Harsh Climate

Well just seen it and looks good. We have a period 06z Monday to 03z Wednesday anything that falls should be snow. About -7.5 average uppers..

Gfs about to roll out, can we please have those -7 / -8 uppers monday to wednesday a shade colder!

Yeah good point that. I've seen 3 minnie snow events so far this cold spell and 2 were quite a surprise. Even though little settled gotta be thankfull I probably seen more than a fair few people on net weather.

Tell me about it, when the snow arrived in from the North east around 11am it was only light/moderate in otley giving a dusting. Just north towards Pateley Bridge got paggered. Then second lot of showers came in, where sleet/ wet snow... Drove through cookridge on way to kippax to see what it was like as looking for a house there and was a winter wonderland! Another world, piling it down with snow with a good covering, that was about 3:30

Just goes to show you don't need a huge cold pool to the east or north east to get hammered before an upcoming cold spell. Look at how mild russia and scandinavia was on the 19th nov 2010, then how cold it was just 27th november 2010, the SSW event in itself brought the cold air in, rather than it already been there to tap into.

Yes but there can still be a brief stalling of the atlantic flow during any set-up, doesn't mean it's the precursor to a full SSW event. Like I believe before this upcoming SSW event takes place I think there will be a brief milder or less cold period. Like November 2010 when it's ready I think it will just come in and hit hard was massive northern hemisphere blocking and reverse zonal winds. Just my opinion but these are notoriously slow burners and I don't think it will have any effect on our weather until the end of the month or february. I've seen SSW forecast in february before but never materialised until april/may with fantastic synoptics, all so late lol.

I think it's too early for the SSW to kick in, I'm thinking more like late january/ early februrary.

lol it's only the 2nd january and you are basically writing this winter off! This cold spell far from finished and we are lucky to have such a promising set-up this early in winter, with a SSW event to come! We have 3 months where extreme winter conditions can occur so plenty of time to see something. And I don't want to hear about but it's too late in the winter to get good propper snow in march because march 2013/14 was one of the coldest ever in places, with a ton of snow at leeds bradford airport that lasted weeks, at least a week un melted.

GFS 228, has slider about to deliver snow to the south, probably help draw in a north easterly feed.

A note to anyone dissapointed in what the gfs shows, yes we want to see those brutal cold charts and not mild but look on the essembles. Cleary a 50/50 split or a 60/40 split in favour of cold (how ever good your eyes are) after 12th january, that is 10 days away and a trillion light years away in terms of what is FI! Had the gfs control run been one of those down at -9 for days, this place would be in jubilation! lol

Nice dusting here in otley, was a lovely suprise after finishing work Checked radar and just missed out on a good 1-2cm had the inital blob been further south Now lovely fat flakes falling but temp risen to 1.3c

Nice ECM 120. Hopefully gfs is having a wobbly.

Not for the south with uppers between 0 and 2. But for us on the northern side of the low certainly is

9/10?

Easterly Incoming?

I think this run is good simply by the fact the low doesn't drop south too quickly ( if at all) as others have alluded to any delay is a good thing

Ah were ok guys 168 hours looks good!

Like you, I can't see any signs of a mild spell, but I think there may be a mild blip in the lead up to something special mid january.

Not many comments on 144H ECM, think most people me included not sure what to make of it!

Well ECM 120 has got rid of the milder feed wednesday. Pivotal frames coming up.

ECM has -7 uppers with occasional -8 tuesday, good but would like colder

Could ya imagine if that was the control run, this place would have gone into melt down. Just shows the gfs control run isn't the be all and end all.

Even the toppler seems to be very slow in pushing in and might fail, rather than the gfs having the atlantic steam roll through which it normally like to do. Side note, anyone know why Fergie weather doesn't post on here anymore? Miss his professional view on the models and little hints of what the bbc/met are thinking lol

Gfs 12 z just produced the first -9 upper on next weeks easterly over east anglia. I really think the balance is shifting in favour of snow rather than sleet/rain monday to wednesday now! Each run has the uppers shading colder and colder. Be a -10 showing tomorrow, you watch I think the met office are calling it wrong

Another thing to keep an eye on is how this low develops next weekend. I know it's FI but it does look really likely we are going to see something aloong this lines. What we can't have for the initial snow chances associated with this feature, is for it to draw winds from the NNW straight down the country would clearly be dry in our region. NNE and it would pile the showers in, you would have to assume they would be snow.