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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    A weak Northerly toppler - great! Truly dreadful models and ensembles today (if you're a coldie!)- guess this is the low point of the winter - things can only get better folks!
  2. mulzy
    Deep FI on 18z GEFS has a few interesting HLB solutions.
  3. mulzy
    The hunt for cold reaches desperation as I have to show a CFS 300 hrs chart (albeit a superb one and maybe not too far fetched!)
  4. mulzy
    The zonal picture looks fairly set until the new year, at least. Wet at times and generally mild (exceptionally mild this weekend - we might see 14/15C on Sunday). Limited frost and no snow for us in the SE. Hopefully things will change as we enter the new year. I think we will get something cold and wintry from mid-January onwards (as echoed by GP et al). Sunny and 6.4C right now.
  5. mulzy
    Poor outlook, albeit with transient cold spells for Scotland. Models not even picking up a pattern change in FI. Azores high in charge for the short and medium term.
  6. mulzy
    There is some support (4-5 runs) for the 12z GFS operational amongst the GEFS. The saga continues... My favourite ensemble (pert 14) Pert 18 and 19 not too shabby either.
  7. mulzy
    Yes, the Met Office may have flip-flopped their medium range forecasts recently, but that doesn't mean their forecasts should be dismissed. Stating the obvious, but these guys are the gold standard for forecasting the weather here in the UK. The fact they are predicitng average to mild temperatures in the medium term for the South should be a worry for those who want cold.
  8. mulzy
    Got this horrible feeling that the Azores/Iberian high will play a big role in our weather over the next 2 weeks.
  9. mulzy
    Oh dear - the 18z is pretty much a horror show from start to finish. Big worry - the heights to the south (the Azores high and its relatives). But it's only one run.
  10. mulzy
    Agreed. People talk about Greenland highs and Scandi highs, but the high we should all focus on is the Azores high - it is the winter killer...
  11. mulzy
    Disappointing (from a coldie's point of view) models this evening - no amount of spin can change that fact. The extended 12z ECM De Bilt ensembles are significantly milder than the equivalent set from this morning.
  12. mulzy
    THe GFS Operational is a horror show and the GEFS ensembles are not great (albeit the usual wide scatter does occur in FI). Another concern is the PV potentially slipping back towards Greenland. http://modeles.meteo...21-1-360.png?12 Disappointing output.
  13. mulzy
    Very poor ECM ensembles (as far as cold weather is concerned) which mirrors the Met Office forecast for the next 30 days. The ECM operational which teases us in FI was clearly an outlier. Mild to Average temperatures and lots of rain sums things up perfectly for the foreseebale future. http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html
  14. mulzy
    Oh dear - charts have taken a turn for the worse this morning. Probably what we all feared. Block to the East, trough over the UK looks likely now till Xmas at least. Worryingly there are signs of pressure rising from the south too.
  15. mulzy
    Oh yes - remember that one, the same NAE predicted next to nothing here in West London - we got over 2/3 inches that day.
  16. mulzy
    "The winter killer" aka the Azores High showing its ugly face on the ECM 192.
  17. mulzy
    Think we really need to keep our feet on the ground - even though there are tentative signs for undercut and the block eventually winning through in the op runs of the major models this morning, there is also the possibility that the residual energy of the PV spilling into the Atlantic could fuel the Atlantic for quite some time (as indicated in most of the ECM and GFS ensembles).
  18. mulzy
    More like 10% rather than 25%.
  19. mulzy
    ECM ensemble mean at 216 and 240 suggests that milder Atlantic air will break through (usual caveats apply at this range - confidence, spread etc.). http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
  20. mulzy
    12z GEFS better than 6z GEFS with regards depth and duration of the cold - still the possibility of Atlantic breaking through by day 10 but that's way out in la-la land to be taken seriously. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=0&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0
  21. mulzy
    Easterly at Day 5/6 seems pretty much nailed-on, but the GEFS 6z suite does seem to show higher chance of attack from the Atlantic in the medium term. Need to await the 12z model runs to see if this trend continues....
  22. mulzy
    3.7C please.
  23. mulzy
    De Bilt ECM ensembles trending warmer in FI. A wobble or a genuine trend? http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html
  24. mulzy
    At first glance, the 12z GEFS are 'better' than the 6z set. http://modeles.meteo...21-1-192.png?12
  25. mulzy
    ECM in FI is synoptically awesome. No breakdown in sight at 240.
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