Harsh Climate

Quite a varied difference in where the models are predicting how far east the feature currently over northern Ireland tracks.. It looks like it's breaking away from the northern arm of showers. I wouldn't be surprised if it dived south and only affected wales and the South West missing areas further east.

Looks to be dying now. No big loss though as mostly rain and sleet.

I think a lot of people are just airing on the side of caution. A lot of us have experienced some almighty let downs in the past and I'm talking about north easterlies with -15 to -20 uppers forecast to dump bucket loads of snow over the east at just 96 hours out (18z output) to shift a couple of hundred miles south on the next mornings (6z output) having france and germany absolutely paggered whilst we stay cold and dry.. Also I've experienced an easterly in january with seemingly decent uppers with heavy snow accumulations forecast all week, to end up with heavy wet snow every day and a horrible couple inches of slush.. Funny thing is first night of the easterly everything was going to plan, light powdery snow falling, turning heavier as I went to sleep with a couple of inches already accumulated, was expecting a bucket load by morning with days of it to come! Woke up to a slush mess, that was the biggest let down of all time! I'm going to have a look see if I can dig up the charts of these events. So while things are looking good, massive caution is advised this early, I say just enjoy the ride and what ever will be will be.

It's mostly sleet/rain with a few flakes mixed in even here in Otley at 100m elevation. Just been for a drive to the top of the otley chevin about 300m and propper snow their settling nicely albeit a tad wet.

Thank goodness this mornings GFS was a mild outlier, always best to check where a run sits in it's esembles before making a knee jerk reaction. As others have alluded to, good ECM and UKMO, so everything still on track!

I think a lot of people just don't realise how bitter that would be, most certainly would produce an ice day for some!

I think that would definately feed some snow showers in off the north sea, that lovely dry powdery type two

I wouldn't be buying a sledge just yet unless you have some high hills around you. I'm optimistic most of us will see some snow falling with perhaps a light covering in places at times but away from ground 200/300m+ there's nothing to suggest appreciable low level snow.. JUST YET.

Back edge snow anybody? Maybe a suprise covering for some sunday morning.

I'm happy with this mornings output, the last 2 days it looked like the charts where backing off long sustained cold/snow chances a little bit but now I get the feeling it's more likely after looking at all the output again. Gfs and ECM is certainly an improvement, UKMO not bad at all.

Although can't grumble at the charts as there's bags of potential, probably 7.5/10.. But am I right in thinking that while we have troughs/disturbances, low pressure around svalbard we are going to struggle to see any stellar 10/10 charts with either a perfect Greenland high or Scandinavian high? Just a nagging feeling, I'd hate to see 2 weeks of 1-4c max temps with sporadics rain/sleet/ wet snow events before a train of Atlantic systems smash their way in from the west? Obviously if your in the sub 5%, on ground 200/300m+ in the north these are near perfect charts.

I've experienced rain with uppers lower than -10 850hpa a few times . Could just imagine their little hearts when they have been out and bought new sledges because the charts are showing say -8 uppers with precipitation around, for it to only be a damp squib.. It's times like these it's best listen to the old heads on here who have experienced it all!

12z esembles out and again astonishing agreement with most perputations clustering at -5 850s or just below for many days

Still big differences between ECM and GFS at 120h, make of it what you will.

With charts like these showing albeit in deep FI who can be unhappy! I don't know. Come xmas day when were eating our xmas dinner we can be looking at the charts and dream what might be, atleast we have that and not endless zonality been shown. Esembles are great aswel, Not many perputations down to -10 but flatlinng most of the way at -5 is terrific consistencey. A lot of talk about 850s been cold enough? It works both ways I'm afraid, there are certainly a lot more parrameters in place to guarantee snow. I remember in 2010 when it started with a north/north easterly, we had uppers here of -11 850hpa, it rained!! Even when the temperature was -1.5c, unbelievable and other times we had propper snow with no melt at -4 850hpa..

Not sure why anyone would be downbeat this morning, very strange. From looking at this mornings output the main thing is we are still seeing a greenland high on gfs and I believe ukmo would leave to one two. What would be bad is if we woke up and there was no greenland high being shown. Looking for specifics this early and if quite ridiculous.. gfs is still a pearler. And Ukmo is only going one way and that's a greenland high.

Can't believe what I'm seeing, 36 hours ago It looked like the writing was on the wall for endless mild zonality with the occasional cool snap mixed in. I wake up this morning and not only have the models made a full 180' turn, we only have on offer the number 1, crem de la crem winter set-up possible for the UK, a GREENLAND HIGH!! . And now later in the day the ECM and UKMO have somewhat followed suit. As Van Tam would say, 'The train is now in sight! We still have a long way to go, but this is a good place to start.' And regarding looking at any specifics this early I wouldn't bother, the main thing is once we get a greenland high, that guarantees prolonged locked in cold and snow chances for all! Providing it isn't a west based NAO of coarse . So things to watch: 1.WAA heading up western side of greenland 2.Greenland high develops 3.WE don't end up with west based NAO. Then I say wax ya sledges, the snows a coming!!

Quite a wide variation in what the models are showing tonight in regard to the next 48 hours snow chances. Gfs parallel has quite a bit of snow for west/north yorkshire tonight, albeit at a bit of altitude. Could certainly be the odd surprise come tomorrow morning.

It's all brewing up now, let's see if we get lucky

Think storm starved north/west yorkshire might get something later today. Fingers crossed.

Looks like storms could die out for north/west yorkshire according to a few models. South/east yorkshire could see some. Linconshire obviously best situated

Looks like some places are going to get an unbelievable night show of lightning, what I would give for that!

The gap of no storms which were in, seems to be getting smaller towards the south and west of our region. Could see some develop soon in these areas. Looks poor for east of the region. Watch otley where I've moved from get hammered later...

Keep the faith cheese. I find gfs 0-24h precipitation charts quite good in situations like these. latest 12z charts is massive improvement on 6z and has showers (storms exploding over our region in due coarse. Our window of opportunity is now til 3am. We have bags of time.

Pitifull storms over uk, what does it take to get a good nightime display of lightning with torrential rain all night. I've seen it happen once must have been around 1992... And I was so young I paid little attentin to it