Yozzer
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Posts posted by Yozzer
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In some ways, the event for today and tomorrow is rather like the nor'easters that the east coast of the USA and Canada occasionally get. A LP system of ST origin drifting up the east coast, then 'bombing out' as it moves north and the subtropical element is engaged by a polar airmass. Not exactly the same synoptics of course, but the effects are similar, heavy windblown snow inland or with altitude, and rain/sleet at the coast. Unusual for us as normally in the winter these North Sea lows come down from the north or across from the atlantic.
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Well, this map doesn't show anything nice
Strong vortex and zonal
I think we will see a more zonal spell in a week or so's time, and a chart like that would bring very heavy snowfall to many upland areas of northern Britain. The Spey valley for example can get feet of snow from such a set up.
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Would that bring snow all the way across the atlantic because its soooo cold ?
not in Weymouth it won't, unless you are at about 1500m! Lots of surface layer modification takes place over the 2500 miles of ocean it's travelled over, despite the very cold air that spawned it.
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I actually do like Paul Mooney, I think the problem is that the stuff his forecasts are based on are 12 hours out of date. But, he could well be right for the big population areas of the North East which are all at the coast. It could well turn to sleet or rain if there is a direct easterly or south easterly, as dew points at the coast will be above zero, the 528 dam line will be offshore by then, and with mixing due to higher winds, surface temps will get above zero. I would say come inland 10 miles plus or with a bit of altitude (150m) and it would be an all snow event.
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Roger J Smith — resides in British Columbia and got winter 2009/10 and 2010/11 nailed.
And if you read his full forecast, has been pretty reasonable so far this winter.
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Ian Brown - with apologies to The Stranglers....
Ian Brown he likes the sun
Plays the ECM down if cold it runs
Throughout the night
Looking for a fight
Eye In The Sky versus Ian Brown
Every time just like the last
Having a go at Blast from the Past
To distant lands
Takes both his hands
Keeps Mushy Man warm, that's Ian Brown
Ian Brown, says WTF in jest
Through the models he's looking for west is best
From far away
Stays for a day
Never cold full blown, with Ian Brown
Always a frown
With Ian Brown
Always a frown
With Ian Brown
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GFS 12Z backtracks a fair few hundred miles west compared to yesterday's GFS 12Z output as expected. This time tomorrow I expect to see better height rises to our NW with regards to early to mid next week enabling stagnant friged very cold air to build over the UK. Atlantic doors closing over Ireland with the Jet energy from the eastern seaboard of America diving southeast into the mid Atlantic. Imo pressure will remain low over the Continent eventually leading to a NE/E wind later next week.
East Anglia and the SE end this week on a very cold note with the coldest hpa temperature's...... - 12Chpa not far away.
Snowfall...... By the time we get to saturday most of the sleet and snow will be restricted to the Channel Islands and Northern France with snow showers slightly more widespread than the charts currently show across eastern England. I do think East Anglia will stay mainly dry this weekend, but will see slow moving snow showers filtering in during monday as winds veer NE.
Certainly been a very interesting period for model watching this last week, with more to come. I'm siding with the MetO on their long-term forecast.........cold, frosty, sunshine and snow!
NH
Welcome to NW. Just wondering, do naturists not fear -12 uppers? Like I say, just wondering...
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thinking higher pressure with more TM than PM, so fairly mild overall, but chance of a colder end to the month. So going for 4.6
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think I may have to amend my 3.1c to minus 3.1c if the ECM 12z verified even closely!!!
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3.1C for me.
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I realise that is nominally said that a negative NAO tends to a low CET, for instance Winter 2009-2010 coincided with a negative NAO, but Octobers NAO was even more negative and the CET was above average.
I suspect, as always, that it is in combination with other factors where it's role becomes important.
Surely one of the major factors in trying to corelate NAO with CET will be the time of year and the source of the airmass. In the above example any continental flow with a -NAO would give a higher than average CET in October when the continent is still warm, but conversely a lower one come the winter quarter, or with an arctic airmass. Or am I being simplistic here???
