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Frosty.

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Everything posted by Frosty.

  1. Frosty.
    Very interesting Gfs 12z with reloads of colder Nwly winds before arctic air digs south, there is more snow potential and frost than the 6z op..I think it's a good time to be a coldie!
  2. Frosty.
    Looking further into November, the GEFS 6z perturbations show more potential for coldies with polar / arctic maritime outbreaks and a few other close shaves with something more wintry..it's interesting to note the MO update hasn't really changed and still indicates predominantly NWly / Nly airflow from around next midweek or thereabouts onwards through most of November actually with no sign of the usual flat mild zonality, indeed temps are currently expected to become below average for most of the month ahead!
  3. Frosty.
    Taking a snapshot at T+168 hours on the GEFS 6z mean / perturbations, one word, no actually two words spring to mind..benign / anticyclonic with nothing sinister lurking in the woodshed!
  4. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean looks anticyclonic for the most part throughout the next few weeks with very limited trough activity. Temperature wise, it's mild into early next week but then slowly trending cooler but nothing dramatic is indicated according to this..in fact, longer term the temps recover again from the south / southwest.
  5. Frosty.
    The Gfs 6z shows reload after reload of cold air from the northwest / north from next week onwards which for a coldie is very good to see.
  6. Frosty.
    Quite a benign settled looking Ecm 12z ens mean tonight with high pressure becoming the dominant feature through the coming days and very pleasant day time temps, especially in the south but nights on the cool side with mist and fog. High pressure slowly weakens next week and it gradually becomes cooler from the north but the mean makes less of the trough compared to the op and we remain under a weak ridge..nothing dramatic shown here, it looks quiet.
  7. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z becomes increasingly anticyclonic and warmer across southern uk during the days ahead but with overnight and morning fog, but outside the fog and in the sunshine it will feel very nice indeed, a bit cooler across the north and temperatures next week on the slide from the north and although a ridge holds through the first half of next week, pressure slowly falls thereafter as a trough swings down from the northwest over the uk. By T+240 we have a ridge looming to the west / northwest looking like it would topple SE beyond day 10 but a trough to the east and colder air spreading down across Scotland.
  8. Frosty.
    The GEFS 12z mean charts look peachy for fans of pleasant anticyclonic weather for around the next week or so before the high starts to drift west / southwest into the atlantic and weaken, we then see lowering heights from the NE coming into frame but the reliable looks about as nice as it could be at the end of october and start of november for most of the uk.
  9. Frosty.
    On reflection, exceptional was over egging the pudding but anyway, very pleasant for the time of year and unseasonably mild is probably a fair summary which applies to the southern half of the uk for the next week or so apart from overnight / morning fog.
  10. Frosty.
    It's noticeable that the models today are pushing back any possible cold shot so it's very FI range now and the next week or so at least looks very quiet away from the far nw / n and temps further south are going to be above average with 17/18/19c on some days..very pleasant indeed and I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in the s / se hits 20c or thereabouts which would be exceptional on the cusp of November.
  11. Frosty.
    P2 (GEFS 6z) is a perfect example of a reloading cold pattern from the northwest / north and there are quite a few other Gefs 6z perturbations to keep coldies in the hunt for our first wintry snap / spell during the first half of november with frosts, ice and wintry showers, even some snow, especially on northern hills.
  12. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean looks very quiet and settled across most of the uk until at least later next week with variable cloud but fog looks like being an increasing problem night and morning although it should clear to give pleasantly warm, bright or sunny afternoons..very respectable weather for late Oct / early Nov.
  13. Frosty.
    Indeed Gavin, it s a nice benign very mild to warm outlook from the Ecm 00z, not a sniff of anything cold, quite the opposite in fact!
  14. Frosty.
    Indian summer conditions from the Ecm 00z, really impressive charts from a warm perspective for so deep into autumn with 564 dam thicknesses encroaching on the south..and on the cusp of November! BBQ this weekend and early next week anyone?
  15. Frosty.
    Northern Europe goes into the freezer later on the Gfs 00z, the 18z was astonishing late on and so is this..and yes, just like the 18z the 00z shows some snow around in the first half of November.I will let these charts speak for themselves..dive bombing jet stream and all
  16. Frosty.
    A cold end to the Gfs 18z but most of the snow affected France and Germany but we also get some snow and at least we all got some frosty weather later in low res.
  17. Frosty.
    Even by next midweek the Gfs 18z still looks fine with above average temps further south. A humdinger indeed!
  18. Frosty.
    The Gfs 18z shows a pleasantly warm anticyclonic spell which lasts into early next week..really nice temps across the southern half of the uk, exceptional on the cusp of November!
  19. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z ens mean, just like the op shows very pleasant anticyclonic weather on the way with unseasonable warmth across the south of the uk with the peak occuring this weekend but then a gradual transition to colder Nly winds next week with pressure leaking away and height rises to the w / nw...our first cold shot will arrive from the north during next week if this verifies.
  20. Frosty.
    So..the Ecm 12z goes for summer like weather this weekend and first half of next week and ends with wintry weather on the way and completely skips autumn..and the clocks fall back this weekend. who said the British climate is boring
  21. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z goes for an Indian summer..BBQ time this weekend with summer like charts! And the warm benign conditions last through the first half of next week too..exceptional!
  22. Frosty.
    Further ahead, the GEFS 12z mean / perturbations show more arctic incursions..some stonking charts popping up which is so unlike this stage last autumn which was absolutely dire looking towards winter, but much more positive vibes this time..especially regarding the MO outlook for November which indicates winds predominantly from a NWly / Nly point.
  23. Frosty.
    More cold Gefs 12z perturbations..
  24. Frosty.
    Yes it looks very pleasant / benign..perfick
  25. Frosty.
    Confidence in the outlook from next tuesday is low but the expert view is still for a change to colder NWly / Nly winds with an increasing frost risk as well as breezy / showery conditions, especially in the n / ne and eventually cold enough for hill snow in the north which ties in with those Gefs 6z mean / perturbation charts I posted above and previous page. It appears as though once established, it could remain on the cold side or at least below average with winds predominantly between NW / N for a while which would suggest a reloading pattern with a nw / se aligned jet.
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