Harsh Climate

I think the guy suggesting it could be a historical event, was just probably a little over excited as I saw on the radar he got caught under that torrential blob just as the rain/sleet transitioned to snow .. Yeah some places getting heavy snow now in north west england might get a nice covering. And for a few lucky places in our region, will be likewise. Just depends on who gets the heavy/long lasting echoes when all conditions are favourable. The window for this is probably between 11pm-4am, not a big window but if you land jackpot with some torrential bursts in that time accumulations could rapidly grow. Guess that's where the interest really comes from tonight.

They are on the right side of colder air to the west and milder air to the east though and rapidly falling due points. A good sign though is their dew points are currently a couple degrees colder in places than forecast for around 9pm, so could bode well for us I suppose.

I think the key is how long the precipitation sticks around once conditions become favourable. I'd expect due points to go below 1c from about 11-12pm tonight, initially in west and south yorkshire, then to most parts later.

Temperature dropping like a stone here, temperature now 4.7c, be supprised if there's no snow come tomorrow morning.

Latest gfs gives us a very small window of opportunity for snow tonight, you have to use the hourly viewer to really see it lol. The far west of yorkshire most at risk, extending further north and east into north and east yorkshire in the early hours. Not expecting much to have settled and be left by morning, but certainly could give an exciting couple of hours with very heavy snowfall dropping a couple of inches in that time. Most at risk of this heavy stuff western parts of west and south yorkshire tonight. I expect the snow over north and east yorkshire to be much lighter in nature but possibly a better qualityof snow and not as wet as western parts may experience. I still go with my snow forecast totals I made yesterday, but could be some temporary higher accumulations in a few isolated areas. Obviously altitude could be the deal breaker.

You can see the colder air cutting down the western fringes of england now. Suprisingly just 4c in blackpool. Less than half the temperature here in Otley (9.6C). Not often you see that in winter!

Absolutely bouncing it down here now! Easily 1 or 2" hour rainfall rates.

Not been as much rainfall as expected so far, but reckon this next batch pushing in to west yorkshire could easily drop a good 30-50mm in a couple of hours.

It's on netweather extra

A quick scan through the data and looks like 60% are showing lying snow overnight wednesday into thursday and 40% no snow. That's in yorkshire as a whole GFS/Icon - no lying snow Euro 4 and Aprege - some lying snow Netweather NMM - 4 and 12 and UKV, In favour of some lying snow Even where they are showing snow does look likely to be the far west of our region most favoured, with a few spots of snow to the north and far east. In my opinion most lying snow looks reserved for the hills and perhaps temporarily to lower ground. I don't expect this massive rain band that keeps pepping up to turn to snow over our region at any time, that will be reserved for parts of scotland and northern most parts of northern england. The wrap around of showers as the low deepens and pulls in a north westerly, as it departs is where the risk comes from. In our favour you can see the deep blues and purple on the 500 uppers, this would allow for a quick cooling once a shower hits and allow falling snow, the problem will be getting it to settle or stick around if it actually achieves the second part. Even with favourable dew point. Reason being, 0 degree isotherm of around 5/600m and 850 uppers of -4 just won't cut the mustard. Once a shower clears away the temperature will quickly rise above freezing, causing any snow cover to quickly melt. Especially with such strong winds, the cold air will be greatly mixed as winds coming off mild irish sea. A fair few members on here will know only too well what they can do! And that's with uppers near -10 Buy sunset thursday I'm going for a dusting to 1cm - 50m+ 200m+ In a few places 1-2cm 300m+ In a few places 2-5cm. These estimates mostly apply to west/ north and few isolated parts of east yorkshire. Mostly on a whole there will be no lying snow.

Keeping a close eye on the river wharfe in Otley, although not rained much here all day from looking at the radar seems to be lashing it down in the dales at the river source.

Looking like a bit of sleet/snow thursday morning but any appreciable coverings seem reserved for high ground, albeit temporary. Lower down maybe a slushy light covering, melting in the afternoon. All attention has to be on the risk of flooding. Could be quite nasty come thursday morning after the lag upstream down into the valley basins. Usual areas prone to flooding could be in for a torrid time, perhaps historical in few isolated places. Again sticking to my forecasted outlook the other day of the weather being atlantic orientated with any cold/ appreciable snow short lived and reserved to highest ground until at least the very end of the month.

The problem is, once the localised factors are tipped in favour for snow thursday, according to that say that gfs run, the precipitation has about all but cleared/died away. Of which there will be be a quick rise in tmperature later on in the day to 3/4c. So even if we got that 1 or 2" snowfal, by late afternoon it woud be slop away from highest hills. What was special about last weeks event is we had heavy precipitation when conditions become optimal from 6am, all the way until about 3pm, so 9 hours continous moderate to heavy snowfall. It would take one almighty herculian swing in data for anything like that being closed to achieved!

