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Frosty.

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Everything posted by Frosty.

  1. Frosty.
    Not really, last November had quite a lot of polar maritime incursions, it's longer range into December which sounds more promising for coldies from the updates by Fergieweather with increasing signs of blocking from the longer range models like the CFS, EC32, GloSea5 etc.
  2. Frosty.
    The Gem 12z ends on an interesting note..increasingly blocked
  3. Frosty.
    I definitely see potential down the line.
  4. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z isn't as cold as the 00z from next midweek looking at the 850 upper profile.
  5. Frosty.
    I'm just pleased for now that we will have a generally NW / SE jet axis with regular incursions of polar maritime airmass and all being well this will be followed by height rises to the w / nw with lowering heights transferring to the NE..I must say, things are looking much better for coldies longer term than last year when we were faced with a rampant polar vortex throwing low after low our way for months on end.
  6. Frosty.
    The Gfs 12z op run shows fleeting mild interludes, generally associated with spells of wet and windy weather but it's mainly on the chilly side and feeling more like winter at times, particularly for scotland with reloads of polar maritime air from the northwest, especially later next week with night frosts and occasionally wintry showers with snow on northern hills, especially across the NW.
  7. Frosty.
    Looking ahead, the GEFS 6z perturbations show lots of encouragement for those of us who like it cold!
  8. Frosty.
    I agree, it's certainly not boring, coldies are definitely in the game according to the latest models and longer range CFS & EC32..GloSea5..Mogreps etc
  9. Frosty.
    It's a question of whether you trust the Gfs 6z more than the Ecm 00z..i don't ! P.S...thanks Siberian Xpress for your kind comments
  10. Frosty.
    NW / N
  11. Frosty.
    By the same token, this time last year there was no sign of any of the above looking further ahead which proved to be spot on so let's hope for firstly, a cold outbreak later next week as advertised by the Ecm 00z and then a cold Nly unstable flow by late Nov / early dec.
  12. Frosty.
    The Ecm 00z shows we are well on track for a cold plunge later next week, good continuity from the Ecm Some quite low thicknesses too with 520-522 dam! There would be some snow!
  13. Frosty.
    Interesting end to the 18z with trough disruption over the uk and the siberian / scandi high flexing its muscles!
  14. Frosty.
    I agree Fred, and the Gfs 18z is certainly blowing up the lows in low res but I think the models are now firming up on a polar maritime incursion later next week with more to follow.
  15. Frosty.
    It looks like the Gfs 18z is setting up cold reloads from the NW..nice
  16. Frosty.
    Polar maritime incursion incoming a week from now on the Gfs 18z with cold air spreading across northern uk with showers turning to snow across upland scotland with the colder air gradually spilling south.
  17. Frosty.
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a colder trend later next week from the NW with showers turning to snow on northern hills.
  18. Frosty.
    I even found a GEFS 12z perturbation with a Scandinavian high and cold air spreading across the uk..so, all sorts of possibilities which very much include polar / arctic maritime and easterlies too..potential is bubbling up nicely as we can almost sniff winter before us.
  19. Frosty.
    Tonight's Ecm 12z is even colder than the 00z post T+168 hours and I'm sure we would see some wintry precipitation from this..it's been another encouraging days models for those of us who love cold weather and its not finished yet, hopefully it won't be long before the south has snow too.
  20. Frosty.
    Yes Nick it was tragic and pathetic wasn't it..anyway, signs are good for plenty of cold air from the nw from later next week. And its not all doom and gloom before then either as we will see occasional frosts and even some freezing fog.
  21. Frosty.
    Indeed, not deep FI..just outside the reliable timeframe
  22. Frosty.
    Yes it's the perfect evolution from the Gfs 6z op if you are a coldie!
  23. Frosty.
    Arctic incoming, Iceland taking a pounding from snow showers and northerly gales..come to the uk meridional
  24. Frosty.
    This looks good from the Gfs 6z with reloading cold shots from the nw / n Further upstream looks promising too
  25. Frosty.
    Please say yes The models show a good chance of the jet tilting NW / SE from later next week, always good for coldies if lows are diving SE and the Ecm shows the PFJ digging south meaning the uk is on the cold side of the jet with Atlantic lows on a more southerly track so they bump into colder air which would produce a wintry mix with snow for some!..all good.
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