Frosty.

18z mild in low res looks short-lived with a brief arctic shot before it turns milder, chop and change low res with a much more mobile pattern.

Nothing mild about the Gfs 18z for the next 10 days. It looks below average and with a colder weekend and early next week..nice to see.

I'm going to enjoy these cold frosty nights and the colder weekend and first half of next week the models are showing and not concern myself beyond that. The Pv looks fairly weak, certainly compared to this time last year, long may that continue!

Speaking of cold weather, tonight brings the first widespread frost of the season..The first of many! I will drink to that Tomorrow night looks even colder..enjoy the crisp bright weather.

I wouldn't be concerned about how the Ecm 12z finishes, what's important is the 4/5 days of cold weather which comes before it which has more chance of verifying. We can't avoid at least short-lived milder interludes with the atlantic so close to us, besides, it doesn't matter at this stage, winter is still 4 weeks away..any cold wintry weather in november is a bonus, the icing on the cake so to speak!

Surface conditions would stay cold into midweek across England and Wales with widespread frosts where skies clear, proper November weather showing on the Ecm 12z. A 5 day cold spell..not bad huh

Some low thicknesses too, good job Ecm!

Thank you Ecm, the 12z shows an increasingly cold weekend and staying cold early next week..very nice

The Gfs 18z hardly has anything you could call mild and plenty of below average to rather cold temps. I just get the feeling with the amount of attempted cold reloads from the northwest that upstream there could be a major cold blast with our name on it.

Charts like these are just delightful from the Gfs 18z, especially knowing the timeframe involved is still 3 weeks away from the start of the new meteorological winter! I have a feeling coldies cups will runneth over during the next 5 months!

It's a win win for coldies, either we get atlantic lows sliding SE under the block as per the Ecm 12z operational or we have a nw / se jet axis with predominantly polar maritime occasionally veering towards the arctic as the gefs / ecm ens mean show.

I can't see anything mild on tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean I'm delighted to say!

The GEFS 12z mean has increased the longevity of the weekend cold spell to almost next midweek and even thereafter the winds are generally north of west ( rPm / Pm ) with very little or no indication of tropical maritime influence. So the next few weeks are currently looking generally unsettled with below average temps for the most part and occasionally cold with more arctic influence bringing widespread frosts and even some wintry ppn, with a risk of wet snow, especially on northern hills..later this weekend and particularly early next week look very chilly for example. There is also indications of some settled intervals where frost and freezing fog would occur..This November looks like its going to be kinder to coldies than recent years!

Well isn't it nice to see the atlantic hitting a brick wall! These Ecm 12z charts would be most welcome indeed!

524 dam would be mighty impressive, especially considering how warm autumn has been so far, particularly September. I would of course like a prolonged cold spell with 510 dam but I think I will have to wait until winter for that.

The Ecm 12z shows an increasingly cold unsettled weekend with 528 dam, windy on saturday but the isobars open out a little by sunday but still a very chilly feel..certainly when you consider west Wales reached an amazing 22c 72f today. Next Monday looks with 524 dam across the SE!

Speaking of mild, realistically I don't see anything more than short-lived milder interludes during the next 2 to hopefully 4 weeks with winds generally from north of west drawing mostly rPm or Pm and occasionally Am air down across the uk.

These temperatures from the Gfs 12z will be a shock to the system when you add on the windchill factor, well below average with increasingly frosty nights and even before then the uk will see its first widespread frost of the season on wednesday morning...The first of hopefully many, many, many!

Agreed but the models are showing a cold end to the week which looks nailed on. Baby steps.

As long as the models keep showing colder than average, I will be happy.

Benign? The GEFS mean suggests unsettled and quite windy at times with a wnw / ese aligned jet. The outlook doesn't look gentle and kind to me

Well I don't see any downgrades in the GEFS mean since yesterday, the 00z shows the flow generally north of west with a nw / se aligned jet with regular polar maritime influence and occasionally sharper with more of an Arctic flow and the coming weekend and start of next week look increasingly cold from the n / ne as arctic air is drawn south across the uk. I see wintry potential in the next few weeks, especially in the north and on high ground.

The Ecm 00z shows increasingly cold weather spreading south during the weekend and into the start of next week. Nice Chin up coldies, winter is still a month away

The GEFS 12z mean shows an unsettled outlook and temps generally below average with indications of Pm / Am incursions at times as high pressure builds north in the atlantic and a nice trough alignment to the NE..so, winds generally from north of west but next weekend into the start of week 2 they veer Nly / NEly and towards mid Nov there are signs of further arctic maritime incursions.

The cfs was showing mild recently so let's hope it stays cold I'm not seeing anything mild as such after tomorrow really..and plenty of cold.