Yozzer
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Posts posted by Yozzer
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Yes, the low now rapidly developing (or 'bombogenesis' as our friends across the Atlantic like to term it) is heading up through the Gulf of Maine towards NS. Latest estimates are for up to 50cm level snow in some areas, with hurricane force winds wrapping around the centre, causing massive drifts, 3m or more. A New Year's storm to remember!
Take care out there, and post the pics when it's over.
Have a happy and safe New Year.
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I thought that with model outputs causing some despondancy (to me included) I would post Joe B's lastest offerings.
He seems incredibly bullish about cold deepening.
Where does he get this?
Does he have access to info we don't?
We seem to be in a very unusual situation where the model output is being substantially disregarded by some forecasters, and experts like GP. I hope they're right.
Mods, if this is not acceptable here please move it as you see fit, but it's his take on the output so I'm offering it here............
"MONDAY, DEC. 29, 7 A.M. EST
OKAY, LET'S HAVE SOME FUN WITH THE WEATHER.
The reason I love to use London as a bellweather of northwestern Europe is that in a warm amo, it's tough to be cold there. This is not a backyard forecasting site, just a heads-up on some things I see coming and other topics, but to have a cold January in London is impressive given the cycle we are in. So here we go. December as of now is .8 below normal in London, the coldest areas in Europe have been over Spain. The east has been warm. Widepsread, and in some cases, extreme cold will develop by Jan. 5 and probably last through the 20th across most of Europe and so I am going to say January in London will be more than 2 degrees below normal and in fact could be as much as 3-4 F below, which would make it the coldest since the '80s.
Thanks for reading. Ciao for now. ****
SUNDAY, DEC. 28, 8 A.M.
YOU WANT IT... YOU'RE GOING TO GET IT.
The cold that has been a mainstay of the southern European pattern the past couple of weeks is not the cold I am talking about that IS COMING. The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks, and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time. The two- to three-week period that comes in the wake of the warmth that is occurring now because of the block over the north will more than justify the idea that one heck of cold period is coming up in January. In the end, my mistake will be that apparently I did not make clear the idea that this was a forecast from a couple of weeks out to let you know, as apparently it was, in many minds, supposed to start instantly from the date of post over a week ago. But I will watch the continent's weather and see how it turns out. In the end, we got off to the fast start centered on November and early December, and we will find that that when we total things up, give or take a week, the first half of winter had the wildest weather not the second half, which should grow tranquil with the hope of an early spring for most of the continent. However, what is coming in front of us for the continent as a whole, should be the nastiest in recent memory. "
Len
I'm afraid JB is rapidly becoming the Piers Corbyn of the States. I don't think he's privy to any more data than many people on here.
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Damn BT and all the cable cos. for burying the phone lines. They're spoiling things for those of us who want to go out to the pub and feel our way home on top of the snow drifts using the telephone cables...
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Click on link to see footage of a dramatic rescue of motorists trapped in their cars after a 66 inch water main burst on a country road in Maryland, USA. The main sent 135 million gallons a minute onto the road turning it into a river rapid. Bear in mind the temps were about -8C at the time!
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Imagine that. Travelling hundreds or even thousands of light years across the galaxy, then ending up in Halesowen! As Harry Hill might say, 'What're the chances of that? eh, eh?' :o
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Heavy sleet here in Blairgowrie. We're not very high, just about 60m asl, so should be quite wintry in the Highlands/Grampians. Actually, just seen the Lecht webcam, it's 'blin drift' as they say up there!!
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Started snowing at 11pm last night, about 3 hrs ahead of expectation. Was disappointed to wake up to a sprinkling of slush, especially following Rob McElwee's forecast last night. I think there was (and still is) a bit of over egging for conditions up here, even higher up. Can't see 20cm+ even at 200m. Maybe at 600m!
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Light snow now falling here in Perthshire on top of approx 2" from yesterday. Temp currently -4.5C.
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6000 feet of ice eh? Plenty to bury Fleet St and even Canary Wharf then. Excellent news!!
