Frosty.

It's good news that the HLB is delayed, gives us more chance of potent wintry weather when it matters, in winter. I can't see any downgrades in the models or the MO updates either..patience grasshopper! the fantastic updates from SM, GP and Tamara, to name but a few, are also very encouraging.

All roads lead to cold..hopefully! Another very encouraging run for coldies from the Gfs 18z with arctic air & snow featuring, especially towards the end with cold reload potential from the nw / n.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows plenty of chilly weather in the coming days with sunshine and showers, some heavy with hail & thunder and cold enough for sleet and wet snow on hills but on some lower ground too in the heavier showers and nights look cold with frosts where skies clear. It becomes very unsettled for most of the uk this weekend with wet and windy weather and a chance of hill snow on the northern edge and back edge. Into next week it starts chilly with showers but the trough over the uk gets squeezed, gradually fills and is replaced by an area of high pressure by day 6/7 which becomes centred over the uk with variable cloud and sunny spells but with cold frosty nights with fog forming, some of it dense and freezing which would also be slow to clear.

I couldn't agree more, the Gfs 12z later in low res is my idea of wintry heaven, and it has some support from the GEFS 12z.

It's what most of us are hoping for but not necessarily expecting but there are signs of retrogression again today on the GEFS 00z / 6z / 12z and potentially the 18z too. My hope is the support will eventually become overwhelming for height rises to the nw, a mid atlantic ridge or better still, a mid atlantic high building north and linking up with the Greenland high and at the same time, the formation of a robust scandi trough..not asking for much am I!

Just for fun I wanted to see how much support there was from the GEFS 12z for the stonking 12z op for a proper start to winter..I found plenty

Me too, especially the last part.

Frost and fog at night which would help to lower the soil temperatures and make it easier for snow to settle when the opportunity knocks..

The GEFS mean continues to indicate height rises to the nw, mid atlantic ridging and expanding scandi trough later this month and into early winter, it's the opposite of our typical mild zonality from the 12z and many runs before it. I really see potential for a significant cold outbreak perhaps similar to the way the stunning op run ended to banish the memories of the mild hell that was last December! At the very least it looks below average to rather cold and cyclonic turn of the month with wintry ppn and night frosts with a risk of freezing fog.

The Gfs 12z low res turns into wintry heaven / hell depending on what side of the fence you are on..from where I'm sat it looks glorious!

Reading between the lines, there is no change to the medium / longer range outlook with height rises expected to the north which would make northern uk drier and cold with night frosts and fog but with southerly tracking atlantic lows heading for central and especially southern uk with wind and rain but also a wintry mix with elevation bringing a risk of sleet and wet snow but also some dry and colder phases with frost and fog which eventually becomes the main weather type across the uk so it's a big change from this time last year in the run up to winter when we had a powerful northern arm of the jet with a monster pv but now looks much weaker and instead more energy pumped into the southern arm making for some wintry interest at times with the PFJ pushed further south.

For the last few days the GEFS mean has been showing below average / rather cold and blocked conditions during late Nov / early Dec and the 6z is no different with a weak mid atlantic ridge and an expanding scandi trough. There would be potential for a noteworthy cold outbreak during this period with no sign of mild atlantic zonality..it looks chilly later this month, cold cyclonic.

Very interesting Gfs 6z charts these, ok it didn't follow through on its promise this time but at least it shows we (coldies) are very much in the game in the run up to winter!

The GEFS 00z mean indicates below average temps and has a blocked look to it late Nov / early Dec, there is potential for a cold / very cold outbreak during this period with height rises to the w / nw and a scandi trough..The mean has been showing this for a few days now.

With charts like this from the Gfs 18z, there is hope that we in the .uk will strike cold gold later this month and into December.

Give it chance, it's only November 16th At least the models look seasonal with a mix of mild, average and cold with the cold on balance having the upper hand, at least across northern uk.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes quite benign as time goes on with pressure rising across the uk with an increasing risk of fog and frost.

There is wintry potential from the GEFS 12z with some near misses and direct hits..here is my cherry pick

I agree Fred, the models have a much more seasonal flavour going forward.

Agreed, and as for mixed signals which has been mentioned a few times today, well, at least we are looking at a level playing field between mild, average and cold..too often it's only mild mush on the menu but the models are not showing that..and hopefully that will remain the case! I would love a strong start to winter to make up for the dross that was served up last december.

The GEFS mean has been rock solid in supporting a colder blocked late Nov / early Dec so that's a reason for coldies to be cheerful looking ahead!

The GEFS 12z mean continues to indicate below average temperatures in the extended range with height rises to the w / nw and a scandi trough with scope there for a wintry spell during late Nov / early Dec.

There's nothing mild on the extended GEFS 6z mean, temperatures look below average across the board and cold across scotland. Scandi trough develops, heights rise to the w / nw and there is scope for something wintry by late Nov / early Dec with no sign of the usual mild zonality.

Definitely a wintry flavour from the Gfs 6z up to and including the weekend, especially for scotland which shows proper cold and a risk of snow showers and then a threat of more persistent snow this weekend across northern high ground although it should be stressed, a lot of rain for low ground across the uk, nights look generally cold during the next 2/3 days and frosts look widespread and there is even a risk of sleet / snow showers reaching the south for a time, especially on hills and over the snow fields in the north, frosts look severe..it's another early taste of winter for the north of the uk at least.

A huge sigh of relief The models show a much more even playing field between cold, average and mild, something I'm grateful for.