Harsh Climate

Yeah like you say something could still set-up and big but for me that's too focus on one area and I wouldn't count my chickens on me winning that jackpot lol

Yes I'd assume so, maybe they are from earlier though and not the most recent 12z data. Don't want to worry anyone regarding tue-wed being dry or frequent snow showers but I will be viewing tomorrow mornings runs from behind my chair. This could go a bit wrong but if all data reverts back to what was shown this morning we should be home and dry (except locally lol )

That would be nice but I don't any automated forecast

Yeah I reckon so. I think at very worst we at least get a snowy breakdown. You seen UKMO, I'm a tad dissapointed that it shows more of a SEE to SE feed tuesday, this could cut the duration of heavy frequent snow showers to yorkshire/linconshire.. And you guessed it clobbering north east england/south east scotland instead... Hope this isn't a trend. The E to NEE showed yesterday and this morning looked perfect. Yes GFS precip charts are perfect but they haven't taken into account watch such a wind shift towards the SE would do.

I think the models are underestimating strength of block and cold pool to east, going with default and having atlantic steamroll through.. I think it will be a slower affair and take until the weekend for it to remain dominance, if it actually does..

Yeah looks good, I'm very happy with it's 168 hour chart. There's not a chance that would lead to what it shows at 192 hours though with the atlantic steamrolling through like a dose of salts!

I'd go completely on charts and what people on here say. Ignore the bbc. Yes it's nice when they showing snow graphics over ya house, but they are so bad and inaccurate it's laughable. Charts show lot's of showers sunday!

GFS is a huge upgrade for shower activity sunday. Shows most of yorkshire getting pummeled by snow showers! Also interesting, I'm surprised no ones mentioned it yet, first signs of orographic lift showing on charts. Look at this bad boy: Look at how the precipitation towards the east coast is a lot lighter, but eastern side of pennines heavy precipitation. clouds building as cold air picks up moisture from the rather mild north sea. Sent upwards as it hit's the pennines, quickly cools and falls back down as snow to us lucky lot on the eastern side. An actual Adiabatic cooling event.

Am I right in thinking otley is near the nose lol. Often in these situations I'm looking towards york for our next shower.

Yeah ya probably right. The map was drawn up quite quick tbh due to a moaning girlfriend. Il bare that in mind next time, nothing beats local knowledge

Don't take it at face value, those automated graphics and forecasts change by the day and are often completely wrong, I don't pay any attention to them at all.

Is this a wind up post?

One of the worst days of my life

Probably should have had far north east scotland in orange zone but getting used to this new technology

My current thought's on how much snow could fall over the next few days in scotland. Don't shoot me if ya think I've gone too express lol but I really think these totals are possible. From my weather page: RED WARNING: 4/2/21 18z - 6/2/21 12z. (Red Area) Central/Eastern Scotland - *Imminent danger to life *Blocked Roads *Cuts to electricity/essential services 10-20cm all levels 20-40cm 200m+ 50-75cm 300m+ Could be some historical amounts of snow, only travel if absolutely essential, have winter supply's stocked in car if doing so. (Orange area) Other parts of Central/Eastern scotland. Southern scotland. 2-5cm Coastal fringes 5-15cm All levels 10-18cm 200m+ 15-30cm 300m+ Stay tuned, more updates and local analysis as this major event unfolds.

Again from my weather page - Yes I've gone big haha RED WARNING: 4/2/21 18z - 6/2/21 12z. (Red Area) Central/Eastern Scotland - *Imminent danger to life *Blocked Roads *Cuts to electricity/essential services 10-20cm all levels 20-40cm 200m+ 50-75cm 300m+ Could be some historical amounts of snow, only travel if absolutely essential, have winter supply's stocked in car if doing so. (Orange area) Other parts of Central/Eastern scotland. Southern scotland. 2-5cm Coastal fringes 5-15cm All levels 10-18cm 200m+ 15-30cm 300m+ Stay tuned, more updates and local analysis as this major event unfolds.

