Harsh Climate

Yeah, should be some great radar watching coming up.

From looking at the gfs we could have a window of opportunity 00z monday to 12z wednesday for showers to be all snow for most, obviously coastal areas and ground below 40m more marginal. 00z run had -8 uppers for a 48 hour period which is a real lengthy window to get good accumulations from showers packing in from the ENE. 06z unfortunately looks more like -7s which is right on the boundry of boderline... The next few runs are crucial, ignore what the met office and bbc are saying about next week, most snowfalls here they miss and then when they do forecast snow it doesn't, says it all really!

Yeah I reckon so. Beauty is though, once showers are all snow doesn't take long to get good accumulations, especially through the night. If we do get -8 uppers or colder monday ~ wednesday that is a very large window of opportunity to get good accumulations once the balance is tipped in our favour.

Probably be rain if were getting that now. Temperature up to -0.7c now, obviously with heavy showers the cloud would be thicker so that would raise the temperature even more.

If we were to get -8 / -9 uppers surely that would mean snow for all! No rain.

Crazy must be the warm uppers aloft, -0.9c here with very light rain/ice. Maybe freezing on certain surfaces?

Yeah looks about dead, like you say hopefully those showers can get us. Although mild sector incoming lol.

Snow o so close, shame it looks like it's going to die just before reaching my doorstep :(. Just shows ya guys had this precipitation been heavy like forecasted 1/2 days ago would have been all snow! Temperature -2.4c here in Otley.

Well I think the GFs 6z is a big upgrade regarding the easterly for North east England and Yorkshire. 36-48 hour window monday ~ tuesday upers of -7 with occasional -8. Would just tip the balance in our favour with some decent accumulations! Yes milder uppers on the way wednesday but would only be short lived.

Well I think the GFs 6z is a big upgrade regarding the easterly for Yorkshire. 36-48 hour window monday ~ tuesday upers of -7 with occasional -8. Would just tip the balance in our favour with some decent accumulations! Yes milder uppers on te way wednesday but would only be short lived.

Well I think the GFs 6z is a big upgrade regarding the easterly for North east England and Yorkshire. 36-48 hour window monday ~ tuesday upers of -7 with occasional -8. Would just tip the balance in our favour with some decent accumulations! Yes milder uppers on te way wednesday but would only be short lived.

Hi mate and welcome. I'm certainly not qualified to answer that question in any real depth lol but my opinion is that a recorded temperature of about 2/3c colder one day or more shouldn't really affect the synoptics too much, apart from maybe deeper cold pooling if we had temperatures close to freezing.. Obviously that COULD have a knock o later down the line with our locked in cold pool being tougher to shift as milder air try's to push in. The biggest benefit of having much colder temperatures than forecast in a set-up like this is as I've alluded to in a post above: *colder temps could prime the ground for marginal events in the future, tipping in our balance a marginal event, making it become a good snow event / or freezing rain event (I like them as a postman gives me more chance of getting day off with pay as too unsafe to deliver lol..) as ground/soil temps are lowered. *With the colder temps, showers coming in have higher chance of being snow, but say at night time shouldn't have too much of an effect as temperatures rise as showers come in anyway.. Hope that is of help, I'm sure though someone with greater technical knowledge can chip in.

Looks like Edinburgh is about to get a good spell of snow. I notice this area always seems to get snow streamers when showers packing in from the north with any kind of easterly influence! Great place to live i this kind of set-up.

Here's my ratings of this mornings run in terms of snow chances and potential: ECM - 9/10 Bitterly cold north easterly incoming. GEM - 8.5/10 - North easterly incoming UKMO - 8.5/10 - Looks primed at 144h for great retrogression of high to greenland and low plunging south pulling in north easterlies, shame run doesn't go any further. GFS control run - 7/10 - Upto 264h pretty decent synoptically GFS essembles - 7.75/10 - Good cluster below -5 850 hpa until around 7/12 then after that FI but still with a good amount of members around -5, signs of long sustained cold. ICON - 6/10 - Looks not so great with a slight warm up but it does look like the cold just about to hang in and more retrogression on the way. All in all delighted with this mornings output. Great long term but like others have alluded would just like *Deeper cold pooling into europe/russia/scandinavia. *Uppers of -7/8 when sun-tue easterly packs the showers in.

Here's my ratings of this mornings run in terms of snow chances and potential: ECM - 9/10 Bitterly cold north easterly incoming. GEM - 8.5/10 - North easterly incoming UKMO - 8.5/10 - Looks primed at 144h for great retrogression of high to greenland and low plunging south pulling in north easterlies, shame run doesn't go any further. GFS control run - 7/10 - Upto 264h pretty decent synoptically GFS essembles - 7.75/10 - Good cluster below -5 850 hpa until around 7/12 then after that FI but still with a good amount of members around -5, signs of long sustained cold. ICON - 6/10 - Looks not so great with a slight warm up but it does look like the cold just about to hang in and more retrogression on the way. All in all delighted with this mornings output. Great long term but like others have alluded would just like *Deeper cold pooling into europe/russia/scandinavia. *Uppers of -7/8 when sun-tue easterly packs the showers in.

I think it's a shame that where likely to not get anything today now apart from maybe a mere dusting later.. But for me it's stil a very decent cold spell, every thing gradually geting colder and snow on the hills all around otley/ilkley. Aslong as this cold stays locked in chances will present themselves! Also the more days we can squeeze with temps only 1 / 2c with night frosts down to -2, this wil prime the ground for the future, future marginal snow events tip inour favour and even rain can become a freezing rain event lol. I don't trust the forecasted temps of 4 / 5 c next week, I think under cloud cover or precipitation temps could struggle higher than 2c in places..

Well after seeing the 00z gfs control run I thought O hear we come downgrades on the way! But ECM,UKMO,GEM all great medium to long term, can't hope for any better than that :) Need to see gfs essembles hopefully they on par

Gfs having tomorrow a non event now, precipitation from North rapidly weakening as it spreads south Thursday evening. As soon as anything moves south across the spine of the country the Highlands and Southern uplands eat it all up. Looked promising a day or two ago when it looked like pushing in from the North East.

240h I've seen worse.

Just imagine if the centre of that low north west of Ireland was positioned over London

Yeah thats what I'm thinking, that would be perfection. But beggars can't be choosers I will take what it has on offer lol

192h. Looks great!

ECM looks about as good as it could upto 144hours. Showers packing in off the North Sea. Would like uppers of -7 / -8 but -5 might be ok away from the coast!

They haven't got a clue nor the bbc, I think we will definately see snome snow tomorrow evening/night!