Harsh Climate

Spot on there mate! Heard a fair few say ''O, this cold spell isn't going to materialize because so many times in the past we have been let down''.... You guarantee if we miss out on the cold/snow in January they will try and claim credit from it lol. Like I said in my other post, the deep cold is coming to a large part of Europe, without question. The problem is there's always the chance that our small island ''the UK' just misses out, has happened before and could happen again. I mean like what happened in 2003 I think, we was forecast the perfect NE flow with uppers between -15 and -20 only for the models to change last second with the Severe cold clobbering the low Countries, whilst we caught a wedge of high pressure..

Didn't stop 1947 from happening...

Just look at the gfs essembles, In my opinion, they highlight perfectly where Most of Europe is headed! There's no getting away from the fact most of Europe and Russia is about to head into the freezer during January. Averaging -5 850s West Yorkshire in time, Oslo, Moscow off the charts cold and a noticeable dip too even for Madrid and Rome. Only one piece of the Jigsaw but you can clearly see the trend to cold is overwhelming. Just how long will it take to reach the UK that is the question..

My mistake ye lovely chart

Check ECM 240h wow

I'ts on the milder end of the spectrum without a doubt, I think the whole set is a mild outlier . Past 4th January a fair few seem to be heading in the right direction though.

esembles looking poor out to 216h, only one run so no need to panic

I think it will do it but well into FI, unfortunately. Still positive signals we are seeing.

Gfs 6z seems to take away chance of snow over midlands/ central southern England at least earlier on this run but should still be good later on for long term cold/snow

GFS 6z trickling out, hopefully, this developing low can dig a bit further south than on the GFS00z run, will get us off to a good start

Great charts this morning with the prospect of cold/snow being brought forward. Looks like the Midlands/central southern England threads could be busiest at first with lows tracking further and further south bringing snow on the northern side. Do we get greedy and hope these lows track 2/300 miles further north?? Or play the long game. For me I think get some good snow first then see what happens after

I think it's safe to say an excellent start to proceedings from the 3 key models this morning, I know ECM and UKMO aren't stellar like the GFS in FI but just looking at 144h they are all good and seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet! Only a day ago the potential was from 240h I have noticed a significant jump to 144h where we start to see real promise, so huge upgrades this morning IMO. All 3 show some kind of Block/Col developing in the Atlantic

Yes and the weather can be cruel, it's usually the same area that gets hit over and over again.. While some places miss out altogether. If the turn of events to cold/blocked weather evolves from a set-up like the gfs 6z is showing I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 lows dug in bringing snow on it's nothern side! The classic way would for each low to dig further and further south and east into the euro high.

I think somewhere is going to get clobbered from one of these lows over the next week or so. I would prefer that on the ECM 2-300 miles further north but may be better for long term cold if the low(s) track further south.

The bitter experience from model watching for me was next to zero snow from around 1997 all the way until 2009, That's 12 years with no more than a fleeting dusting or rain preceeded by couple hours snow. Since 2010 have had many good snowfalls below 100m. It is now very rare to have big model failures now when all big 3 are on board in a shortish time frame of 120h<.. I think models have been upgraded and improved over the last 2 decades. The only thing I can think of is you have missed out locally?? I have noticed the South East in general not getting a lot of snow in recent years while I've had loads Have the faith mate, your time will come. And excellent post from Lorenzo BTW.

It's the models trying to get to grip with the big pattern change about to happen, happens all the time! Cold, blocked and real prospect for snow as we head through January! I've been saying this for days as have a fair few other experienced members on here, you would have to be blind not to see this. People beating on the 'won't happen' or 'mild' drum simply because one of the key 3 models output is poor say the 00z ECM earlier, whilst the other 2 are good... Your are unlikely to get all free (GFS, ECM, UKMO) singing off the same hym sheet until around 144h even then can be too far out. Can deny it all you like but the cold is coming mark my words

The upcoming SSW now coming into the reliable time frame for such an event. Showing here some serious warming, should see a full PV split by the end of the run.

Something tells me from the latest output it should start getting very busy in here in the near future, hopefully some great weather stories to come!

OK mate

Check out perturbation 16 of gfs 6z ensembles. Uppers as low as -14 850s for central UK. We can dream.

I think he was pointing out my mistake, I knew there would be at least one to point it out as I put it on a silver platter for anyone willing . Still though Like I said, upto 240h wasn't a bad run, only after in FI did it become poor, Im sure there will be suites in the ensembles at that stage which become very good, we will see.

I still dont think that 240h chart I posted is bad at all, IMO could easily have gone to deep cold. Looked like most of the zonality on our side of the northern hemisphere was dying down and about to become very blocked. It was ultimately ruined by that low in the Azores not digging far enough into Europe before pushing north and spoiling any Height rises.

Didnt quite go as I had thought it would.. We end up here, I would hardly call it terrible though

Theres only one way this run goes from here! Good that its now within the 240h range,

I think this gfs 6z will turn out really good, look at the high pressure over Siberia being sucked up towards the north pole, even yellows/oranges beginning to show up