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He will be remembered by those of us of a certain age as a towering giant of the world of meteorology. Very sad news indeed, and the passing of an era. Sincere condolences to all his family.
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A completely pointless forecast IMO.
The trouble with IB and his forecasts is that he just predicts the same without looking at the overall current situation. Now backing the form horse might make it favourite but this isn't the correct way of producing a LRF. Lets use the last 2 summers as an example. Based on our summers in the last 10 yrs who on earth would of predicted such a miserable couple of summers.
I've always said since I joined this forum that one of these years this country is going to experience a very cold winter and it isn't a case of if but when. I believe this winter is going to be the one we have been waiting for and I know I have said this in the past but I genuinely believe it to be true this winter.
Hold on to your hats & scarves because this Dec is going to be bitter!
Hi TEITS,
Sorry if this sounds a bit direct, but isn't your forecast above just similar to what you're accusing Ian of? I'm not defending him, as I believe his is a climatic prediction rather than a weather forecast. But in the same way, saying that we're going to get a howler of a winter one of these days, and this could be the one, is stating the bl##din' obvious! It is a 'hopecast', not a forecast, and Ian's is a 'defaultcast.'
Either one of you could be right about this winter (the 'form horse' of Ian's is most likely, but yours is possible too). We'll see when we do a PM come the spring, but that isn't weather forecasting...
No offence mate.
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Although NOAA and NHC going for a Cat 3 making landfall well to West of NO, FEMA and the authorities must be making initial plans for another evacuation, even if the call doesn't actually come. If my memory serves, Katrina hit more to the east than initially forecast, hence their current state of 'twitchiness' which is entirely understandable. Ike could be the 'sucker punch' to Gustav.
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ike is still cat 4 according to the latest from noaa, and the eye is over great inagua island, a place up to now i had never heard of. i wonder if anyone on here has ever been under the eye of a hurricane. i doubt it, but it must be the most eerie yet terrifying experience. does the wind drop off completely?
Agree. In his book, 'Down Under,' Bill Bryson describes a soundtrack made during a typhoon that flattened Darwin. The terrifying sound of destruction, followed by an eerie silence, followed by the even more terrifying destruction once the eye had passed had a profound effect on him by all accounts. Anyway, have a look at some of the recordings on YouTube, some remarkable vids of flights through the eye.
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Looking pretty wintry in Barrow at present, temp around freezing, snowing, windchill about -6. Notice the sea ice which had broken up and moved down the coast and further offshore has now blown back in. They're certainly hardy types up there!
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Not sure if anyone on here has come across Mr. Pielke before, but he makes some interesting observations worthy of debate on this link.
One claim refers to heat bias, I think he may be talking about the heat island effect of expanding large cities which may not adequately have been factored in by IPCC.
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Check out this link. Should provoke some heated debate. The study was peer reviewed apparantly, although not sure what 'peers' they were!!
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I was up in Albany, NY last Friday where they had about 3 inches of wet snow. A very distinct snowline with that system; about 20 miles south of Albany there was no lying snow at all.
It's been cool but largely unspectacular in NYC so far this spring. Apparently four of the past five Marches have had at least one day of 65oF temperatures. Not this year! A warm surge tomorrow, and another warm surge on Saturday associated with warm sectors, but cool other than that.
What do I care? I'm in Corpus Christi in Southern Texas where it's currently 26oC. Unfortunately it's cloudy and humid; we're to the south of the system which is bringing the severe storms further North. I'm not surprised so much moisture leads to such strong storms up there!
As you say, weather in NYC (and other major US cities) has been fairly unspectacular this winter. Not so further north, with the major eastern Canadian cities and far northern US being hit with record breaking snowfalls (but not record breaking cold).
Yet this has been largely unreported in the US. Probably as I said, no major US cities affected, just northern 'Hicksville!'
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Just returning to UK via Logan airport after trip to our house in Northern NH. Beautiful sunny skies today, mild spring-like temps into low 40s after a night of sub zero temps (-18C), following snowstorm (approx 5 ins) on Friday.
