Frosty.

Disappointing model output again today which carries on the trend since early July. The ecm & ukmo 12z show an increase in heat/humidity from midweek but then bring in low pressure from the continent and yet more torrential downpours/thunderstorms to keep the soggy summer theme continuing, at least temps look good but the rain is now becoming a real pain. No sign of any sustained settled weather during the next few weeks with low pressure always close to the north but in the longer range it may well be that high pressure to the south of the uk will bring the best of the conditions to southern england whereas areas further north will have mixed fortunes.

Fine weather will be restricted to the odd day here and there during the next 7-10 days, tuesday represents a suckers gap with a brief respite from this awful weather but overall it looks a very unsettled period nationwide with either showers or prolonged rain. The driest and warmest weather will again be reserved for the south east but even those areas will see rain at times. The GFS 00z indicates an improvement just before the end of the month and start of August as pressure rises to the north east but then followed by yet more unsettled conditions so this summer appears to be on a downward slide after a very promising start...disappointing in my view.

Hmmmm, maybe we should pencil in this friday for torrential downpours too in england & wales, come to that, many days next week will have torrential downpours in various parts of the uk. A very unsettled spell ahead of us and turning cooler during the first part of next week before some recovery in the second half as winds become southerly or south easterly for a time. Signs of a slacker pressure pattern to close out July and early August which could mean warm/humid with mix of sun and thundery showers.

Not much reason to cheer the GFS 12z today, a very unsettled run until late in the period when it shows signs of improvement. Next week looks potentially very wet and cooler than currently plus windy in the north but nobody is immune from cool/wet weather in the next 10 days or so, not expecting the latest ecm to show anything different either if the 00z was anything to go by, summer 2009 is going to suffer a major wobble in the next few weeks IMO.

Agreed, the models are taking on a more unsettled look in the coming days, even more so than the current showery but warm weather. The coming weekend into next week looks cooler and very unsettled with strong winds at times, about as unsummerlike as you can get in July. As a few others have mentioned, it could improve before the end of the month but the next few weeks don't look promising unless you like wet breezy weather.

The models are all showing a very unsettled outlook for the rest of July which is very disappointing and indicates that this summer is beginning to go pear shaped although it's already a superior summer compared to last year. It looks like most days will have either showers or longer spells of rain but temps will be reasonable and it will be warm in any sunny spells. There are no positive signs on any model for a return to hot and sunny conditions which is just typical as we enter the main holiday season.

The 12z models look unsettled for next week, especially the ukmo & ecm but the gfs brings a brief return to hot/humid weather later next week into the weekend for more south eastern areas but is on it's own with that idea as the ecm keeps the hot weather across mainland europe instead. It could be very wet in NW Britain next week with low pressure set up sw to ne to the nw of the uk with high pressure close to the south east.

If the models are to be believed, there is no sign of another heatwave any time soon and overall it looks moderately warm at best and decidedly chilly at worst depending on location as always. Showery troughs and weak ridges seems likely over the next few weeks and slow moving showers in FI as winds fall light but during the next five days we pick up a fresh N'ly in eastern areas with a big drop in temperature from the last week, not exactly BBQ weather ahead of us.

I admit that it was OTT for me to say autumnal but next week is looking even more unsettled than it did on yesterday's charts. The GFS 00z is indicating a strengthening Northerly airflow with showers and longer spells of rain, it does then show a marked improvement for the following week but that is deep FI and therefore very suspect at this stage.

The charts next week look autumnal with a showery NW'ly airflow only slowly giving way as a ridge builds across the south. The current heat and humidity will last until the weekend but then disappear as it turns more unsettled everywhere with cyclonic winds becoming NW'ly as low pressure across the north pushes north east towards Norway. The GFS 06z in deeper FI looks very disappointing with atlantic lows sweeping bands of rain and some windy weather across the uk mid July but with high pressure over mainland europe making southern and eastern england somewhat drier but this excellent hot spell does not look like being repeated for some considerable time.