Not a bad looking chart but how it got to that stage is the problem, the low off scotland is moving north and experiences tells me that is never a good thing in winter in terms of sustaining cold/blocking or drawing in colder air. We generally need it dropping south and east, pulling in colder air behind it or allowing blocking to develop in it's place. From this chart it looks as if that low out the atlantic is going to come through the bottom of our weak atlantic block and draw up milder southwesterlies. Hopefully this kind of rinse and repeat process shouldn't last more or much more than the 10 days I've suggested. I expect big changes towards cold and blocking at the end of this month

The models currently have any period of snow thursday restricted to the north east of england, perhaps just skirting inside into the dales of north yorkshire. A shift 50-100 miles south would certainly bring us into the game. But currently uppers, 0 degree isotherm, dew points and other factors just not conductive for snow for us at this moment. Even if we did get that shift, would be nothing like last thursday where the snow stuck around all day and beyond.. But not worth going into any detail just yet as can't see it happening.

Poor outlook on the models this morning, all 3 big guns gfs, ecm and ukmo all look in favour of a good 10 days of mobile Atlantic orientated weather. Any cold snaps look short lived with a plethora of lows barreling through. I think we have even taken a step back away from battleground snow events, heavy rainfall and flooding certainly look the name of the game. Maybe a little transient snowfall later in the week on the highest of ground, certainly no repeat of last Thursday, not in the slightest. Obviously things could change in the next 48 hours back in our favour but I think anything truly positive for us snow lovers will be deep Fi and not in next 10 days. I'm still going for a cold and snowy February when the effect of this SSW has had real chance to filter through downstream, stopping the Atlantic in it's tracks and allowing good height rises to our north and west. But I think another blow or two is needed on the strat before we see this. Patience is needed..

FI I know but even 166h on gfs shows an incoming slider with probably another snow event. More likely further south this time.

I tend not to bother with GEM, when some models are producing nice charts you will usually find the GEM churning out BOOM charts that never come to fruition. For me I just use big 3, then when there all in agreement for something good, I look at JMA and GEM just for some eye candy cos you know they will be showing the real good stuff haha.

Ridiculous amber warning from the met office yesterday, was crystal clear that there would be no appreciable snow anywhere this morning apart from a quick snow to rain transition. The only way it could have been would have been for an evaporative cooling event. The front was far too fast moving, plus there was never going to be a void of winds.

Quite suprised by the number of negative posts on here this morning, the outlook still looks wintry, cold at times, with the chance of snow in places up to 144h. And that's with all 3 big models in agreement GFS/UKMO and ECM! Obviously there is a somewhat north south split, The next week looks good for the northern half of britain and poor for the southern half. With a more NW focus in the coming days that would obviously bring more westerly places into play. I think northern ireland and northwest england should be in on the game next week, perhaps some good accumulations and even modest levels of alltitude. As ever the higher your alttitude the greater chance of settling snow in this set-up. I think at times in the north westerly flow next weak with deep blues on the 500 uppers, I reckon low levels around belfast, manchester for instance should get in on the act. We,ve just had a snow event I wont ever forget, 6" of snow (at 300ft) that has lasted untouched 36 hours from just a borderline battleground situation with no real cold uppers and a messy looking chart. Just shows we don't need these perfect easterly's and -12 uppers to get the good stuff. I see the charts flipping from one extreme to the other over the last week or so, when will people learn, rather than placing all eggs in one basket run to run just take a step back and judge them all on a daily or even two daily basis, much less stressful and you can give a more balanced summary. Someone tell me how the big 3 models are bad at say 144h, way beyond fi at the moment? Not the typical juggernaut of lows barreling west to east across the atlantic or the dreaded bartlett.

Just woke up, had a dusting from the first sliver of precipitation just pushed through. Now snowing lightly still temp creeping up yo now -0.4c expect at some point after next lot pushes in to turn to rain. Might be epic as it pushes in though at first with bright colours on radar.

Seems to be steamrolling in lol, would love something to develop ahead of the main band.

I hear the word evaporative cooling being banded around an awful lot over the years, now it seems to be mentioned every single snowfall the uk experiences. Am I right in thinking that tomorrow mornings snow event (in places) there will be no evaporative cooling as the wind will be be too strong during the precipitation, mixing out the colder air with parcels of milder air? What we essentially see is rain turning to snow briefly as it hit's the cold air, before the mixing of air parcels aloft quickly turn it to rain and filter down to the lower atmosphere. (obviously the further south east you go tomorrow the longer it will take to mix out the colder air.) Rather than the rain coming in heavy and over the process of an hour/more turning to snow due to the process of evaporative cooling.

Haha that's dedication . Hopefully you will get ya fix

No I still wouldn't .