Local town has recorded 144.1 ins of snow this season, just about an all time record! The area to the east of the White Mountains around N Conway has been buried with half as much again. The mountains have recorded much more, Jay Peak's (Vermont) total is currently standing at 391", a whisker off 10 meters... truly staggering!
We may not see the like again in our lifetimes.
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Debs, watch out for the clipper system coming out of the States, headed your way Thurs. It will pick up energy over Gulf of Maine and hit NB and Newfoundland quite hard. The big one to watch though is headed your way for Sunday, could be a full blown blizzard by the time it hits you.
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Heavy snow crippled parts of northern Algeria and interior Tunisia earlier this week. According to local Algerian media, snowfall of up to 20 inches (50 cm) blocked 18 national roads and isolated seven provinces. The bulk of the snow fell on north-facing slopes of the Atlas Mountains as well as the foothills just to the north. While snow mixed with rain along the coast in the capital of Algiers, temperatures were just warm enough at the surface to prevent significant accumulations of snow. Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller
Not highly unusual for the High Atlas to get such a dumping, but pretty unusual for areas near the coast, especially in March with things warming up rapidly in such low latitudes.
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Columbus, ohio broke its all time record for a single storm over the weekend, with 20.4". Clipper system on its way for midweek, before a bit of a thaw, with some models going for a return to winter in the north-east after next weekend.
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Yes, by the look of 0z, track has shifted very very slightly to west, so a bit worried about amount of rain falling onto snowpack in New England, which together with possible ice damming in rivers could cause some major flooding.I hope I get into LaGuardia before the first band of rain hits. There's a developing disturbance expected to come in quite a bit ahead of the main storm. My flight is supposed to arrive at about 2pm so hopefully the rain won't have arrived yet. Could be 2-3 inches or even more by the time this has passed through.
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Yes, looks like the Mid-west gets a brief cold shot in time for your trip...enjoy!...
Currently, I'd expect either a fish storm, or a trend to the West which eventually brings the storm through as a coastal hugger, i.e. rain for east of the I95 corridor with snow to rain further west. This has been the case for the season so far and I don't see anything different now.
Incidentally, probably the last intense cold shot looks to be heading down later this week. 850 temps down to below -20oC as far south as Chicago with sub 510 thicknesses. Currently the forecast high for Chicago on Friday (where I find myself this week) is -6oC. As with much of the season though, the cold shot departs as quickly as it arrives. This air passes over to NYC by Saturday. The ensembles are far from agreement on this one though; there is a lot of uncertainty given the sheer amount of energy passing across the continent with a couple of meaty storms.
Still think GFS is pushing the storm later in the week a bit too far offshore, time will tell. If it goes up the immediate eastern seaboard I think this will be the best one of the season.
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That's been the main story. Chicago has had a snowy winter, but not especially cold; the same is true of Southern Wisconsin. I guess that's to be expected though; the coldest weather is associated with a persistent trough over the Midwest which is bitterly cold, but also dry. Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin have been colder, but somewhat dryer. Minneapolis and Duluth are both below normal snowfall.
A persistent storm track has set up all winter, with storms tracking from South West to North East and just enough cold air in place for everywhere from a line North of Kansas to Boston to see a lot of snow. South of this, it's been more a snow to rain or pure rain story.
Anyway, looking at the clipper coming in late tomorrow. Looking at up to 3 inches for the city. It looks like a mighty close call to me though. 850 temperatures stay below freezing for the duration, but the dewpoints are borderline and the ground temperature looks like being freezing or thereabouts. A slight shift north and this is rain for NYC.
WF, What are your views on the storm being progged for the east coast late next week? Depending on the track, NYC could get a fair dump out of it.
PS, Dalton in NH, where I have my vacation home got down to -34C this morning!!
Snow Reports - Wednesday 3rd December Onwards
in Weather reports
Posted
Very light dusting here in East Perthshire this morning, possibly just some graupel.