Harsh Climate

Great start to the morning *gfs op has better breakdown, slower and snowier, better angle of attack from the atlantic. *ukmo is very good two. 144h on latest 00z run is better than yesterdays ECM at same day. Let's hope the next ECM coming out soon can give us 3/3 this morning GFS UKMO

Yeah when snow showers start rattling in from the east really will be heaven, tracking the showers on radar, looking out window for big cumulus/ towers and then if your lucky streamers set up shop over ya house.. :: )) Yeah!!

Oooo latest fax chart has a convergence zone north yorkshire on monday, could that come a little bit further south west please on the next update!

Looking good first thing mate *gfs op has better breakdown, slower and snowier, better angle of attack from the atlantic. *ukmo is very good two. 144h on latest 00z run is better than yesterdays ECM at same day. Let's hope the next ECM coming out soon can give us 3/3 this morning GFS UKMO

This is my current take on this upcoming cold spell/snap from reviewing current data. Yes I've gone big CURRENT WARNING 5th/februrary 12z - 10th/februrary 12z. Warning structured into 3 tiers. Yellow/Amber/Red Red area: 10-30cm low ground, 30-40cm 200m+, 300m+ 40-70cm Orange area: 10-30cm all levels, perhaps more at highest elevation. Yellow area: 2-10cm all levels. SYNOPSIS: Areas of rain/sleet/snow over central/southern/eastern scotland and cumbria should turn readily to snow at all levels as friday progresses, giving significant to large accumulations in places. This area of snow should extend southwards later saturday to northern england then the rest of eastern uk later sunday, giving significant accumulations in places especially the further north and east. It will most probably be lighter and more patchy the further south east. After that a cold showery polar airstream from the east establishes itself over most of the uk (sunday-wednesday) delivering frequent snow showers and streamers to many eastern areas, at this moment in time the further north east the more likely for higher accumulations. The far south east should have more organised bands of sleet/snow circulating around the centre of low pressure towards france, crossing the channel time to time. There maybe the opportunity for a large snow event from this but too early to say, but on the flip side for avid snow fans being close to this low pressure centre you are less likely to have the frequent snow showers, a possible DRY ZONE between the two airmasses.

This is my early take on snow totals. Clearly a lot of water to go under the bridge before we can be more certain but I gone big CURRENT WARNING 5th/februrary 12z - 10th/februrary 12z. Warning structured into 3 tiers. Yellow/Amber/Red Red area: 10-30cm low ground, 30-40cm 200m+, 300m+ 40-70cm Orange area: 10-30cm all levels, perhaps more at highest elevation. Yellow area: 2-10cm all levels. SYNOPSIS: Areas of rain/sleet/snow over central/southern/eastern scotland and cumbria should turn readily to snow at all levels as friday progresses, giving significant to large accumulations in places. This area of snow should extend southwards later saturday to northern england then the rest of eastern uk later sunday, giving significant accumulations in places especially the further north and east. It will most probably be lighter and more patchy the further south east. After that a cold showery polar airstream from the east establishes itself over most of the uk (sunday-wednesday) delivering frequent snow showers and streamers to many eastern areas, at this moment in time the further north east the more likely for higher accumulations. The far south east should have more organised bands of sleet/snow circulating around the centre of low pressure towards france, crossing the channel time to time. There maybe the opportunity for a large snow event from this but too early to say, but on the flip side for avid snow fans being close to this low pressure centre you are less likely to have the frequent snow showers, a possible DRY ZONE between the two airmasses.

A quick one from me, went to sleep with one doubt in mind after reviewing last nights data. *On a whole across most models, sunday-wednesday the postitioning of the easterly was close to this chart I've pinned. What I feared if this was to be the final solution for the easterly, we was very close to no-mans land (gfs and ecm last night had us just right side though) between the cold polar feed to NE Britain with beautiful snow showers/ towers piling in with zero marginality and the slightly less cold frontal/ shortwave stuff to the SE Britain. In that situation between the 2 key areas there is usually a DRY ZONE or the showers are light, we had that in 2010 with areas like Newcastle/Middlesbrough north getting pumeled for days with snow showers and more frontal snow in the south east. Yes there was the odd exception with the streamer that paggered scunthorpe > doncaster > sheffield but was generally rule of thumb. So this morning hiding behind my computer chair honestly fear full of thatand days similar to the chart I posted but no overnight it has all gone even more in a favour and we are well inside that beautifull polar airmass with frequent heavy snowshowers. And that is after a period of snow moving down from the north saturday night into sunday! Happy days for all of or region!

