Harsh Climate

I think the second lot will be more in way of showers, if they come late enough tyeing in with arrival of tad colder uppers of -6 from the north that may just give us some snow that sticks around with little to no melt.

The problem with thursdays snow is not that we are going to miss it (too far west) it's that it will turn to rain on it's back edge or simply start melting in the afternoon. Such a shame as for days thursdays event was progged for the evening/night, but now it's quickly been brought forward. At night any thaw with higher uppers been brought in with precipitation, would have been minimal and probably followed by a frost. Never mind on the flip side most of us should get to see snow falling at a nice time, not some antisocial time through the night lol. Here's likeliest position of snow band come noon.

Unbelievable, covering of snow in kippax when left girlfriends house (59metres high) Yet at work in ilkley (103m) nothing! Thought it was going to be the other way round lol

Check out the low just spawn out of thin air at 192h over the UK, about to drag in bitter north easterlies. Weather porn to say the least!

Yeah I can see it somewhere in between. To be honest I've about given up with predicted precip models, there all over the place!

18z now has central southern England and Kent in sweetspot Wednesday now, impossible to nail down anytime soon lol

Gfs 18z has tonight sleet snow further north and west now, but a lot heavier and more focused into a smaller area.

Day in question Tuesday is colder though, looks bitter

You and smokeone are probably right regarding widespread snow. Maybe IMBY but with -4 uppers across a much longer draw across the North Atlantic sea we had sleet here with snowline about 750 feet yesterday. I'm sure with a shorter and dryer feed from the east the same -4 uppers would make the world of difference here atleast. But I could be wrong haha

Anyone doubting the convective potential of next weeks potential easterly think again, just for fun look at what ECM shows for Tuesday 5th january with just -4 / -5 uppers.. And I believe that the precipitation packing in from the North Sea would be all snow, due to the relatively short distance the air is tracking over the North Sea!

Ecm precipitation chart for 5th January. Even with just modest uppers of -4/-5 still produces plenty of showers, interesting times indeed.. And with the air travelling a relatively short distance over sea I would fancy that to br mostly snow! Obviously deep in FI but nice to sea the convective potential even without brutal uppers.

Problem is when showers arrive, the temperature rises a little probably due to the cloud cover acting as a blanket.. And not only that pockets of milder air mixed in with the showers off the North Sea can also spike the temperature, as someone in Scotland thread just reported rain at a temperature of 0c with dew point of -1c! . Forecasting snow is notoriously difficult but all that said I think there will be a pleasant surprise for some come 6am tomorrow morning. I think the biggest chance will come between 3-6am as the showers have banded together creating a more persistent band of precipitation/ or streamers thus negating the factors I've just mentioned bringing the temperature back down low enough for settling snow. In otley 100m I'm expecting at very least a light wet covering.

GET OUT!! No good post, your probably not far off it 60/40 although I'd say more 70/30. We are by no means there yet, I think if this was to go go the way of the pear, which we have seen many times before there would be a lot of suicidal people on here! That is why I'm still waiting to see what happens before I let my self fully go with excitment lol,

Both Icon and Aprege are much further south than ECM too. Huge caution advised this early on.

Euro4 showing nothing on wednesday apart from a little patchy rain in the channel Must be way off. In all serious, you can almost guarantee where most predicted snow charts are showing 48 hours out the places affected will almost be different 12 hours out. Will be a classic case of Nowcasting.

192H O my, looks what's about to drop out of Svalbard

Ye looks that way, could get as far north as oxford but no where near us. Plenty of opportunities to come though!

-6 uppers and an open low from looks of 48-72, would almost certainly be all snow on northern side.

ECM out to 72h, steady as she goes.

Am I right in thinking that the met office 'no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere' in their long range forecast will be dropped tomorrow? From looking at the latest output we are on the cusp of something very big!

Looks as if snow can come from anywhere this week, this is the first hints I've seen of a good cheshire gap scenario.. This is wednesday morning on the net weather extra UKV model (I think it's called) Coincides with colder uppers of -6 coming in, would almost certainly be snow.

All eyes to the east now. Looking good for a spell of sleet/snow moving in from the North Sea tonight. As with this mornings snow near Manchester some should do well locally and some not so well..

That would be nice :). Certainly can't rule anything out, now casting is king.

Yeah think with no real change in uppers (around -3) and the wind coming off the sea, albeit different side I can't envisage the temperature been much different than today. Obviously if it was heavy enough that could bring down the temperature and snowline down locally.. As always the case when we get colder uppers later in the weak precipitation on current charts seems to be reduced..

I was expecting that little feature tomorrow night to dissapear but its still showing on gfs 18z, certainly something to keep an eye on. Early indications suggest inland and probably 150m+ for snow.