of Greenland, important 168h coming up.

As good as some of the models are this afternoon, caution is still needed. If it is to go pete tonge this in my opinion is how it will go wrong: Seen it time and and time again, when we are led down the garden path nearing -15 850hpa north easterlies at 120h, only to wake up the next morning to a chart like that lol. This type of scenario is certainly a possibility as deep cold this far out is never a certainty, so a level head would be advised at this stage and not be blinkered by the eye candy out in FI! But as things stand I think things are 70/30 in our favour, some good upgrades this afternoon so fingers crossed.

9 really is the pic of the bunch

Think the mean for at least northern England northwards should be lower than -5 850hpa from the 9TH JAN which is where we need to be! And a few perps between -10/15 Not like the rubbish 6z essembles. Heading in the right direction!

9 isn't bad neither

perp 1 is pretty nice

Yes the ensembles you posted are terrible, without doubt. Thankfully though they are from only one run and I expect them to improve. From the 4th January Aberdeen averages -2 - -4 uppers, with only a few perturbations down to -8 uppers late on. The Netherlands chart you posted shows uppers averaging 0 with only a couple pertubations going below -5 late on, that is even more shocking considering we are expecting a big pattern change with some deep cold about to be injected into parts of Europe maybe reaching as far as us.. Those ensembles have to improve some point if Europe/possibly us is to go in the freezer sometime in January. Over the last 2 days the trend has been less cold on the essembles but like I say I expect that to improve, Check again in a couple days and you will hopefully see what a good set of essembles is!

I still believe we are on for a good cold spell later in January, but those essembles are terrible! Look a the ones I posted a couple days ago, this is what we need to be seeing:

Some very nice runs out at 192h 6 is one of my favourites

You are kidding right? Ukmo is very good Ecm looking good so far. You can't just make a complete U-turn over one bad gfs run/ essembles.. And GEM adds no weight to any argument. Like I said yesterday we will never have the big 3 (gfs, ukmo, ecm) all on board, singing from same hymn sheet until near the time.. The models will have wobbles and show different solutions from now until next week until a clear cut path is decided. Imo it's very much still on coarse, enjoy the roller coaster mate, we have a week of this before it really begins.

For the South East and Holland, not for the northern half of the UK

Hardly mate, have a look through not a single day close to the cold I highlighted on that chart! Reanalysis archives WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

GFS Ensembles out to 252h and they are all looking very good, may be the best set yet for this upcoming cold period.

Check out the cold wedge that develops to our north and east from start to finish on GFS 12Z, something is brewing!

Check out this post from Duane earlier, applies to you

Good UKMO imo Look how far south the jet is now, cold polar air mass shifting further and further south

Should start tapping into that colder air over Scandi

GFS 12z looks better than 6z to me at first glance, seems less energy out in the Atlantic.

Yeah. I think their just playing it safe, there not going to predict severe cold at this stage because the tabloids will be all over it and it will be their heads on the chopping block should it not happen!

Latest met office long range forecast,make of it what you will: ''Thursday 11 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic. Currently, the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 27 Dec 2023'' For me that is very good, even though they highlight the risk of severe cold is low, it is always going to be that at this range.

I'ts good that we have the Micky Mouse models on board to start the proceedings, even they have their place! When they are showing good, I just expect a more watered down version in reality.

Before the 12zs roll out, Just to demonstrate that you don't need howling easterlies and -15 uppers to bring heavy snow, I've just been looking through the archives and you would not believe this brought over 45cm to Leeds. '' The January 1995 United Kingdom Blizzard was a period of extremely heavy snowfall that affected Northern England from 25 to 26 January 1995.[5] The snow hit the major cities during the rush hour, earlier than expected, and brought chaos to the cities of Sheffield and Leeds , leaving thousands stranded overnight.[4] The city of Leeds received over 45 cm (18 in) in just the first 3 hours of the storm.'' Wouldn't be surprised if one of these type of scenarios start popping up in the output, giving some low lying areas a heavy fall of snow next week. (Albeit not as insane as that one lol.)

I can smell some good 12z runs later