Harsh Climate

I tell you what there may be a curve ball in the equation, look how far south that streamer over North west england has moved???? Would do some serious damage to western parts of north/west yorkshire if that could make it later!

Yeah I'm thinking all ya have to worry about away from immediate coastline, is having enough precipitation.. Should be all snow even down to about 25m.. light now with few flakes falling, nice sugar dusting over all ground now, albeit patchy inplaces

Ya probably right actually , just looked up the exact definition of graupel and it's more likely to be that than anything else. Definitely not freezing rain.

Don't think it's graupel it is hard and not soft

Light/moderate icy hail falling here, sounds like rain on impact but completely frozen.

Think eastern suburbs of leeds could do quite well and get a good 2/3cm tonight

Looks like the system is going to reinvigorate over more eastern parts of our region, but like many say will be down to nowcasting and could be the odd surprise in the mix

I would guess sleet with some wet snow in the heavier bursts.

Seeing it already snowing in the north west england should definitely be all snow for us away from east coast, looking good

This looks like the main firing line, although due do pulse nature of precip coming in this evening/tonight could change a bit.

From briefly looking at models a fair few show, the heavier stuff mostly affecting south yorkshire, east yorkshire and eastern parts of north yorkshire. Preicipitation may be a little less intense west of leeds but for you ya should be well on the right side of marginal. For me I'm hoping 50m+ is sufficient

Just another school kid guestimating what will happen.

Great charts!! Can't ask for much more than good blocking, being the right side of the -5 dam line with systems trying to attack from the atlantic into this cold air mass. With such short days with little sunshine, things will get cold very quick and any snow will find it easier to stick and last with no diurnal heating. Even if this cold spell produces little snow if we can get the north sea/ irish sea SST's down and cool soil temps down this could have very positive effects mid/late winter especially as El Nino winter kicks in.

He no Reed Timmer but fair enough

Do you know Ian Brown, Did he put you through your weather training?

Id head to dover, get a nice view of all the storms in the channel as they just miss Kent later.

No, just run of the mill cloud

Funny how storms die when they cross the channel, but when they leave the east coast and hit the north sea they explode into life!

Not enough CAPE or High temperatures to produce any substantial homegrown storms today. Would Have been ideal this clearance a week ago when we had these ingredients..

Only 8 times this year?? Thatis quite considerable amount considering we might only have say 8-13 thundery outbreaks a year

A lot of the time we do . Silly comment that EE. Also not sure why you have plucked 1000J/KG+ out, today for most of midlands/sentral southern england there is generally at most 200/300 available which is pittance if your hoping for a severe storm or even a half decent one. Like I said pop fart torrential downpours and the odd weak storm once this mess to the south clears north.

Will be a day of pop fart downpours and weak thunderstorms, blink and you miss them. Sporadic sferics all over the place, just not enough CAPE to get excited.

I think anyone expecting storms with very frequent lightening (even night time) like a week ago will be very dissapointed. I expect a few scattered storms into the midlands perhaps south east later today, very locally might get a decent little display. But as they travel further north this evening/overnight I expect lightening to diminish with more in the way of just downpours being quite widespread.

As usual storm/snow capital of Yorkshire (Sheffield) inline for another cracking storm.

We need more than the 1 sferic though Aiden lol. On radar though rainfall intensity is there has great potential