Frosty.

Well if we get high pressure building north in mid atlantic we would be in for Arctic maritime which would be great at the start of winter with more chance of troughs swinging south and not 1 day topplers!

Nice to see the jet digging south on the Ecm 00z with increasing cold potential for the uk.

Lovely charts from the Gfs 00z with reloading cold shots from the nw / n

Charts from the 18z which would scream wintry potential for the uk with a bit of fine tuning..coldies can expect plenty to encourage us in the weeks ahead.

The Gfs 18z shows cold incursions from both polar and Arctic..not bad!

It hasn't happened yet..so it's not spot on

We are still in a better place than this time last year with at least polar maritime incursions likely during the next few weeks as the models show the jet alignment becoming wnw / ese and possibly nw / se by late next week onwards..no need for any coldie to be downbeat on the 9th November

Except winter is still 3 weeks away and the current models certainly don't show constant mild, it looks quite variable with some colder shots for sure.

Luckily it's still early november..although it currently feels like winter in the north The models indicate cooler / colder incursions from the w / nw at times during the next few weeks as well as mild..beyond that its very uncertain.

The GEFS 12z mean shows a change to much milder and more settled conditions for a time early next week, especially for the south of the uk as high pressure builds in close to the south with a feed of tropical maritime air flowing around it and across the uk with temps into the low teens celsius but it doesn't last and from midweek it becomes cooler and more unsettled from the W / NW. From then the atlantic cranks up with depressions zipping in with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with colder, brighter more showery interludes with the most unsettled weather across the n / nw of the uk and the best of any fine weather further s / se.

Superb update as usual Tamara The Ecm 12z shows a narrow wedge of milder air on saturday associated with a band of wet and breezy / windy weather but cooler again by sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds NE and then early next week turns much milder and also briefly more settled for the south before it becomes cooler and more unsettled from the west / northwest during the second half of next week onwards as a trough swings SE from iceland with a cold and showery wnwly flow to end the run.

The Gfs 12z shows a very wet saturday and windy too with a narrow wedge of milder air slowly spreading from the west but by sunday it's drier, brighter and cooler with a few showers dotted around. Then early next week as high pressure builds in close to the south we see a more settled few days for the south and very mild air swamps the uk but it doesn't last as a polar maritime incursion spreads SE next midweek, especially for scotland with showers turning to snow on high ground. Thereafter it stays rather chilly for a few days with NWly winds but the atlantic really cranks up through low res with some vigorous depressions swinging across the uk bringing mild, wet and windy weather followed by a backwash of colder, brighter showery conditions with wintry ppn on northern hills..so a more active spell could be on the way with large temperature fluctuations from 13/14c on some days and 5/7c on others with night frosts at times.

Maybe we need GP to launch another torpedo The models look promising in the medium / longer range for a nw / se aligned jet with Pm / Am incursions and hopefully with some longevity too.

The GEFS 6z perturbations are a mixed bag of mild, cold and in between but these are my cherry pick of the colder ones!

The GEFS 6z mean shows a milder day on saturday but it probably won't feel that mild if you are stuck under a slow moving rain band across the east but once that's cleared out into the north sea, it becomes brighter / cooler from the west, however, the Azores high then ridges NE across the south of the uk introducing mild air once again which lasts a few days and brings some respite from the unsettled weather across the south. Further ahead we see an increasingly trough dominated outlook with cooler air from the north Atlantic and occasional polar maritime influence but later, the south becomes more benign with overnight frost and fog but it stays more unsettled further north.

Agreed, the Ecm 00z ens mean shows polar air so it wouldn't be mild and if the trough keeps pushing east it would veer the flow towards arctic maritime, in fact this chart shows the air originating in the arctic and just modified slightly be the atlantic influence.

A bit of sleet but the bigger picture on the Gfs 18z is full of potential for coldies with a bit of tinkering.

A truly wintry night is unfolding on the Gfs 18z with several inches of snow on higher ground of northern england and Scotland, and even some snow to lower ground too, snow will be heavy in places and tomorrow the snow only slowly peters out but it's a thoroughly cold day across the north and especially parts of scotland, amazing for early November and hopefully a sign of things to come when north, south, east and west will join in the snowy fun!

The Ecm 12z indicates sunshine and showers on thursday followed by a spell of rain slowly pushing in from the west during friday into saturday but the Azores high ridges into the uk during the weekend which continues into early next week with a few days of more settled weather, especially across the south although not completely dry as a band of showery rain pushes southeastwards on Monday but the main feature is it's turning much milder for a time..but lowering heights from the NW during next week pushes cooler / fresher and increasingly unsettled weather down across the uk.

The GEFS 12z mean shows the Azores high ridging towards the uk during the weekend and more especially early next week which results in mild air flooding in across the uk but also a few days of largely fine weather for the south but as we go through next week, the Az high retreats as a trough swings down towards the uk from the NW which leads to a generally unsettled mobile extended outlook with temps close to average.

I agree there was some polar maritime mixed with lots of mild mush but nothing like the snow tonight which parts of the uk are going to receive.

Agreed Phil, it doesn't look like the milder / more average spell will last too long and I'm very excited about the colder / blocked signal being mentioned by the experts, there wasn't even a hint of it last year with such a raging PV so it could / should mean a completely different december to last year which would be a huge relief to coldies like me.

I'm a cold ramper too but after the current cold is over it looks like a return to more average conditions with some milder / cooler phases with the most unsettled weather across the NW and the least unsettled further SE.

It looks like we are in for a westerly burst according to the ens mean and met office update but the majority of unsettled weather probably reserved for the northwest of the uk with the south / southeast having longer fine spells but with occasional changeable / unsettled phases and temperatures recovering, even mild at times during the next few weeks.

The GEFS 6z mean shows the Azores high ridging in by the end of this week and early next week introducing milder air across the uk and more settled conditions for the south of the uk for a time but further ahead it becomes more unsettled / trough dominated from the northwest which continues into late november with temperatures generally around average.