Frosty.

Yes zakos, the ECM 00z ens mean looks more progressive from the w / nw whilst the operational looks completely different.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean certainly does

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the atlantic influence increasing through the run with trough, ridge, trough etc as the Azores high and lower heights to the nw / n ebb and flow with a wnw / ese aligned jet taking shape.

Full of potential for what? all I see is a grotty looking trough over the uk followed by a nice high

A very pleasant end to the Ecm 00z with high pressure in control

Further into low res on the Gfs 18z we are looking to the northwest for our weather as it shows increasingly polar maritime influence with showers turning wintry on northern hills and a return of night frosts with daytime temps dipping below average.

Well it's looking chilly for most of the week ahead according to the Gfs 18z with maxima of 6/7/8c and overnight frosts but slowly temperatures creeping up across the southwest and then south, but only to 9/10/11c and there is also some unsettled weather at times too.

The Ecm 12z ens mean goes with a changeable generally nw / se aligned jet with ebb and flow of the Azores / atlantic high vs lower heights to the northwest / north after the current northerly expires.

New EC32 is tuesday I understand.

I agree with what you say, the bigger picture is poles apart from last year at this time and the last I heard, GloSea5 still sounds encouraging for coldies later in Nov into december but I was just reporting on the latest operational output which trended flatter and milder in particular the Gem 12z which had a positive NAO look about it with strengthening Azores high and icelandic lows..it just went a bit flat / meh later.

No I'm serious, the Ecm 00z had a wow factor later in the run with its screaming northerly but that's been drop kicked and the Gem becomes mild, and the Ecm trends milder later.

I don't see anything to get excited about from the latest models, it's rather chilly but with a milder trend later.

The Ecm 12z shows pressure rising nicely towards the end of the run and still with rather cold surface conditions with overnight frosts with the exception of the far northwest which looks a little milder. It's nothing like the amplified 00z and the run ends milder but the week ahead would be rather chilly, especially in the east with sunshine and a few showers with overnight frosts.

The Gem 12z starts cold but then becomes milder at times and ends mild. There are spells of wind and rain separated by drier brighter intervals and the worst of the weather is further north, furthest away from the area of high pressure to the southwest of the uk. T+240 has a positive NAO look about it.

We can still dream can't we

Isn't it great that the models are only indicating short-lived milder interludes and more in the way of cold / below average temps..such a pleasant change from the usual mild dominance!

I agree about the gfs, over the snow fields in the highlands will drop to at least minus 10 celsius 14F.

Monday night / Tuesday am does look the frostiest according to the Gfs 6z..I love frost obviously

The Met office look 4 weeks + ahead so 10 days is nothing..anyway, the models have improved since the 00z in terms of cold potential longer term and of course the incoming cold this weekend and early next week which I shall enjoy.

Looking further ahead, there is plenty of cold possibilities from the GEFS 12z perturbations ...The control run ending is peachy

Quite a big difference between the Ecm 00z / 12z @ T+240 hours

The Ecm 12z shows an increasingly cold weekend coming up, and not just cold but also showery and some of those showers turning wintry and with night frosts .. hooray And the cold air persists on mon / tues especially further east and even beyond that it stays chilly until a brief change to milder on Friday which is quickly chased away SE by colder NWly winds which lasts through the end of next week..The mild intrusion is blink or miss it! Quite a disturbed end to the run with a nw / se aligned jet which would mean polar / arctic air at times

It's going to be a cold bonfire night whether you have it tomorrow or Sunday according to the Gfs 12z. Usually they are mild and mushy so this year will make a pleasant change!

The Gfs 12z eventually shows temperatures recovering well, especially across the south of the uk from next friday and the end of next week into the following week and also becoming more settled for a time as high pressure ridges in from the southwest with temps up to 14/15c but staying more changeable / unsettled further north with temps closer to average. Later in the run becomes progressively colder and more unsettled from the northwest with even some sleet and snow across high ground further north / west.

Yes Gavin it looks like we are going to see a strengthening of the Icelandic low (s) and the Azores high in the run up to and including mid month leading to a broadly westerly flow but then hopefully the GloSea5 blocking will show itself in the model output later in the month and take us into a potentially colder December, I have to say, given how ridiculously warm and wet last December was and given the expected background signals, I would at the very least expect something resembling early winter.!