Harsh Climate

Oooo infact gfs 06z does correct a tad south, I hope this doesn't become a trend. A few crucial runs yet to come

I think when the precipitation comes into view on the day, If it reaches northern ireland, good news for the north.

GFS 78h still looks good for more northern areas. Also bbc had the snow on thursday night reaching as far north as southern scotland!

So it seems the Icon against most other models in extent of the northwards extent of the heavy/meaningful precipitation thursday How accurate is this model? GFS at <80h should shawly have a good grasp on this.

Hirlam Gfs Aprege

Steve to my suprise, I think the models still have it way further north than that. I would have the peak district derbyshire as current sweet spot thursday

Yes lee and downgrades for the south and south east Where nearly there! Again for me south yorkshire and parts of west yorkshire currently sweet spot for our region thursday. Nationally probably peak district in sweet spot.

I'm suprised, there was a hint of a shift further south last night on a couple of models. I like many others felt like there would be further corrections south on overnight runs and parts like northern england remaining dry but this isn't the case. Still looking very good for midlands/north west england/northern england. Time is running out very quickly for the south hitting the jackpot, somewhere is definately going to get a pasting where the precipitation pivots and becomes slow to clear..

I 'll bank this

That's right. Gfs 18 z has it as rain thursday a line south of bristol to north london. Perhaps even further north going by the next frame

I do heed a word of caution though, as steve murr has said in the main model thread, These do have a tendancy to correct further south near the time so this is far from being nailed on.

Latest Icon has sheffield as sweet spot out of the whole uk thursday! Right at the pivot point.

On the icon, just looks like a fast moving clipper from the west, Couple hours of snow producing maybe 1-3cm.

I was just showing what a perticular model is showing. Please pick your toys up and put them back in the pram

APRGEGE has mainly rain in the south east / kent tuesday night into wednesday Mostly snow to the north

Latest hirlam looks good All that moving south east

I think because most are brainwashed by the main cold/model threads constant harping on about the chance of snow in south east and southern england.. Making it seem like there the only areas at risk of snow. The way I see it we have a chance of snow tuesday night into wednesday, non disruptive but would be nice to get a bit of a covering. Our main chance comes thursday night into friday I believe with potentially disruptive snow for us guys.

Medium to long term, terrible GFS UKMO and ECM this morning theres no getting away from that! Although I don't think winters over by a long shot I have no problem with winters over posts right now, we are well into winter and have had nothing but let downs and hardly any snow to 95% of the UK so they are more than right to think that, that's there opinion. But as the other poster said, moaning about people moaning haha, to me that's even worse! On the bright side the latest GFS gives my area a good dumping instead of those in the south, I'm quite happy with that haha I give ya rule that I now stick to regarding tricky to pinpoint the exact path of a slider and it's heavy snowfall. It never eveeeer get's it right straight away, as soon as it shows up on the charts you can bet your bottom dollar it won't end up where previously shown. Just having a bit of fun I'm not taking that great snow chart as gospel, it's still too early, at this rate probably end up in scotland lol.

UKMO 8/10 for me, very nice. Cold with multiple chances of snow just about anywhere and I think the next few frames after could lead to even deeper cold! GFS also 8/10 so far. Very good!

I only really look at the ECM,UKMO and GFS with any interest. Nice when JMA,Icon show good charts but doesn't count for ....... without backing of the big three.

Big ECM coming up, for me ukmo is 7.5/10 and gfs 6.5/10 . At first I thought the gfs 00z run was poor taking the whole run into context but then after seeing all the snow chances on it next week I changed my mind ; ) and after that is just deep FI going on the major shannon entropy we seem to be having at the moment.

I disagree mate, ukmo looks great to me and an improvement on yestrerdays 12z. Look at 144h, a cold unstable northerly type flow with after a chance of more snow from the northwest later..

So this is the 'hunt for cold model thread' yet you don't think people should look past 5 days on the models? . Yes because trends and model agreements can't be found after five days can they?

Im not keen on the ukmo 12z, looks like a west based NAO setting up to me

Check out the face lol