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I have a neighbour who takes it upon herself to clear everybodys paths before we even get up as she thinks its dangerous ...?im going to tell her to clear after its frozen thats dangerous.
Also i just wanted to tell someone one of my neighbours has put their christmas decs uo..thought my eyes were playing tricks..remind me what month are we in ?. Rant over.
She needs an ASBO - an anti snow blowing order!
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No building blocks
No cold
No snow
No vember
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http://www.bbc.co.uk...scotland/W_Br_1
nice dusting at one of the usual suspects.
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Insch in Aberdeenshire has, well, just under an inch...(a dusting anyway according to my son)
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Please dont take this post the wrong way people, i.e - as a winters over post.
I have a slight concern that some, but not all of the CFS runs are showing the blocking continuing for another 3-4 weeks but then a very zonal winter after that, i hope that this theory is completely wrong but is that because the stratosphere has not cooled fully yet, but when it does, it is going to be below average, thus the signal for a strong jet begins at the start of winter proper and the model is picking up on that signal.
Ah yes - shall I be first to quote the old adage??? OK then, but it'll get some people right hot under the collar!!!
"Ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter will be slush and blah, blah, blah, blah, etc."
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It could indeed but as I've commented about their large amount of model input, so far, the 06z is a one off. Time may show it to be either that or the start of a change in model output. All they can do is go with their professional instincts with the data available to them, which is much more than we ever see.
they only update the 16-30 as they feel necessary SS as I posted about 12 months ago after e mail discussions with the forecast team. The fact they have chosen not to update their temperature phrase is significant.
I suppose it has been updated in one way - if the 16-30 has been the same wording for one week, then the timing has been put back by one week!
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well thank you, that's all much clearer now...
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Anyone know of any research that's been done/in progress related to the greenhouse effect caused by, ahem, greenhouses??? Don't laugh, hear me out!
I was pondering this the other day as I opened my car door and a wall of heat hit me and flooded out, and it got me to wondering if such 'trapping' of heat by human structures can have any significant effect on global warming?
Theoretically it should have an effect, since any structure which allows UV radiation in but does not allow it to escape, will add to atmospheric heat. We already know of urban heat islands, but how much of this heat is generated by the greenhouse effect, and is it exacerbated by, for example, the proliferation of poly-tunnels and the 100s of millions of cars in any significant way?
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Sorry but what does this mean? I can't work out what is being shown here :S
When I first copied and pasted this page it was showing the whole of the northern hemisphere covered in snow, even tropical Africa! Unfortunately the page updates daily so has changed. Its still wrong though, showing the entire NH now snow free. Sorry for the confusion.
It seems pristine white snow is a thing of the past...
Edge of Darkness. I knew Gaia would do for us one day...
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I haven't dared look out of the window after seeing this...
I hasten to add that, before it was updated, this page was showing snow cover over the entire NH, Day After Tomorrow style!
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To be 'fair' to Mr. Corbyn, it would appear he isn't the only charlatan out there shamelessly promoting his own vague abilities to secure financial gain. The following is taken from James Maddens site at exactaweather...
Sunday 18th December 2011
White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow
After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.
Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.
Now, can we all please just ignore them in the hope that they'll go away?
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I haven't dared look out of the window after seeing this...
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True, but snow depth maps are backing up these figures. Latest chart topper is Peru in Western Mass at 32 ins. Looks like these totals are very plausible as when the low bombed the heaviest falls were recorded in a contained area in West Mass and South NH, and any altitude (e.g. Jaffrey is about 1000ft) will positively affect totals. My bet is that these totals are about right.I'd be inclined to wait for official figures as snow depths are notoriously innacurate.
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
But surely you, TEITS, more than most folk on here, don't expect T+240 to look like that chart? Winter forecasts have to be viewed as 'broad strokes' rather than specifics, and GP's forecast, to my mind, has been pretty reasonable so far. So has RJS's, both coming from different methodology. I normally respect your posts, but the last few have simply been having a dig at GP and Chio's long range musings. So, instead of doing that, why not 'have a bash' yourself? What's your take on the last 6 weeks of winter?