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Frosty.

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Everything posted by Frosty.

  1. Frosty.
    It's important to mention the spell of nice anticyclonic weather that develops later next week before the arctic conditions arrive on the Gfs 6z.
  2. Frosty.
    Hi BA That isnt quite what I meant, with height rises to the NW and increasing scandi trough influence I would expect to read the words cold Northerly showery flow but what I read yesterday, reading between the lines was for a southerly tracking jet with a mix of mild and rather cold.
  3. Frosty.
    Let's hope there is at least a hint of that in today's MO update..would be welcome At least the latest GEFS has strengthened the scandi trough signal again.
  4. Frosty.
    I will say the extended GEFS 00z mean is increasingly bullish regarding scandi trough influence for the uk beyond the settled spell, more so than yesterday..so we could be in for a colder more unsettled period beyond the high.
  5. Frosty.
    The GEFS 00z mean shows high pressure gradually taking over from day 6, initially across the NW but then more widely as the high becomes centred over the north of the uk before slowly sinking south with largely fine conditions pretty much nationwide with variable clouds and sunny spells, increasingly frosty nights & fog, some of it freezing becoming more of a problem where skies clear and the frosty nights would lower the soil temps and the days would be crisp..very nice
  6. Frosty.
    Well it's better (colder) than the Gfs 12z , especially at the end..lovely cold eye candy!
  7. Frosty.
    Arctic air incoming on 18z..a happy ending!
  8. Frosty.
    The Gfs 18z is showing more snow showers on the way tomorrow across the west, mainly on hills and tomorrow night looks very frosty further north over the snow fields with further hill snow to come for Wales, the pennines and Scottish hills during the following few days which adds to the disruptive snow which occured this morning across parts of the northwest..and its still autumn!
  9. Frosty.
    I found some happy endings on the GEFS 12z with some real zingers and a few ever so close shaves to wintry nirvana! Coldies we are very much in the game!.. P11 where's Teits
  10. Frosty.
    I would take the Ecm 12z if it was offered to me, strong potential for an increasingly cold extended outlook with very cold air gathering to the north, north east & east
  11. Frosty.
    Agreed, there's no point having an Easterly unless there is cold air to tap into, eastern Europe needs an Arctic plunge for that to happen.
  12. Frosty.
    Agreed, the Gfs 12z op was disappointing compared to yesterday but we now wipe the slate clean and see what the next run shows.
  13. Frosty.
    It doesn't look as good to me as previously.
  14. Frosty.
    Still 12 days of autumn left after today, a few so so op runs is no cause for concern.
  15. Frosty.
    All I will say about todays Gfs 12z is I preferred yesterday's Gfs 12z.
  16. Frosty.
    The Gfs 12z ends with a dartboard low bringing severe gales and heavy rain, it doesn't have much in common with the majority of the run which is actually quite benign.
  17. Frosty.
    I should take back what I said about the models not showing anything mild. The Gfs 12z actually shows temperatures recovering to 11/13c across the south for most of next week.
  18. Frosty.
    It didn't yesterday, it pulled the trigger several times, yesterday's 12z showed a very cold loaded start to winter.
  19. Frosty.
    Fully agreed I would be more worried if the models were showing mild but happy to report they are not.
  20. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean continues to show growing scandi / euro trough influence with height rises to the w / nw with below average temps for the uk (cold cyclonic) with potential for much colder weather late Nov / early Dec onwards from a Nor'easter or Northerly..very interesting extended outlook watching it all hopefully come together.
  21. Frosty.
    No it's potential for upstream severe cold we are looking at, no guarantees but it looks much better than the same time last year when all the LRF's were doom and gloom mild mush which turned out to be spot on..it's a different and better situation this time with MLB likely to be followed by HLB.
  22. Frosty.
    Again it looks a very interesting trend from the Gfs 6z later this month into Dec if you are a coldie! Next week looks chilly too, very little in the way of mild on this run, hopefully the daffs won't be blooming in December like last year!
  23. Frosty.
    And yesterday's Gfs 12z sure was impressive..baby steps in the right direction!
  24. Frosty.
    I'm excited!major cold blast into eastern Europe, hopefully we can eventually tap into that if it happens.
  25. Frosty.
    The Gfs 00z is a chilly run, especially further north and shows next week's trough over the uk getting squeezed, filling and being replaced later next week by high pressure, especially further north and the mid range becomes benign and continues chilly with night frosts and fog but then later it becomes very unsettled from the NW with potential for an Arctic blast..early December could be wintry, it could even happen before that..The models are very interestingly poised.
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