Difficult to know which model to believe today, the track of the fairly large atlantic depression is still not nailed but the latest meto update suggests the low will transfer to the east of the uk and pull down a cold NW'ly or N'ly later next week before high pressure and milder air pushes east the following week.

Looks like the GFS is now catching up to the ECM on the early morning runs, the UKMO is a bit different but overall I can't see anything wintry as such next week now, the Northerly and cold NW'ly has gone and we have cloudy cool winds off the north sea instead with rain and drizzle...pathetic is how I describe it.

I'm hoping for a blend of the gfs & ecm 12 with a Northerly followed by an Easterly, i'm not sure the ecm has much support but it has hardly changed from the 00z which is noteworthy. The gfs looks good up to and including next weekend before the wheels come flying off but the ecm would lock us into a prolonged unusually wintry spell for so late in the season.

Not a bad ukmo 12z run, not as good as the gfs 12z at T144 but it still has a chilly NW'ly showery airflow with wintry showers and night frosts, the gfs looks more dramatic and evolves into a N'ly, the ukmo looks like it would not support that idea if it went out further, all eyes on the ecm now.

Hi Paul, I notice the GFS Northerly which it was showing on some deep FI charts since last weekend has almost made it into the reliable timeframe but the ecm is rather different and crucially different with the track of the large atlantic depression, i'm hoping the ecm looks more like the gfs 12z tonight but also hoping for the Northerly (if it happens) will last longer than shown currently.

It looks a short lived cold snap on the GFS 12z, hp topples in with milder air early the following week but one step at a time. We will need to see what the ecm thinks because so far it's totally different for next week.

Yes that was a stunningly embarresing backtrack. Still major differences between the gfs & ecm regarding the track of next week's deep low, the meto must be following the gfs track because the ecm evolution does not tie in with the meto update today, it might tomorrow though.

Agreed, It looks milder after next week which would make 3 mild weeks out of 4, quite impressive given it's been a colder winter than usual by uk standards. :lol:

If the GFS 6z is to be believed, scotland would be plunged back into winter, especially the northern half with large amounts of snow, gales, blizzards and overnight frosts but elsewhere it looks less severe although a wintry mix is still likely with daytime maxima between 5-7c but falling in heavier showers which could contain wet snow. The track of the lows remain uncertain though and there are big differences between the gfs & ecm in that respect.

I think it's safe to say the uk will be colder and more unsettled next week, those are the broad brush strokes only though because detail will be hard to pin down with positioning and potency of low pressures still unclear. A big change from the stagnant mild cloudy rubbish of the last few weeks though is guaranteed.

Oh well, which model will back down I wonder......hmmmmmm, the ECM 12z was an improvement on the 00z with cold air unlike the 00z which looked average. The ukmo is not buying it, more like the ecm 00z at T144 but will be interesting what the morning brings. I'm not expecting much though as we are about to enter march, any snow is only fleeting from now on.

A disappointing UKMO 12z with the main low staying to the west which looks similar to the ECM 00z run earlier today. The GFS seems on it's own yet again and how long will it be before it downgrades sheepishly as per usual, new gfs but same old problems although I would love it to be right for once... :o

Hi Brian, I wouldn't worry, that low looks ott and has little support. I often find the gfs over-eggs these depressions and they turn out rather less fearsome when the time comes. Looks like the trend towards less mild is now set in stone for next week with showers perhaps becoming wintry across northern hills with the driest, brightest conditions in south east britain with temps nearer average.

Yes paul, I think we have seen the last of the really wintry weather. The ecm offers up typical early spring synoptics and the gfs is probably wrong as per usual.

The ECM 00z is very poor overall, keeping the uk in a mostly westerly flow occasionally buckling into a sw'ly or southerly. It would keep temps close to average with spells of rain and brighter spells. The GFS 00z is much better in that it transfers all the energy further east and puts us on the cold side as depressions make more eastward progress, in my opinion we are no closer to a return of wintry conditions.