Harsh Climate

And the award for the best place to live in yorkshire goes to...

Temperature drop slowed down now, now a steady 1.1c (otley) not sure what dew point is.

100% Beast from the east or north east. Nothing better than countless showers/ streamers coming in off the north sea dumping quality powder snow. Watching showers on the radar get closer then looking out ya window when there about to hit!

Yeah we look primed for lots of snow chances. Like they say some of best snowfalls are battleground ones or where sleet/rain has been forecast. Could imagine back in the day before some classics there would have been some dodgy looking overly borderline data at hand lol. Things are never gunna look perfect unless its 1987 with heavy snow showers driving in with temps of -4c lol .

Don't forget adam

Yeah I think your onto something. I think as time goes on north easterly winds should be more prevalent in our forecast. But to the extent of cold they bring in and how long they last I'm not so sure. I think the SSW is having an effect now and the juggernaut that is the atlantic maybe showing the first signs of meaningful weakening. Can see a terrific februrary coming up if signals upstream are to be believed. Hell a terrific end of january if we are lucky

I think gfs operational and ECM are pretty good tonight. Ukmo probably wouldn't be bad if it went further.

Highest I seen was upper of -1 with torrential rain turning to snow, gave a foot between 9pm-2am new years eve 1 year, but quickly turned to rain once the uppers exceeded 0.

Yeah looks mint

No, gunna check it out.

Just checked gfs 12z, if only!

Funny thing is after all the disagreement I've realised we have all reached pretty much the same conclusion tomorrow, but just arrived there in a different way . Albeit slightly different expected snow totals

I'm glad we agree on something mate

I'm not saying high ground only, I'm saying generally it will be high ground who will fair best tomorrow with lower areas much more marginal especially the further south you are over our region. Like you I think some low lying areas will see some snow and locally if everything comes into play upto 5cm. Maybe more north/west yorkshire. Il stick my neck on the line to be more clear here are my total estimates by the close of play thursday night.. North york moors/high yorkshire dales 10-20cm North/west yorkshire above 200m+ 3-10cm below 150m+ 2-7cm Below 80m 0-5cm SOUTH YORKSHIRE High ground above 300m 8-15cm Above 200m 2-7cm below 150m 0-5cm Below 80m 0-2cm wet variety. There you go that's what I think, might be right might be wrong.

I see that your looking very deep into the technical side of predicting snow, I respect and admire you for that. But I think too many times people can be drawn into a theory/model of forecasting that other factors aren't fully recognised or used in their anylsis. Like on paper if that formula you say is correct I think there are outside factors that could come into play that disrupt what you have said. 1.like changes in strength/direction of wind perhaps bringing in slightly milder pacels of air 2.small changes in precipitation rates like it could be quite heavy, then quite light for a bit. And not just that I think you can look at similar events in the past over the years and you can find patterns of what kind of weather scenario will produce what to a locale.. All in all though snow forecasting in the british isles is probably the hardest trait in meteorology so there will be differing oppinions time to time

Some good points made there. I agree it can snow with uppers close to or just below 0 but I've seen it first hand many years ago, it took hours of very heavy rain to turn the tide, tomorrow it certainly isn't going to match that intensity. I'll pull a total out of a hat and I think below 80m around say sheffield might get a couple of cm albeit bit wet, nothing to right home about but hey its something.

Again sounding very technical but no sense is made what so ever The colours on the map you show are exactly the same over yorkshire where there is the CHANCE of low lying snow, to the colours in say east anglia where it is guaranteed to be rain! So how do those charts prove your point??

You can clearly see the colder air been dragged in from the east as the low departs, this is what should tip the balance more in the favour for low ground tomorrow morning/afternoon. Again I don't think the precipitation will be heavy enough for evaportive cooling, also I think north and west yorkshire will fair best. Might be wrong might be right just my opinnion

And I see the word 'evaporative cooling being banded around an awful lot recently. To be honest when the snow line drops tomorrow for parts of our region giving lower areas a chance of snow it's mostly going to be because of the colder air been tucked in around the departing low, into our precipitation. The precipitation tomorrow looks like being mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst, again that isn't your typical evaporative cooling event.

Mate you live in rotherham, not sheffield

Yes coarse there is mate, but on a whole low down in south yorkshire I'm not expcting much in the way of snowfall. Would love to be wrong though and hope ya get a good dumping.

Yeah there is high ground around sheffield thatmight see some appreciable snow but there is also low parts more towards the centre and north east of the city around 200ft that will struggle to see settling.

I hope I'm wrong but come tomorrow I even have doubts that the snow will settle to low ground in south yorkshire, would be a cruel blow to those areas like sheffield and lincolnshire who have missed out just about every event so far this winter