i luv snow

But cut-throat reactions to single runs is much more helpful, than teaching people to look at the bigger picture, not discounting all previous runs and taking the most recent as gospel without even waiting for the ensembles? That is the issue here, not whether a run is a upgrade or downgrade.

I think the issue is the reactions to the runs, things yesterday were trending in the right direction and this has been one run, so we will have to wait and see how the models evolve today. People who say they would rather see a snowy breakdown, this would probably be maybe a few hours of snow which turns to rain/slush, followed by SW's. Is that really what people want? Or would you want to keep the cold and wait for snowy opportunities to arise, which they always do? So that said, I think today we should we hoping to see evolution's more in step with yesterdays runs.

The UKMO has been consistently and solid over last 2/3 days. This is one run where the undercut isn't there but it it is still great for cold. ECM and GFS are still chopping and changing. So I wouldn't count your chickens just yet... it is not wise to have such rollercoaster reactions to each and every single run of each model.

I think you are discounting the constant changes and swings from the GFS, compared to the relative consistency of the UKMO.

Well I am a linguist, so I was going by the literal meaning, rather than the meteorological one. Bad form I know. Either way, was having a laugh.

Exactly, the models still haven't settled down. The cold is the most important (for now) and we don't yet know how things will evolve. There will be changes, and it could go either way but one thing we definitely can't do without is the cold! And cold is definitely what is being shown on the models...

Being pedantic, but to retrogress is to go back to an earlier state, which could technically be E to W or W to E, N to S or S to N depending

-10oC to -15oC still being shown on the charts I am looking at. GFS included.

If you were reading the posts this morning, particularly from Steve M, January 2013 in a very similar set-up to this. Food for thought? UKMO has been pretty consistent just hopefully not consistently wrong.. quite a few members on here have said this has been a potential outcome from the models, once they began to get a better handle on things. We can but cross our fingers!

Whilst I understand your feelings, in my opinion it really is still up in the air. The ensembles will probably reflect this too. Crazy as it sounds at this time frame, more runs really are needed.

If, and it's a big if, they did, it wouldn't be 24 hours though would it? Ensembles of GFS and ECM continue to show similar evolutions, so this really isn't so clear cut at all.

But the GFS has been chopping and changing the most, and when it shows these more progressive solutions, is nearly always not backed up by the ensembles. Also, the GFS is always too progressive when modelling the end of cold spells, so that suggests an output more like that of UKMO or ECM. As always, an all important ECM to come.

I was going to post the same. I grew up and lived in East Anglia until 2011, and have now lived in Manchester since 2013, and so far (and this may just be timing with the 2 pathetic Winters we have had since), the East usually manages to fare best for snow. Much to my dismay and disappointment of course!

And also, that with nearly every cold spell which arrives on these shores, models consiistently show an end to it before it actually happens, underestimating how hard it is to shift the cold. So with both these points in mind, bah humbug to the nay-sayers. Particularly those who clearly just try to wind-up others, luckily only one or two. There will be many changes yet! All exciting times though...

I don't think this has been sorted out yet, there will be lot's more changing. And with these sypnotics, you'd have to be excited about even further cold and snow prospects after next week's cold spell, which still looks fairly decent for alot of the country. Regardless, the runs will continue to play around with different scenario's, fear not.

Agreed, also opportunities for further snowfall would probably pop-up nearer the time, but the main issue to get the cold in and entrenched.

But we have been there before, get the cold in, then worry about precipitation at +24 (or less). PPN charts, as inaccurate as they usually are, often show little (although some are showing copious amounts this morning), only for PPN to crop-up at the last minute. Yes, the opposite happens too. One thing is for sure, it will be getting a lot colder, cold enough for snow across most of the UK, period. And we have to hope the ppn comes with it! Which I think the current models are suggesting it will..

I'm sorry but you can post this when that is what the models show (IF they ever show it) but you can't make statements like that when the charts aren't showing it. It is unfair to those people who use the forum for information. At the very least, be clear it is speculation based on what you suspect might happen, despite what the models show.

I know I shouldn't bite the bait, but this is not true, this isn't what the models are showing.

As discussed above!

They do go on to talk about further cold spells in the next section too though..

Those sorts of forecasts aren't always the most accurate though!

Seriously? I really don't think that is what is being shown by most models..

I wouldn't say that was necessarily true, they might not have the confidence to put any more just yet, or they may be biding their time. God knows, we have all seen before how reluctant they are to commit to cold on these forecasts, especially given the time frame. I suggest if the models stay the same, there will be changes soon enough. Particularly by end of the week.

FInally, I hope there are a lot of people a lot happier this morning. GFS and UKMO looking great, but this is what the ens were telling us yesterday. ECM not as great, but still a 4 day cold snow which will no doubt see a few snow potentials. We are starting to move in to the stage where we can say a cold spell (of at least 4 days) is looking more likely than not, with potential for longer. Great stuff. I moved north to Manchester almost 2 1/2 years ago thinking I would see more snow than down south, but this would be my first proper cold 'spell' if it verifies. Exciting times for most of the UK IMO. And thanks to those that have stayed positive, or at least optimistic, despite the endless negativity yesterday! Here's to some more crackin' runs today!