Is perfect for our region isn't it Maye a tad more marginal for south east england but we stuck in feed of heavy snow showers, temperatures right side of marginal without question!

Yeah ECM is good cos it sticks close to it's 00z run, albeit a tad watered down, but is certainly no upgrade. Most probably because there wasn't much room to upgrade any further. The fact we've avoided any noticeable backtrack is a minor victory in itself though!

In my opinion the met office are going 100% with their own model the UKMO which as you can see is picture perfect. In the fax chart's own right for saturday 12z which it shows, would probably be more sleet and rain the further south east you head. But look at the position of that occluded front straddling the country and changing frames from friday to saturday, later saturday any sleet/rain would be turning more readily to snow and by sunday would be frequent snow showers blowing in on strengthening easterly winds!

Fax chart for saturday is a beauty, UKMO sticking all guns blazing in with there own model it would seem.

Fax chart for saturday. Oh my looks perfect to me! Heavy snow showers spreading down the whole eastern side of the UK!

All eyes on a massive ECM run coming up! I feel as if the ECM 00z was the best possibility that showed up, I can't see a huge climb down but something more watered down will probably be shown. If so I hope that doesn't precede a torrent of 'ECM is big downgrade' posts.. lol. I see 3 possibilities on data shown at the moment for the end of this week into next week. 1.Light snow showers blowing in from the east for a few days before milder weather pushes in. 2.(Most Likely) Couple days of heavy snow showers packing into more eastern areas with a revert back to a more battle ground scenario as we lose easterly winds. 3. (Best option) I've seen charts looking very similar to a 1987 style set-up with 2/3 days of heavy snow for pretty much the whole eastern side of England, with lesser amounts elsewhere. Boy would I love that to come to fruition! After now witnessing 3 big dumps of snow already this winter, I now think any things possible!

Fantastic UKMO and GEM this afternoon, a bit of an iffy gfs control run but probably be on milder side of its essembles. Would love ECM 12z to match last nights run but will be a bit of an ask, might get a slightly watered down version. We are not far away from at least a couple of glorious days with heavy snow showers blowing in on a strong easterly breeze, with max temps not exceeding -1/ -2c for most areas. An other idea i saw banded around was a 1987 type set up with 2/3 days heavy snow setting up for pretty much the whole eastern side of england. We shall see.

Seems like most of yorkshire had similar totals, didn't get any measurements but looked to be a good 10-15cm in ilkley. Did make for a a tough day on the post though.. Atleast got all the covid test kits delivered!

Check out the next band expanding with deeper colours towards manchester, this is what's going to do the damage this morning!

Anyone who says the ukmo 12 z isn't great needs there eyes testing! Looks bloody good to me.

Looks good for south yorkshire but can't see it reaching as far north as leeds. Could even end up 200 miles south, so lots of water under the bridge before we even have a good idea.

Yep, overnight data has destroyed any chance of a good snow event thursday. Can see many opportunities popping up over the next 10 days or so though!

I think at the moment above 200m for a big dumping. 100-199m more marginal, could be the case of 25m making all the difference. Further updates needed. Depends on 3 factors: *How heavy the precipitation is (Aids evaporative cooling.) *How slow moving/persistant the band is *How much wind there is. (Too much wind can negate the effects of evaporative cooling, which should come into play thursday.) All three of these factors come in our favour and that snow line I mentioned could be a good 150m lower with all of us in the game!

I feel your pain, can have heavy wet snow here (103m) with small deposit of slush, yet few miles away about (200m) where Cheese Rice lives, 6" of snow! Better had not happen again this thursday!

As I predicted 10 days ago, gfs falling perfectly inline with my forecast. February shaping up very nicely. And just before februrary there could be a couple good battle ground snow events before the atlantic starts to back off!

Gfs 12z looks a pearler out in FI

Great point that, any factors falling in our favour this early, no matter how small could have huge impacts later down the line

Thanks