Frosty.

Indeed Gavin, looks much better now!

The Ecm is definitely king when it comes to scandi blocks..nuff said!

Looking through the GEFS 00z perturbations, P1 shows potential!

The Gfs 18z still looks great this weekend into early next week with the first of hopefully many arctic incursions, there then follows a flatter, milder blip but this is followed by further polar / arctic maritime as the jet axis sharply tilts nw / se with vigorous lows dive bombing the uk from the northwest.

Can't wait to see what the JMA 00z shows More of this please!

Indeed, more twists and turns are likely in the unreliable timeframe and we have our first arctic shot in the bag

It's far from a done deal Gavin, still lots of uncertainty beyond the increasingly cold weekend and cold first half of next week with confidence in the forecast currently low beyond next Wed. :- )

It certainly looks as though next week will be colder for longer compared to yesterday's output, hopefully this trend will be maintained / strengthened tomorrow. The Ecm is known as the top model and for most of the uk it shows cold air and at least cold surface conditions lasting through to T+240 and beyond!

Yes it's an Epic end to the JMA run, I'm sure Teits would love this chart too

Here they are..very impressive JMA 12z Karlos beat me to it, too many Karl's on netweather. lol

Well no sign of the milder atlantic making inroads across the bulk of the uk next week on the Ecm 12z, high pressure with crisp bright chilly days and frosty nights with an increasing risk of freezing fog, not a sniff of those south - westerly zephyrs

The Ecm 12z is looking increasingly cold from the north this weekend as we get our first taste of Arctic air and some quite low thicknesses by sunday and the cold weather continues through the first half of next week, especially across England and Wales so there would be widespread frosts and chilly days with a peppering of coastal showers, some wintry across the n & e before a large ridge of high pressure to the w / nw then slowly topples SE across the uk, still with frosty nights..certainly different to the 00z..colder and more blocked away from the far NW.

Just a quick mention about tonight, The Gfs 12z shows a slight air frost and there is even a risk of a few freezing fog patches forming across parts of the Midlands and south which takes us into a crisp bright morning, especially further south.

Agreed, there are some GEFS 12z perturbations which show the scandi ridge still influencing the uk next midweek (P4 for example) and holding the atlantic at bay with cold air still in situ, it's an uncertain period and there is no guarantee that milder air will make significant inroads at all next week, at least the first half looks chilly, it could continue on the cold side away from the far west / northwest.

Actually the ukmo 12z is a little less progressive than the Gem @T+144 hours, I think there is a lot of uncertainty looking through next week, certainly a cold start anyway!

Nice charts these from the Gfs 12z for early November especially northern europe, I could get used to this!

My point is its the first arctic incursion of the autumn and its being skipped over with barely a mention, some parts of the north will see snow and we will all have widespread frosts with icy patches..it's worthy of a mention.

I can see why there is so much interest in the potential longevity of the cold weather beyond next midweek via the Ecm op / para but we already have our first arctic shot in the bag for this weekend and first part of next week so there should be more focus on that in my opinion.

There is a lot of uncertainty beyond the cold weekend and first half of next week so the Ecm slider is possible to extend the cold throughout next week and beyond..far more interest for coldies and its not even winter for another month!

Looking closer at the GEFS 6z mean beyond the cold weekend and first half of next week. High pressure to the southwest becomes more influential so we would see an increase of fog and frost during the T+240 period but even so, there are a few perturbations showing cold shots from the nw / n and around mid month a greater chance of opening up the floodgates to Pm / Am incursions..so I don't think there will be a shortage of frosts this month and some of us could see wintry ppn at times, especially in the north and on high ground.

Judging by the GEFS 6z mean, it certainly will be cold, especially through this weekend and early next week. Further ahead its all about the ebb and flow of high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the north / northeast. I get the impression we could have some polar / arctic maritime outbreaks during the phases where the high pushes further west..it's a lot better potentially for coldies ( the majority) than the same time last year which had a mood of growing despair as winter 2015 / 16 loomed but this year I'm cautiously optimistic that we will have a winter this time around, and hopefully a very good one to make up for previous disappointments!

You hit the nail on the head, very good to see a cold outlook and tonight looks even colder than last night..I'm relishing the next 4/5 months!

plenty of early cold heading our way according to the Ecm 00z..BANK!

It's good that the mild on the Gfs 18z is out in FI and its mostly chilly before then but seeing mild in low res is nothing to be concerned about as its still only autumn and the gfs is famous for cranking up the atlantic and trying to go into default mode..time will tell.

Well the 18z wasn't dull, there is no mild for the next 10 days and then a mix of cold and mild.