Rustynailer

LOL it is not a Doppler radar at all it is a BBQ... The fresh earthquake is not at this end of Iceland it is over to the South West at Grindavik, a populated area, at least a mag 4 I think... Reykjanes peninsula there will be a green star in a new place for this event in the West, of course rifting can put strains on the rest of the ridge through Iceland, the Reykjanes just another part, stress release I would think... BBQ looks great

The ash bit is quite straightforward, it is the gas bit, Icelandic rifting fissure type eruptions are totally different in this respect, they contain high concentrations of the worst gasses, unlike St Helens, which was much kinder with the gas output. Its the build up that is worrying, if it gets around the Northern Hemisphere it stays and just builds up if the fissure keeps spewing it out. Today the plume from the fissure has got thicker and more poisonous I think. I think Jon will have thought it through before he pressed the mouse clicker, like you say he is usually right not often wrong with Icelandic volcanoes. Looks like some ash from the fissure on Mila 1 it has been seen by scientists over the past few days out of one of the vents, looks like it is back. Nice gallery http://www.ruv.is/frett/holuhraun-eruption-picture-gallery Especially the Askja shot. RE the possible fissure eruption under the ice, if it is nearer to Bada, it should I think have more eruptive pressure behind it, emphasis I think. The flow in the river center Bada 1 has increased I think more water vapor visible Fresh quakes on the way. Local to DYN station maybe interference not sure they are not on the drums. Bada 2 looks a ghastly color. White van man, mean looking passion wagon that... Quote IMO:- 8th September 2014 19:20 - from geoscientist on duty The earthquake activity today continues at the northern part of the dyke intrusion. The largest earthquake in the dyke since the end of August occurred at 16:27 today with magnitude 4.5. The largest earthquakes located today at the caldera rim: kl. 06:15, M 4,8 kl. 07:20 M 4, 6 kl. 14:48, M 5,0 kl. 17:53, M 4,3 An earthquake swarm is taking place north of Herðubreið. About 80 earthquakes have been recorded today, all below magnitude 2. Swarms in this area are not uncommon. Due to high concentration of SO2, scientists are leaving the area. End of Quote... north of Herðubreið :- Only the bottom 3 checked to 90% no 99% as yet. The person by the van on Mila 1 has just waved at the camera and has been acting daft for us aswell Big one on its way looks like a 5. Make that a 4 @21:21 UK

Jon Frimann the man in Iceland that predicted EJ in 2010, has just said (quote) There is also clue that central part of the caldera floor is now so soft that it no longer breaks and creates earthquakes, it is just buckling under the strain. This increases the risk of eruption in the central caldera up to almost certainty levels (for me that is 96+% chance of happening). http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/ Jon has also stated that the Volcano is making its own weather and I think he means local acid rain, farmers are shifting stock etc... The swarm N of Askja still rumbles on... Updated todays EQ's ...

Howdy John. Our High pressure should help for now re air disruption, lets hope it builds and stays for a good while.. I have not got links for the charts Lorenzo, asked about all that stuff was lost sometime between this year and the last one in 2011 The Mila 1 and more so 2 look ominous at the moment... Another Mag 4 just happened around 17:40 Iceland Time, likely the fissure under the ice, I think it has erupted its just got to do some damage to the ice covering it. Bound to be a pretty good flood in front of the cams. I would say 80% that it is a new fissure eruption at this point in time. No the Mag 4 I just mentioned 17:40 IT was under Bada I think...

Yes the main event could well take days, the volcano is so big and complex, the build up proper may well have started, if it has a gradual increase in activity is bound to be easily noticeable for us here , we have so many lovely tools to sit here and watch with. First thing that will happen I think, most likely is an exciting fissure break out under the glacier away from Bada, it is bound to look great, afterall this is Iceland , lets hope the weather lets us see some of the action...

