Frosty.

I was rather hoping we could put the ECM 12z in the bin and just keep the GFS 12z post T240 hours but I guess that is just being too picky.

Agreed paul, I think the ECM 12z is disappointing although an improvement on this week (wouldn't be difficult), nothing like the gfs in fi which at least has a northerly, a mildish easterly is not very appetizing really.

The charts next week don't inspire me much, having looked at the gfs for next week I can only see temps returning to near normal values and the only good thing about next week is seeing the azores high out of the way.

Having glanced at the GFS 12z I can't see anything wintry until T240 hours when a major cold plunge pushes south, until then it looks like this current prolonged mild spell will last until early next week before being replaced with temps nearer average and more unsettled conditions, nothing wintry in my opinion until DEEP FI.

I'm not sure about that, colder yes, more wintry...depends on your definition of more wintry. I can't see anything on the models that suggest a rerun of the early feb wintry spell except in the deep fantasy area of the gfs. A colder trend with wintry ppn for northern hills is about the best we can expect during next week.

Slow changes up to and including the weekend as our mild high is eroded from the north west by the first depression, a painfully slow process though. Next week is when the major changes look likely with the second depression - encapsulating a pool of cold air which is forecast to sink south to the west of the British Isles during the course of next week. Should this happen, the W'ly airflow would steadily back through SW'ly to become a strong SE'ly and then by the end of next week into a strong NE'ly. It looks like next week will be significantly colder than this week and more unsettled with wintry precipitation for northern hills and mountains, maybe a wintry mix even in southern areas later next week. Deep FI on the GFS 6z is still showing a wintry blast of epic proportions but still too far out to take seriously.

Yes it's looking more like the first half of March could produce for cold fans with the Azores High finally doing something right and going west.

This is the best news of the day although it has been strongly hinted at previously, the Azores High has long outstayed it's welcome if indeed it was even welcomed in the first place, certainly not by me! Looking like a colder more unsettled spell is on the way although nothing particularly wintry is anticipated.

Anything is better than the dross of the last 10 day or so, the GFS 12z continues the theme of chillier and more unsettled times ahead but not until the weekend onwards, until then the same old mild cloudy rubbish to continue.

Early March is looking colder and more unsettled according to the latest models and our current high which has been lingering around for the last few weeks and diverting all the interesting weather into central europe is going to lose it's grip and will be eroded as low pressure moves in from the north west by the weekend.

Nice to see you being so optimistic these days

Yes I saw that too, Cold trend continues on 18z GFS, good solid agreement now from all the models for a cold zonal blast just as BFTP gets home from skiing holiday, good timing eh

The meto continue to downgrade the cold zonality with snow confined to ben nevis and cairngorm summit now, much as it is in summer really. :lol:

Enjoyed reading that Steve B) T+144 is the crucial timeframe then.

And April can sometimes deliver wintry weather (like this year). Infact, snow is statistically more likely at easter than christmas but that is usually because our winters are ridiculously mild and spring offers more variety.

I always use December 1st until February 28th. Even though the charts for next week look choc full of potential the meto further update always leaves a sour taste, whilst I understand they have to be ultra cautious, they don't seem to suggest what is showing on the models generally and I assume they look at all the major model output before the daily updates and not just their own model.

The winter forecast from BFTP & RJS gets my vote anyway, much more exciting.

Not very inspiring from the met office bods really, it sounds like reading between the lines they are expecting january and february to be much milder after a cold start to winter, with temps coming out above average overall, nothing special there then. As for the meto further outlook just released, no mention of the word snow in the 3-5 day range and only snow for high ground out to 15 days although they do concede it will be a rather cold period for the first week with milder westerlies for week two. .......so, considering all the excitement being generated by the models and, wow we have never seen anything like this for years etc, the meto have in my view just poured cold water over the whole thing in their usual manner.

Thanks for answering my question Roger. Your explanation was a very interesting and informative read, thanks again. I have my fingers crossed that both of you have success with your long range forecast and we finally see a winter that delivers wintry weather for a change.

I'm very sad to hear about the passing of Jack Scott at the age of 85. I remember writing him a letter when I was a young boy and he wrote back to me describing the qualifications I would need to become a meteorologist, alas I never made it but he was my favourite forecaster. I used to love those magnetic weather symbols which Jack introduced to the British public in 1975.

I enjoyed reading your combined efforts which must have taken a while to construct. One thing though, you mention plenty of cold weather but are we talking Easterlies or Northerlies or some of both, thanks again.

Agreed, the usual stratospheric cooling is occuring again and it takes a while for the effects of this to filter through but the odds must favour a mild winter as per normal although cold snaps here and there can't be ruled out. The meto just do the broad brush strokes with their seasonal forecasts with not too much detail and freak weather events obviously can't be anticipated by anyone.

Even if it was showing a Northerly I wouldn't believe it, the uk is cursed with south westerlies until the gulf stream conveyor belt shuts down sometime never.

How depressing.

It was exactly what I expected, the chances of us ever getting a below average or even average winter again are slim to zero. If we get anything approaching 05/06 it will be worthwhile, I think that shows how my expectations have lowered. :lol: