Frosty.

I just checked the Gem 00z and its very similar to the Ecm 00z & Gfs 6z in the 9/10 day range with high pressure building in from the southwest across southern uk bringing fine and pleasantly mild conditions.

The GEFS 6z mean shows our incoming colder spell giving way to more of a milder atlantic regime from around next midweek onwards and its then all about the ebb and flow of the Azores high and low pressure to the northwest / north. The Azores ridge builds in at times but it's mainly beneficial to the south of the uk, so some fine pleasant conditions further south although still changeable but it's the north which is more exposed to the most unsettled conditions generally. From mid month there is a shift to more widespread unsettled weather from the northwest with an atlantic ridge developing so the second half of November shows potential for increasing polar / arctic maritime incursions.

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Give me GloSea5 over the cfs v2 any day!

Just to show I'm not just a member of the snow and cold rampers association, the Ecm 00z looks quite pleasant later in the run, at least across the south of the uk as high pressure builds in from the southwest along with tropical maritime air.

I don't know if anyone has shown the Ecm 00z for this weekend and early next week so here goes, some nice shades of blue!

Absolutely Ravelin, in the meantime I'm going to enjoy the northerly chill the models are showing, nothing can stop that!

This is true, the outlook beyond the cold spell is uncertain..+ its only the 00z, there is a full day of twists and turns ahead of us.

Fully agree, however, in my experience the models could improve through today and by 12z coldies will be happier.

If the models keep trending colder, I will enjoy the ride.

I'm sure it was a tongue in cheek comment, as for the latest models, there are encouraging signs that the upcoming cold will not be brushed aside next week as earlier runs suggested. Hope tomorrow brings more good news.

Indeed, progressively less progressive as far as the atlantic is concerned, fingers crossed for further upgrades to the longevity of cold on tomorrow's runs!

Yes it's something I alluded to above regarding the change in the Ecm 12z ensemble mean compared to the 00z earlier, hope it keeps changing for the better / colder!

To my untrained eyes the Ecm 12z ens mean isn't looking as progressive as earlier, certainly not as far as the Azores ridge is concerned which looks more suppressed..I think it's backtracking towards what the 12z op shows..which is very good news in terms of extending the cold!..baby steps in the right direction and hopefully the 00z will continue the backtrack!

The GEFS 12z mean looks interesting for coldies during the second half of November with indications of further Arctic outbreaks.

I understand GloSea5 is indicating increasingly blocked conditions later in Nov and wouldn't it be amazing if we had another 2010 Nov / Dec freeze!

Yes Pete it's looking more wintry than anything we saw last November and December for that matter..bog standard indeed

Cold all next week according to the Ecm 12z with widespread frosts and crisp days, even some wintry showers in the east..and its still autumn No mild!

Wow this is impressive from the Ecm 12z...wot atlantic breakdown!.. look east Next week looks colddd

I must say the Scandinavian cold looks impressive

Actually the Ecm 00z operational ties in more with the experts latest thoughts with colder & drier conditions more likely to continue further east / south-east than the atlantic mobility shown on the GEFS mean beyond next midweek..The Ecm is actually more bullish about cold weather persisting across the whole of the uk compared to the MO which is more of a halfway house with slightly milder air making it into the w / nw.

Yes Barry the Ecm operational looks great, we just want to see a flip back to colder from the ensembles, especially the GEFS..when I say we I just mean my fellow coldies

The GEFS 6z mean shows a trend to milder (more average) beyond next midweek with ebb and flow of the Azores high vs lower heights to the nw / n / ne and for a while the Az High (ridging) has the best of it although it still looks changeable with the most unsettled weather across the north and the best of the fine weather further s / sw but later the high is forced further southwest and it's low pressure to the northwest which takes over and slowly pushes eastwards with an increasing chance of polar / arctic maritime incursions beyond mid month.

That is certainly what the GEFS 00z mean indicates with ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the nw / n / ne.

It's not often we see charts as good as this so early in November but the Ecm 00z keeps the dream alive that the cold spell will be extended! GEFS 00z P1 agrees!