The two large quakes just were under the glacier near the fissure... This could well be a dramatic evening folks, JP that caldera File is alarming but expected... Even the fissure at H looks a bit darker. A link of the camera's, sometimes they keep the feed longer than we can...http://volcams.malinpebbles.com/pubweb/Iceland.htm it has the borehole strain of Hekla too, very usaful, if that fails then

Large couple of EQ's ...

Well perhaps in that case, you may be interested to know that the quake I could not find was likely in the ice above Bada, It looked like a 4+ but it will not be possible to get an accurate figure I think. It is at 11:38 here Note not accurate yet it has not even been auto corrected to 90%

08.09.2014 07:20:04 64,618 -17,396 4,7 km 4,7 99,0 6,8 km ASA af Bárðarbungu Two on the drumplot The quake I mentioned "about 11:40" is there but only small as it is somewhere else, I can not find it...

If the caldera fails the gps could give a few hours warning possibly. In the likes of a VE4 through to 6, this will save lives and allow the demolition of embankments saving bridges and other infrastructure from the dreaded glacial flood water. Obviously if there is a phreatic explosion before collapse, the GPS equipment will just become ejecta... I think the GPS helicopter bit is rather like Thunderbirds, I hope they get away with it, mind I am sure it would take more than a helicopter to set the collapse off, a mag 6 would be needed most likely...maybe. Another Mag4+ at around 11:40 Iceland time. Something at Katla too, but only ice quake or a small EQ I think, about 11:40 IT aswell.

The system is busy with other calculations, but they are there alright, they will appear on the main chart today, when someone is allowed to spend the time fixing it, I suspect...

It is because the lava is flowing freely it does the EQ's when there is a blockage, these blockages are what can back the pressure right back to Bada and cause an eruption there, won't be quiet then alright. The morning EQ,s show clearly**, I would imagine they are upper 4's, I don't expect a correction of the IMO site until later today. I would also imagine the fissure under the glacier will make an appearance complete with explosions and ash cloud at some stage over the next couple of days, In here own right Bada will erupt I think, due to the draining of magma and the fissure activity destabilizing her flanks, it is just as soon as the ice covering the caldera gives up the struggle against the inevitable...In my opinion. ** Map of Bada... Area on map I think the bare cliffs are called Skul, Kista and Keila I have marked them with a yellow arrow, they are as one now, the map is quite old...Note the nice little vortex lower left. Nothing to worry about at Katla, just those pesky Ice quakes again... Those clouds above the Doppler radar dome are getting darker and the funnel clouds and small tornadoes are becoming larger and more frequent. For those that study tornado development this Mila cam and Number 2 is a great asset, the rotation of that dark cloud is very interesting to watch, mesmerizing...

The rotation that is appearing in the cloud above the Doppler radar on Mila 1 is the water vapor and gasses from the lava, it is at the meeting point with the river they are condensing at cloud level, sometimes just a little lower. Again I witness this happening above Fawley fuel refinery when viewed from the Isle of Wight, the effect is exactly the same. The water vapor condenses when conditions allow, below that level it is too hot... Good rotation is visible.

According to this file there was an explosion last night at the caldera ... When these things start showing I think it is only a matter of time... I still speculate on a North Eastern flank collapse, sweeping the glacier down that flank with it. Not nice. Overview, weather or not this mornings was a 5.7 or a 5.4 remains to be seen... It is misty/foggy so we can not see very far on the Mila cams, sods law says it will do its thing at a time like this...

The upgrades come after further human calculations. The fissure is capable of shifting some Ice down hill fast I fear. Explosive activity is almost inevitable, it would be daft to be anywhere near the place now I think. I hope people stay well away, it is like a bad gas leak... Look where the action is.

http://www.epa.ie/air/quality/data/rm/gas/#.VAtyOfldXeJ This looks serious. That is all I am busy. http://ruv.is/frett/rannsaka-blaa-modu-a-austurlandi

If the magma can not pierce the Ice just like Hawaii it breaks out at a lower level like it has with the fissures here. The danger in Iceland is the melting fissures cut away at something a bit like coastal erosion, big collapse out of sight.... that blocks things up a bit, back pressure is dangerous, also don't forget those long period waves... I like the complicated cross dangers, like some complicated railway junction ten times the size of Clapham or Crewe, the signal box is awe inspiring. That is as like as I can get a reference too.

