Frosty.

Ecm 00z ens mean is heading in the right direction

All I know is the models are a lot more interesting than last autumn at this stage..for the majority. I hope we see something like the Ecm 00z, fingers crossed!

It's nailed on to become fresher from the north by next midweek and cold, windy & showery across Scotland with the showers becoming wintry on high ground by tues / wed and slight frosts becoming more widespread for a time. The question is whether we will then see a second, stronger surge of cold from the NE or something milder as the Gem 00z shows..but coldies are in a better place than we were 12 months ago for sure!

It's worth pointing out the Gem 00z is rather milder than the Ecm 00z so nothing is in the bag but it's brilliant model watching, far more exciting than this stage last autumn which was run after run of Atlantic driven mild dross!

This is worth a Boom! What a cracking Ecm 00z..much better than the 12z

Beggars can't be choosers, I would take this Ecm 00z run anyday

T+216 is better still, dare I say..this is looking very good for coldies.

I'm liking where this Ecm run is heading.. I'm liking it even more now!

I'm liking where this Ecm run is heading..

Tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean shows next week starting mild and anticyclonic but that's ended on tuesday by a trough pushing east from iceland towards scandinavia with colder Nwly winds sweeping down across the uk behind a band of rain which is quickly followed by clearer / showery conditions which continues into midweek and with a risk that some of the showers would become wintry on the higher scottish hills and mountains, maybe the higher hills of northern england. The night's becoming colder too with slight frosts where skies clear but too much breeze for mist and fog to be an issue. Thereafter we see increasing trough influence with showers and longer spells of rain and temperatures at least a little below average. There is a good chance of colder shots from the north occurring too within the set up shown with a wintry mix of ppn, again especially on northern hills and more widespread frosts.

A much better end to the Ecm 12z than the 00z with cold air rushing south

The weather headline is already written for next week..becoming colder from the NW as the Ecm 12z shows with some frosty nights.

The GEFS 12z mean shows the first chilly NNWly incursion next tues / wed which is followed by a ridge which becomes a weak high pressure cell so some slight frosts on the way through the second half of next week. Thereafter pressure falls across the uk and to the n / ne, the high drifts away southwestwards with the uk in a rather cold run of polar air..so, just like the 6z mean, longer term, the 12z mean indicates a transition to below average to relatively cold temps with showers at times which would turn more wintry, especially in the north and on hills where snow could occur and frosts become generally more widespread too.

The Gfs 12z op run made for very nice viewing for a coldie with the first taste of chilly polar air next tues / wed followed by a brief frosty ridge and then even colder days and nights with quite a number of frosts and even a chance of some sleet and snow for some of us, especially on higher ground. Our weather comes in from the nw / n for most of the run with reloading pm / am outbreaks. Hopefully there will be more potent cold runs on the way. Even the end of the run hints at more cold air to swing SE beyond mid Nov and something unusually wintry could pop up..more runs of this type please

That would be a huge contrast to late autumn / early winter last last year which was a nightmare for coldies, fingers crossed! Anyway, one step at a time, the models show a gradual change next week to colder air from the north which is a good start. Ps.great to see GP posting, welcome back

Yes Ali it's the November trend which has got my interest and I'm sure all the coldies with temperatures expected to be below average for most of the time..I'm expecting plenty of cold eye candy charts in the days and weeks ahead.

Not according to the GEFS 6z mean, it looks like becoming progressively colder with ppn turning more wintry, especially on hills and night frosts becoming widespread out to mid Nov and beyond..poles apart from the mild atlantic driven dross this time last year.

The Ecm 00z ens mean also shows the high heading out towards mid atlantic with increasing scandi trough influence so I think as we go through next month we are looking at predominantly cold & showery NWly / Nly winds with the showers turning more wintry with snow on high ground and increasingly widespread night frosts as the GEFS 6z mean shows longer term out to mid November..even at this range, November looks like a below average month temperature wise which for coldies is much better than the usual mild wet and windy mush isn't it?

These GEFS 6z mean charts indicate to me an increasing chance of cold and showery NWly / Nly winds as time goes on with the high slowly retreating westwards towards mid atlantic..so more of a wintry flavour to our weather is currently favoured by the models again today.

There are plenty of wintry GEFS 6z perturbations to sink our teeth into this afternoon.

Well it looks like temperatures are heading below average from next mid week onwards with high pressure becoming situated generally to the west of the uk bringing a lot of settled and chilly weather with overnight frosts but with occasional low pressure swinging southeastwards from iceland with bands of rain interspersed with brighter and showery conditions at times, especially for the n / e and becoming cold enough for snow on northern high ground..sounds a lot better than the same time last year with a rampant polar vortex with mild, wet and windy weather for the uk. With the set up we are looking at there is potential for a much colder more wintry outbreak to arrive during November.

If you like benign, the models look fine.

The main question about next week, specifically later next week onwards is how much influence high pressure will have and ditto regarding the scandi trough's influence which will determine what kind of NWly / Nly flow we end up with..The Ecm 12z ens mean at least indicates relatively colder air will be spreading south after a mild anticyclonic start to next week.

Nice to see colder air feeding south next week on the Ecm 12z, trending colder then and a bit of fine tuning with the high to the west and trough to the east could make things even more interesting, plenty of time for that to be resolved!

The GEFS 12z shows perturbation support for cold snaps / spells next month..It's much more promising this autumn compared to last, let's hope it continues when winter arrives in a little over 4 weeks.