[18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!]

Being in NE Scotland, that looks promising for me. :lol:

Given that milder air is not that far away, it's a bit of a knife-edge job though. :lol:

On the coast you will be very lucky to see snow, the 528DAM (I know its not the only factor, but in this set up it will be a major one) is north of you anyway. And since when is Carnoustie North-East Scotland...............?? :lol:

[06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!]

I'm afraid that it's very poignant that the low progged by 6Z GFS over S. England at T120 is the shape of a pear! I would expect UKMO and ECM to fall in line at some stage today. 2-4" max over 300m from pennines northwards IMO, followed by rapid thaw.

[Best winter event for you since the turn of the century]

Think for me it it was Xmas eve 1995, a polar low bringing fierce winds, heavy snow, ball lightning etc. The ferocity of the storm took most by surprise, and to see such a blizzard in the halogen lights was spectacular. We had friends round that evening, and they had to abandon their car in our drive with 4' drifts all the way to the main road. Some of the more exposed routes had huge drifts that took several days for snowblowers to clear. Our friends car was eventually dug out by their son on a tractor 3 days later! The event was followed by showers for several days, then very frosty for another few days.

[When severe cold leads to disaster......]

In past cold spells, we often hear of the tragedy of people falling through ice and drowning thinking the ice could take their weight or rescuing pets that have fallen through on frozen lakes, canals etc, however such individual tragedies pale compare to what happened at the Regent's Park lake in January 1867.

January 1867 was a cold month with a CET of 1.2

The start of the January was intensely cold with the 4th an especially cold day but 3 days later it became very mild before turning very cold again on the 11th and this lasted to the 21st; the period 11th-21st January had a mean of -2.9

The very cold spell cause lakes, ponds etc to ice over and Regent's Park lake in London became a mecca for ice skaters.

On the 15th of January, many ice skaters took to the frozen lake but disaster struck when the ice cracked and scores of people fell through the broken ice. Over 40 people drowned in the disaster, in one of the worst winter related disasters to occurred in the UK.

I seem to recall that there was a disaster in Lewes some time in the 19th century, with about 6 people killed in an 'avalanche' of snow when a cornice broke away and fell on to houses below.