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From looking at this mornings output I think we are just sitting on wrong side of marginal. Snow reserved to hills of north/west yorkshire perhaps penetrating to lower levels at times but struggling to settle. That is my current view on thursday. But like that snow event a couple fridays' ago, things can quickly change and it's still a possibility for appreciable lowland snow thursday.. Albeit a small chance at this stage.
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The ECM tonight is an absolute dream, but usually this far out any sweet spot if there is to be snow usually ends up at least 100/200 miles north or south of where initially predicted. Can't be disregarded, certainly on the table but I'd give probability at this stage of around 5% that chart verifies. Some snow to lowish levels about 20%..
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Model output discussion 24/01/21
Harsh Climate replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Tonight into tomorrow morning has all the hall marks of the 'Aire gap' coming into play. Winds perfectly aligned to bring showers through settle > skipton> ilkley> Otley. Might get a nice little covering! Other area of interest looks like areas just east of manchester (cheshire gap). Peak district > sheffield > maybe rotherham to name a few places. Think showers should be more organised here in general. At the moment can't see any snow sunday, looks far too south of us, although southern parts of south yorkshire match just catch something.
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There's no question it's going to change over to snow in the areas already mentioned but the big concern is how long will the precipitation last? I just cant see it lasting long enough for any medium-big totals. Will probably be just be more of a novalty event seeing it hammer down with snow for a short time lol.. Still some could wake up to a little covering.