Harsh Climate

Yeah, just checked ensembles their really heading in the right direction. Be nice to see a few more below -10 850s but with the right flow -5 850s can be enough.

Excellent, it's not often you see the NAO going negative, another step in the right direction for coldies

There we have it SSW causing PV to fully split, looking nailed on now for good blocking and colder weather in January

First of all a couple of minor points of correction to make here. First I wasn't referring to 'lukes' post, I don't even know who Luke is lol. I was merely giving a brief summary of my current thoughts on recent output, before I went to work. Second, I know what an Outlier is, it's as you say ''it’s an operational which lies partly or in whole outside of the other members entirely.'' Which is what I was pointing out, the chart I showed had the gfs operational run in question clearly outside the other members even under the 48 hour range and partly out for most of the rest of the run one way or another. So if your going to make a point trying to explain to someone what an outlier is from their posted chart, at least use the same information, like for like. Your last point ''For as long as that is there and there’s no consistent northerly blocking there really isn’t a clear path to prolonged UK cold. The best we can aspire to with this kind of set up are northerly incursions'' I strongly disagree with that. We have an upcoming SSW event looking likely and lots of models are throwing out lots of eye candy late on, with lots of promise even in the mid-range. Forget all the technical Jargon, just from past experience alone it isn't hard to see the tide is turning from mild and windy to something more cold and dry in the near future.. With good blocking and chance of snow just around the corner in January. And thats just from glancing at the output a few times a day.. Another point I disagree with is ''which as you say may bring some snow surprises especially to the northern high ground'' I tell you now there will be some low ground snow more especially over Scotland/ parts of northern England over the next 10 days, from time to time we are the right side of the -5 850hpa line, as systems push in from the west/north west could easily give coverings of snow down to quite low levels.. And lastly you say ''There’s also sadly no firm evidence for a big pattern change as yet. We can but hope'' If you can't take a near certain SSW event (Iv'e attached proof of this below) as evidence of a big pattern change, you will never see an impending pattern change until it's reached your back garden! If you want further information on what a SSW is or how it works drop me a message mate

Just as I thought, close to being a mild outlier. For me the models are collectively looking very nice now, I see nothing other than blocked and cold/snowy weather the further we go into January. Just patience is needed now as the models get to grips with this big upcoming pattern change. I expect to start seeing some stellar runs over the coming days. Maybe the odd snow surprise for more northern parts of the UK over the coming 7-10 days to wet the appetite,but main course coming mid January onwards and should be difficult to shift..

Well at first glance this morning's output a lot better than yesterday morning's! Nothing to right home about but at least the famous word on here 'potential' is back on the table!

Checked Gfs and ukmo this morning, wish I hadn't! . What people thought was bad output yesterday, x3 this morning..

I think for the western isles of Scotland and any high-sided vehicles headed north maybe over the Pennines, they want to stay tuned.. Anywhere else any damage should be quite sporadic, Blanket yellow warning certainly warranted like ya say.

Just be a typical windy day in Yorkshire..

Look at this though, hypothetically would only take a few subtle touches for this slider to bring widespread snow to some areas. I've seen it many times locally over the last 10 years.

Fair does mate, I get where you are coming from. Iwould like a chilly Christmas morning but would be willing to sacrifice for greater cold say in a few days to a weeks time..

I disagree mate, most models had it milder after Christmas with no substantial block, this Gfs run may be better for after Christmas

The key question is was it ever there to begin with? We never had a cross-model agreement of anything substantial within a reliable timeframe. All I saw from colluding with the big 3 (gfs,ecm and ukmo) at best was a brief northwesterly, bringing frost in places Christmas morning before eventually turning milder boxing day with rain for many..

Showers turning more wintry christmas day, yeah that's really bad!

Not the worst chart I ever saw, rather than cold at Christmas before turning mild, could be the other way around mild at Christmas but colder after! This run may be better for the future

Maybe squeeze out a frost in places

Because you need cross-model agreement from the big 3, GFS, ECM and UKMO before being quite confident of what will happen.

I think our future northerly/cold snap depends on whether or not this little feature blows up or not. Only 3/4 days away from it spawning so should soon find out.

Depends on your location. Here close to leeds had next to nothing from 1997 all the way through until 2009, then in 2010 it all changed. Since then have had falls of at least 3" every other year including about six or seven 6-10" falls! At asl of only 200/300 feet two... So for me winters have improved drastically over last 13 years!

Do you think we could see some wacky charts thrown out over christmas day due to lack of data/ staffing. Or is that just a myth?

ICON and JMA along with GEM joke models, been proven thismorning

Still not the worst set of essembles you will ever see. Especially for London which was always going to struggle to see the cold air.

Very poor 00z output to wake up to. Not conclusive but time to worry if you are after a white Christmas or noteworthy cold snap/spell. For Scotland 6/10, Northern England 4/10, Midlands 3/10 far south 1/10... They are my model ratings this morning with 10/10 been severe cold and widespread snow..

Saw you posting and had to check I wasn't in Yorkshire thread, never seen ya post in here Good Ecm in the end, I prefer the slow burner to the blink and you miss it northerly!

I think the ECM shows the best outcome currently at 240h if we are looking for longevity of cold and perhaps(something better/more severe. These deep lows/flows nearly always lead to disappointment down the line, maybe too much energy spinning around.