Frosty.

The Ecm 00z shows increasingly low thicknesses from thursday through sunday with 524-528 dam so a cold spell is on the way from the NW with precipitation becoming more wintry during this period, especially for the north and high ground where snow is likely..and we would all see a return of frosts following the milder mon / tues, all this is a nice little bonus before the meteorological winter begins!

The Ecm 00z ens mean shows a mild spell early in the week with a mid atlantic airmass but by midweek its changing as lowering heights swing down from the NW with associated progressively cooler / colder polar air and its an unsettled trough dominated outlook with temps generally below average and rather cold at times, especially in the north. We will all see showers and longer spells of rain, it will be windy at times and over northern hills, expect snow at times, perhaps occasionally to lower levels in the far north and modest hills of the south could have a wintry mix. Nights look chilly with occasional frosts and some sharp frosts over highland snow fields.

Another feature of the Gfs 18z is that we were a gnat's whisker away from full blown arctic airmass and yet we still ended up with reloads of polar maritime so on future runs we could see the arctic floodgates open wide..plenty for coldies to be encouraged about, not only later next week but through the rest of November and beyond.

Plenty of polar air on the Gfs 18z with just short-lived milder interludes separating us from the next NWly cold shot, I would much rather have it this way than the mushy mild swly zephyrs!

Yes it does

All things considered, like the time of year for example with the meteorological winter still over 2 weeks away. Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks good from my cold point of view, especially the further north you are, it looks just as good as the 00z and last night's equivalent. There would be snow in the forecast, at least for northern hills..and frosty nights for most, especially sharp where there is snow cover..yeah its still November and some of us have already had snow!

Regarding later next week..Cold as in cold enough for snow on northern hills and perhaps to lower levels in the north, specifically scotland where 522-524 dam thicknesses are likely and I wouldn't rule out a wintry mix of ppn on modest hills in the south too..also cold enough for widespread frosts..it's still only mid November we are talking about so it's very acceptable to me.

The GEFS 12z mean looks good for a cold incursion towards and including next weekend, especially for scotland.

Agreed, there are some fascinating possibilities from a cold perspective.

The good news for coldies is we are going to have some form of cold outbreak later next week but duration and strength are still unclear with the Ecm 12z looking completely different in the day 9 / 10 timeframe compared to the 00z..more runs needed!

Actually, T+240 Ecm 12z looks much better going forward than the 00z

Yes it's a pity but at least we get a cold snap before that

Indeed, looks good! decent low thicknesses too, 524/526 dam

Gem & Ukmo 12z both look as though they would be cold next weekend with wintry showers, snow on hills and night frosts.

The Gfs 12z brings winter to Scotland! Ice days

Early next week looks mild according to the Gfs 12z with tuesday very mild indeed with 15c 59f so somewhere could top 60f on tues, the driest and brightest weather likely across the south.

It could still upgrade since it's still at least 5 days away and very much an evolving situation. The experts say it's likely to turn significantly colder later next week.

When I say potency, I mean more of a Northerly component / Arctic influence rather than just polar maritime, anyway I've shown them above, some are better than others in terms of duration and strength. Scotland would naturally be coldest with a NW / Nly airflow.

There is strong support from the GEFS 6z for a cold shot later next week with some ensembles wanting to prolong it into the following week by way of reloads and even increase the potency..

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean I'm seeing a cold outbreak later next week from the NW with showers turning to sleet and snow across northern hills and perhaps to some lower ground too, especially but not exclusively in the north together with night frosts and icy patches. Further ahead there is mid atlantic ridging and a trough either over the uk or just to the nw / n / ne with generally below average to rather cold temps across the uk and a continuing unsettled theme with rain and showers with an ongoing risk of snow on hills, mainly in the north..The 6z mean doesn't indicate any mild weather as such, apart from early next week.

Indeed, this is the GEFS 00z mean @ T+240..doesn't look mild at all, slightly below average in the south and cold for scotland in particular.

The Ecm 00z ens mean looks better than the op and more in line with last night's 12z op / mean..becoming colder later next week from the NW, indeed a cold outbreak is indicated with night frosts and wintry showers, and longer spells of rain / wintry ppn, even some snow, especially for the north and on hills.

The Gfs 18z shows the snow risk extending south during low res, nice charts for coldies! it's all about the trend and the trend is for a cold outbreak later next week which could last into the following week..another positive day / night of model watching!

it's always nice to see snow on the map and the Gfs 18z shows a risk of snow from next thursday across exposed parts of the northwest, we get a decent dig of Polar maritime later next week with some frosty nights, especially sharp over the upland parts of scotland which receive fresh snow.

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks increasingly chilly from the NW later next week with a cold outbreak indicated.