Frosty.

Hopefully it will happen again around the same time, looks pretty mild and unsettled until then. I've seen enough of the models today..back for another round of model torture faux cold snap chasing tomorrow.

Good idea, the models look pretty desperate for the next week at least and maybe much longer.

I seem to remember we had similar faux cold last christmas as high pressure built north from france, maybe a repeat of that is likely to occur, the models have dramatically downgraded any prospect of true wintry synoptics this side of christmas but maybe something surprising will happen hopefully, the usual british winter pastime of chasing phantom cold snaps has now commenced.

Because in my view it seems a logical progression that the very unsettled weather will eventually become restricted to the north & west as high pressure builds up from france and buckles the jet as the gfs has shown on all 3 runs today so far, and now the ecm has picked up on it, I realise it's well into FI but the chances of it happening are much higher than anything cold from the east or north IMO. The only alternative is the ecm 00z solution which remained unsettled everywhere with no hp influence.

Indeed, hats off to the gfs for spotting the pressure rise from the south first! the ecm now backing towards the gfs by T+216 to 240 hours, I must say, at that range with only 12 days to christmas, I can't see how any northerly or easterly would develop in time from such a bland set up, so we might have to make do with faux cold instead, better than no cold I suppose.

Once again the GFS shows pressure rising from the south later next week which would bring drier, brighter weather to most of the uk except the far north & west which would probably remain unsettled. This rise of pressure next week was not commented on in the meto update today but the gfs keeps showing it. I wonder if the ecm 12z will show it this evening, the gfs further on becomes very messy and there are cold possibilities but all I can see is low pressure domination, especially in northern and western areas with the cold air too far north and east of the uk to be of much interest.

The meto update has dismissed the 6z output, staying unsettled until 17th December with temps up and down a bit, milder for the south for a while next week but then temps returning to near average with a risk of snow over the hills in central & northern britain, i'm a bit surprised, given their mention yesterday of more settled conditions later in the period which is what the gfs 00z-06z are showing today, they must favour the latest ecm 00z output which is unsettled throughout.

Is this the first winter is over post?

You never know what you are going to get with the gfs from one run to the next, a bit like pulling the lever on a slot machine, it's pot luck. The 6z is ok, a cold high would be very welcome with some decent frosts to kill off the bugs going around.

A fair attempt by the GFS 00z to give the coldies something to smile about this morning, a large anticyclone building to the northeast in FI drawing very cold air towards the uk so at least we would have a frosty settled spell but probably not the snow showers. There are big differences between the gfs & ecm at T+240 hours with the ecm very unsettled throughout the run whereas the gfs 00z shows high pressure pushing north across the uk with some inversion cold resulting but for the next 6-8 days it looks like remaining unsettled with the north being generally a bit colder than the south and the south does look like being fairly mild for a time next week.

I'm talking about the autumn overall, it's been v.mild with barely a frost, the cold snaps a year ago were far more potent. The models today have ended with just another prolonged mild and miserable spell ahead of us, back to square 1

Let's face it, we are used to that in the uk in winter, nothing new there. I don't think I can remember an autumn / early winter season like this one with barely a frost or snow worth a mention. The 18z just gives us a lp conveyor belt of the usual. If you want cold, it's where it usually is...Russia

Is it

Agreed nick, it could be a lot worse. I think we need GP to give us some good news, if there is any

That's a good explanation for what went wrong.

Oh yes I remember that now, it showed the beasterly for nearly a week then it vanished but from what I remember, it hardly had any ensemble support throughout but stuck with it whereas the ecm never bought into it whatsoever. I don't think we can really look beyond the very unsettled phase which is set to last beyond T+168 hours and all we can do is hope that we get a decent cold snap later in the month, compared to the same time a year ago it's been a very disappointing season so far for the lack of anything cold and hardly any frost.

I'm sure the 18z will deliver something special like it did last night although I missed it unfortunately. It just makes me wonder how the gfs can pick up a trend for 4 runs in a row and then completely drop it in favour of the tripe it served up this afternoon, maybe it should just go out to T+144 so as not to make itself look stupid as it does most days.

Were we expecting anything else at that range?

GFS 12z has gone pear shaped sadly, no e'ly, no n'ly either

Yeah where is he....and maybe mr crazy snowman will return if the gfs 12z keeps the trend going for 4 runs in a row!! surely that would be a first Anyway, back to reality and there is no end in sight to the very unsettled weather with often strong to gale force sse'ly winds and periods of rain, heavy at times and a continiuing risk of localised flooding with a low pressure fueld atlantic throwing bad weather our way for the next 7-10 days at least, maybe hints then of pressure building closer to the east or northeast and more settled conditions but that's beyond the meteorological horizon.

I remember you said this last week and now the GFS is showing exactly the same thing, a good call there TEITS :unsure:

2 runs in a row, thats a record for the gfs, maybe a new trend then :unsure:

Despite the FI eye candy we still havent had a cold snap of note so far and this time last year we had already seen 3 cold spells so it's taking a lot longer this time. The gfs 00z in FI was probably the most wintry sequence of charts i've seen in a long while but the chances of it occuring are probably no higher than 0.1% Remaining unsettled with temps veering from slightly below to slightly above the seasonal average during the next 7 to 10 days IMO.

The GFS 00z has a real tease later in FI with a bitterly cold snowy/frosty dreamland but reaching that narnia like fantasy world will prove very difficult or impossible in reality. The models indicate that the next 7-10 days will be very unsettled with low pressure near iceland being dominant and further lows spawning in mid atlantic and rushing towards nw scotland such as the vigorous feature next tues/wed, ok it's almost 7 days away but the lp track shown on the gfs & ecm looks realistic given the southerly tracking jet. Temps next week look lowest in the north with a risk of highland snow but nearer average further south and just about on the mild side in southern and sw england, s. wales.

In a parallel universe maybe. The ecm seems to have imploded after offering a lot of promise recently but it just shows how much all the models are struggling.