Here's my current take on snow totals *Whole eastern side of England 2 Areas of interest: *Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards! *Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to pinpoint. These warnings will be updated as events unfold and will most likely be upgraded to amber or even a red in the odd localised spot. SNOW TOTALS: Yellow area - widespread totals of 10-20cm. ~Must be noted though where streamers and convergence zones develop we may be measuring in inches and not cm, I would not be suprised with totals around 30cm in a few places and higher ground as much as 45cm, early indications would have North yorkshire moors and Tan hill as the epicentres. As ever showers can be hit and miss, some areas will do well, whilst 5 miles down the road there is considerably less snow. Although 10-20cm widespread a few unlucky or lucky (however you see it) locations may ony have 2-5 cm) I'm confident though everywhere should see a decent covering. And an extra side note - Early indications and fax charts show a convergence zone setting up shop north yorkshire monday afternoon. This area of intense shower activity could be a little further north or south, stay tuned for finer details. The beast is awakening! Orange Zone - 2-15cm An area of snow will spread out of france into south eastern england sunday and join up with the fragmenting band from the north, what we will see is a large (expanding north) band of snow spreading to the areas stated. Some places will see a good 12-24 hours of continuous snowfall, mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst but accumulations should steadily build up. Into kent and coastal fringes the temperature may be a little marginal, which could negate settling snow totals. This is still very much open to question, further data needed to be sure. I would have places like inland parts of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire as current hotspots for highest totals. There may be an isolated 18-20cm here. After this band clears away and fragments sunday into monday showers and streamers should follow. At the moment there is no definitive indication of where these will be and how potent so more updates needed.

First predictions for this upcoming cold spell taken from my weather page. Early weather watch 06/2/2021 21z - 10/2/2021. *Whole eastern side of England 2 Areas of interest: *Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards! *Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to pinpoint. These warnings will be updated as events unfold and will most likely be upgraded to amber or even a red in the odd localised spot. SNOW TOTALS: Yellow area - widespread totals of 10-20cm. ~Must be noted though where streamers and convergence zones develop we may be measuring in inches and not cm, I would not be suprised with totals around 30cm in a few places and higher ground as much as 45cm, early indications would have North yorkshire moors and Tan hill as the epicentres. As ever showers can be hit and miss, some areas will do well, whilst 5 miles down the road there is considerably less snow. Although 10-20cm widespread a few unlucky or lucky (however you see it) locations may ony have 2-5 cm) I'm confident though everywhere should see a decent covering. And an extra side note - Early indications and fax charts show a convergence zone setting up shop north yorkshire monday afternoon. This area of intense shower activity could be a little further north or south, stay tuned for finer details. The beast is awakening! Orange Zone - 2-15cm An area of snow will spread out of france into south eastern england sunday and join up with the fragmenting band from the north, what we will see is a large (expanding north) band of snow spreading to the areas stated. Some places will see a good 12-24 hours of continuous snowfall, mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst but accumulations should steadily build up. Into kent and coastal fringes the temperature may be a little marginal, which could negate settling snow totals. This is still very much open to question, further data needed to be sure. I would have places like inland parts of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire as current hotspots for highest totals. There may be an isolated 18-20cm here. After this band clears away and fragments sunday into monday showers and streamers should follow. At the moment there is no definitive indication of where these will be and how potent so more updates needed.

ECM 120h, steady as she goes

Look at that area just south of hull though, If that chart was to come to fruition there's no way south yorkshire wouldn't get loads of shower activity two.

In my opinion the area of snow to the south east stretching into south yorkshire and lincolnshire sunday, should edge further north late in the day but becoming more showery, by monday I think this will be the real catalyst for intense snow showers/streamers over north/west (perhaps all yorkshire.) By then it will be no longer an organised band of snow, but a defined area of shower activity.

Your gunna get all the snow sunday while us further north probably miss out . On the flip side it does look like north/west yorkshire is best place for snow showers next week. But a lot of water to go under the bridge yet..

I've noticed that we have some members on here from lincoln and york who haven't seen much snow yet this winter. Around york looks best placed at the moment (low lying area) to get pummeled from the snow showers monday - wednesday. And lincoln looks best placed for the stuff coming up from the south east sunday. You guys especially want no changes in model output from now until the weekend lol.

Latest GFS is an absolute bulls eye for snow shower activity and streamers after the weekend, For north/west yorkshire. All we need now is no big changes, wind alignment absolutely perfect.

Yeah high ground in the south west could see a lot of snow when the atlantic tries to push the colder air out the way.