C returning wave...Ice might not like. The likes of which make ice lubricate its self with its own dust, like graphite in a pencil... Various volcanoes and mountains in the area are outgassing, they have been for days, just like Fawley fuel works does from the Isle of Wight, clouds form above the rest and billow in the direction of the wind where they emerge and condense... The waves have a gradual build up then a cliff like drop off that is not good with ice. Put a blow lamp under it and it is any one's guess. Looking at the quake map the ice will go in the direction of the fissure. A line from the far West to the North East, like JO groats tho Lands end is having their tremor charts have a background increase, the Internet shows the way... To a point it will sharpen the incoming wave until it breaks explosively, sorry, but it is true. At the very least it is heating up rock, that did not need heating at the moment. Pretty tourist eruption.

About now is the returning wave I will post the pic in a separate go. Like we used to.

The sharp tip of the fissure is likely to cause some in Iceland to shudder at this video. That is quite normal DNA Don't you know, The only question that is an answer, so there is no ???????????????????????????????????? 19;50 UK time deduce most likely outcome ; flank collapse under glacier, Bardabunga Normal VE 4, with glacier...That will be at least a five under the @600m thick ice layre, fractured by the quakes it is very unstable, personally felt a 5,4 in 1984, I say the ice is an unreliable arch, just like Mr Brunel would have. NE flank, within hours over 70%. om that. If not then further period but flank collapse inevitable. I think the 70% is the best I can do. 100% on the Mr Brunel.

I have a hunch that the volcanic gasses will rise and dilute, so hopefully all we will get is an occasional rotten egg kind of smell. Nothing more for now un less it goes on and on... The thing with fissures is that they do this for months sometimes years, it is the build up when it starts circumnavigating the globe week after week that is dangerous. Carbon filters and associated air purifying systems for offices and such, will be a wise investment for people with the money to invest, just in case...A guess, we shall see. Make your own look on the net if you are worried. Personally I will wait till I see the evidence of such disruption. Seriously, I will wait. The overall Northern outlook, fissureing, normal in the grand scale of things, Picture received with heartfelt thanks to Iceland, thank God, they are a clever bunch of former Vikings. I hope there are no Large detonations like Krakatoa, the slow fissure and a Grímsvötn 2011 type blast is all I hope this will be. The fissure its self on the otherhand is North Atlantic Rifting, that is the odd ball here, It has waves of influence beyond current knowledge.. of us lot, all of us.

That is the one it will be callsign TIF-SIF, the pictures from that radar scan will be the ones they are interpreting now. I bet TIF-SIF is sent again. Seen on this by Icelanders the other day http://www.flightradar24.com/65,-19.1/6 the location has been set.

Thank you. I have been amazed by the quality of the footage we get these days, if Bada goes up I hope the weather plays ball so we can watch on the web cams and people near by can get good modern HD video. I am probably asking too much with the weather though aren't I Fissure still active 14;09 UK time The ring fault and caldera will have been measured with a ground scanning radar I think, they in Iceland will not guess at such important things as a 15m drop...I thaught I would add this as there appears to be speculation about the official announcement over the internet...Thats the way I see it anyhow. We await news... https://twitter.com/RUVfrettir/status/508241275737612288

I don,t fancy that, I expect smokers will be the first to suffer from coughing.... The caldera has dropped 15 m according to sources...https://twitter.com/RUVfrettir/status/508241275737612288 The potential for a serious eruption of Bada is now great, minimum of a VE 4 like Grims 2011 in my opinion, also that will be within the next few days if it happens, I suggest. Very serious is this 15m.

That is something quite significant regarding the chances of Bada erupting now Shell. Here is a fresh video of Grimsvotn Badas next door neighbor doing a VE 4 in 2011, the video is as the eruption is dying down would you believe...http://vimeo.com/104033763 Sorry about the music lol