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Frosty.

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Everything posted by Frosty.

  1. Frosty.
    Plenty of cold GEFS 6z perturbations, and there were others
  2. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean is a lot more bullish about a cold shot than the 00z was. These charts are encouraging for those of us who would like to see a polar / arctic maritime incursion during early november with height rises to the w /nw and a scandi trough..makes a nice change from the constant awful charts this time last year which continued through most of the winter!
  3. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z sets up an early wintry spell beyond T+240 with a locked in pattern..as I just said, some recent / current runs show great potential for long suffering coldies this time around.
  4. Frosty.
    There are a good number of GEFS 12z perturbations going cold for the early november period..could be very interesting, certainly much better potential for coldies than this time last year!
  5. Frosty.
    The GEFS 12z mean shows the high slowly retreating w / sw next week with lowering heights from the NE which indicate a colder and more unsettled trend from the N / NE later next week onwards.
  6. Frosty.
    The Gfs 12z shows colder and more unsettled weather arriving from the NW towards the end of next week with snow for the hills and mountains of Scotland..it's set up for reloads and an Arctic blast finally arrives, scotland becomes wintry and the way the run ends suggests more to come through November.
  7. Frosty.
    Well, no sign of a Northerly on the Gfs 12z into next week, indeed it still looks anticyclonic and unseasonably warm across the southern half of the uk..very pleasant, cooler air slowly filters south but it stays settled.. what a lovely early November this would be!
  8. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean shows there is plenty of support for what would be our first cold outbreak during early November with high pressure drifting out into the atlantic and a scandi trough (below is just a sample)..I think we are on track for a colder spell developing next week from the north with frosts becoming more widespread and even a risk of showers turning wintry, especially in the north and on hills / mountains where snow should be expected..more interestingly is the MO expect it to turn colder with a N / NWly airflow next week and even beyond!
  9. Frosty.
    The GEFS 00z mean shows an exceptionally pleasant outlook, initially across the south but then extending up across the rest of the uk as high pressure builds north with an air mass sourced from southern europe so it's goodbye cool Easterly and hello balmy warm Swly / Sly flow.
  10. Frosty.
    I thought there would be more comments about how unseasonably warm this week will become as we are almost at the end of october..it's going to become remarkably mild, especially across the south during the second half of this week..very pleasant indeed! Ecm 00z..
  11. Frosty.
    The main thing to notice this week on the Gfs 00z is how mild it will become once we lose the Ely flow off the north sea and winds swing SWly, especially further south from midweek until almost the middle of next week with temps of 17/18c under anticyclonic conditions across the south. The north turns milder too with spells of fine weather but with occasional fronts brushing across bringing some rain at times. Next week starts exceptionally mild in the south but it then becomes colder from the north.
  12. Frosty.
    Yes Gavin spot on, however, there is currently more support than not for our first shot of cold air from the nw, n or ne in early november.
  13. Frosty.
    By far this is the largest number of GEFS 12z perturbations showing varying degrees of cold heading our way both in terms of longevity and potency. We know that snow is possible in late october even in london since it occured in 2008 from an early Northerly so this coming weeks model watching will be even more interesting than it would normally be so early in the season.
  14. Frosty.
    I agree Phil, it's not that big of a deal at this time of year whether we tap into the early cold or not but the charts are interestingly poised and it could go either way..I also agree with BA.
  15. Frosty.
    The GEFS 12z mean still going with the high heading north-westwards towards Iceland / greenland with lowering heights to the NE which introduces a relatively much colder Nly / NNEly airflow down across the uk.
  16. Frosty.
    The Gem 12z is now going for retrogression of the high with a scandi trough which is a big upgrade compared to its 00z which showed very limited retrograde with the high remaining over the uk before sinking south allowing the atlantic to flow over the top..this run is much more in tune with the current trend..to cold.
  17. Frosty.
    As you would expect with the mean looking like this, there are an increasing number of chilly looking GEFS 6z perturbations in various timeframes in early november..could be a cold bonfire night this year!
  18. Frosty.
    I certainly hope the Gem is wrong, we know we can get snow in late october, even in London as we did in 2008.
  19. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean shows our high gradually drawn north-westwards from around T+ 144 /168 hours onwards and at the same time, a trough slipping down into Scandinavia which enables polar / arctic air to dig down across the uk turning our weather increasingly unsettled and colder..this looks very similar to the 00z mean so no downgrade. The mean doesn't tell you how potent the cold shot will be but it gives you a general idea of where our weather will be coming from in just over a weeks time and it looks like it will be from the north with high pressure building north in the atlantic and a robust looking scandi trough.
  20. Frosty.
    A note of caution for coldies from the Gem 00z, not enough retrogression means the high stays over the uk before sinking south and allowing the atlantic over the top.
  21. Frosty.
    The GEFS 00z mean is very bullish about retrogression and the scandi trough eventually becoming the main player..so I think we have taken a big step towards our first of hopefully many cold snaps / spells during the next 5 months with height rises to the NW and lowering heights to the NE...please make it so..i mean snow!
  22. Frosty.
    The Gfs 00z shows high pressure building north into the uk during the week ahead along with unseasonable warmth for the south of the uk with temps reaching 17/19c..very nice BUT..then..hello Arctic..Boom
  23. Frosty.
    This looks really good for coldies, I've been following the mean charts closely and tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean is a significant upgrade on the 00z in terms of a potential arctic shot beyond the anticyclonic spell.
  24. Frosty.
    Well the charts get better for coldies on the Ecm 12z with an increasingly cold spell as arctic air surges south across the uk with 528 dam thicknesses and set up for reloads beyond T+240. Hopefully a taste of things to come during the winter.. there would be snow for some and frosts for all.
  25. Frosty.
    As with the 6z, some of the Gefs 12z perturbations are sniffing arctic air during early november. Hopefully support will strengthen in the days ahead.
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