Frosty.

I wondered how there could be 7 pages already, now I know why

I like the sound of an Omega pattern, I also like the latest meto update which is going with a cold SE'ly to E'ly flow with frost/fog but they don't think it will last too long before milder air wins, hopefully that will change in the coming days and we finally get a cold wintry spell worth remembering!

Thanks chris I think we really are in for a cold spell, not sure of the magnitude or duration yet but from past memory, all the good cold spells start in a similar way with hp building through the uk and heading towards scandi, and we will have plenty of very cold air to tap into when the time comes...lets just sit back and watch the drama unfold

I'm not concerned about that, a cold spell is coming....I have been trawling through various weather sites and they are of the opinion we are in for a wintry spell with Ely winds, a risk of snow flurries, freezing fog and widespread sharp frosts by the week after next and the models are shaping up nicely.

Excellent read there Mr H :excl: Very interesting developments ahead once the high builds, good to see the number of mild ensembles diminishing and good to see the 06z upgrading from yesterday and the best news of all is the changes are now creeping into the reliable timeframe.

Nice to see we can still get charts like the one Steve posted in the even larger teapot although it's still very much a fantasy chart. After some hic-ups yesterday I don't think we are really any better or worse positioned than we were compared with the 00z runs yesterday. The atlantic is going to run out of energy later next week and we are going to have an Anticyclonic spell with probable cold but very dry air off an increasingly bitter continent but hoar frost is unlikely and neither is fog with the dryness of the airmass, I fully expect more set backs because everything has to click perfectly into place for the uk to get a cold spell, unlike mainland europe and the usa where it's much easier.

I think expectations are getting too high which just makes the current output seem even worse than it actually is. We should be happy there is an end in sight to all the heavy rain and floods with a quiet and chilly spell setting in later next week with some frosts and fog. Nobody and no computer model yet knows where the high will end up and how it will impact on the uk. Edit..although I think GP knows whats going on with the background signals and the bigger picture, we might just have to wait a bit longer for the beasterly. :lol:

That's what the meto currently think although it could all change by tomorrow, it's an evolving pattern. Thankfully the unsettled weather will end by next friday with a fine Anticyclonic spell for everyone and there will probably be plenty of frost and freezing fog for several days, if the atlantic does then make inroads, there could be a spell of snow before it turns milder but that's a long way off.

LOL Steve On a more serious note, I don't think anyone could realistically expect every model run to show winter wonderland charts, I think it's best to expect nothing in the uk and then be pleasantly surprised if the models do change back in our favour at short notice, which still might happen as the models don't know yet where the high will end up, they are simply guessing at this range.

I don't think the uk could cope with what central europe is going to get, the models seem to be losing ensemble support for a bitter blast reaching the uk, at least it will save our lousy government some money.

If only the weather would listen to what we want but we might have to settle for the scraps from the table while central & eastern europe have a major freeze up. At least we should get something colder and more seasonal feeling and there is an outside chance of something more potent.

I'm inclined to agree that something is brewing from mid month onwards but it could just be a near miss for the uk although mainland europe looks set for a freeze up. I still think we will get a settled spell from next weekend onwards with frosty nights and some freezing fog, anything more than that will be a nice bonus.

It wouldn't be a surprise if we did miss the boat but the signs are still good for a slow cooldown after the milder weather which may then accelarate towards a significant or mega cold spell after mid month. It seems that by next weekend the unsettled weather will be gone with high pressure taking charge but then it depends how the hp orientates and whether we can tap into a colder continental flow and even if we can't, there should be some faux cold to enjoy.

Very promising models this morning, a massive upgrade on the 00z runs yesterday. The models are in good agreement that the atlantic low pressure conveyor belt will run out of steam just after midweek with high pressure building strongly to the east, we will then lose the mild temps as we pick up a continental feed by the end of next week with frosty nights and temps by day struggling to reach much more than 3-5c and lower than that in some areas. Watching that deep cold wintry trough to the far northeast spilling it's bitterly cold air sw'wards towards the uk is fantastic to see although on this mornings runs we don't seem to feel the full force of it but the trend is key, I seriously thought the charts might have imploded overnight but we appear to be on track for a potentially very cold and possibly very wintry spell which is tantalizingly close to the reliable timeframe.

I got a bit carried away I'm very pleased with the overall trend though which could gather momentum..that's what i'm hoping anyway.

All the disappointments of previous cold spell failures will evaporate if this comes off, I think it's very good and positive news when we have the comments from GP added to the mega wintry charts, maybe fantasy will become reality in less than two weeks.

An excellent read there GP

Amazingly, the potential evolution of a monster cold spell is only a week away and the next few days will be a major test of the models credibility, the ECM 12z T+240 chart has stunning potential and the GFS 12z is simply awesome and would surely give the uk it's most wintry spell for several years, it's good that these stonking charts are not just buried deep in FI as they could be dismissed as nonsense but I just have this horrible feeling that it could all implode by tomorrow or sunday because we have seen huge potential evaporate before many times.

I think the ukmo T+144 hour verification record is very poor and what the models have shown today is that things are wide open for significant changes once the high builds, the 6z parallel run was not just a one off fluke as we are seeing now with the gfs 12z op run, very intriguing times ahead but because it's the uk the most realistic outcome will probably be a near miss but i'm hoping for something severe like most on here. :lol: :lol: bring on the blizzzzzzards and pipe busting frosts.

Nice to see a post which is model related. A great read there SM. I noticed the meto update is not enthusiastic about high pressure taking control, it only looks like a partial temporary victory with the unsettled weather taking control again in the days leading up to christmas, fingers crossed we see something wintry soon.

Yes there is.....and as others have already said, the 6z parallel run is a bit cold

Thanks, that cheered me up It's just a case of wait and see, there is growing support now for a settled spell beginning in around a week or so from the south but the big question will be where will the high go then, how will it orientate, will it sink etc. the 6z op run is thoroughly depressing but I realise there are colder solutions, will we be lucky enough to get one of them though.

I admire your optimism but the only trend I can see at the moment is for average or mild.

The 06z is a huge disappointment, we have another week of very unsettled weather and next week looks much milder than this week with temps between 11-13c most days, then we have high pressure building northeast through the uk with fine weather and temperatures returning to where they should be at around 7-8c 45f. There is no sign, no hint of anything wintry on the 6z run, even the 00z showed potential at the end but the 6z is a poor run from a wintry perspective although at least it shows an end in sight to the flooding problems, that is the only good news from this run.

Thanks for saving me the bother of looking then. I missed the 18z run but understand it was a good one for coldies, how often does the following run bring things down crashing and burning.