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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    Thanks Nick
  2. mulzy
    Can someone post the link for the NWP verification stats at day 5 and day 6 please. Just interested to see if there has been a fall.
  3. mulzy
    Let's face it folks, the cold spell is being downgraded all the time, and the trend continues with ECM 0z (fairly zonal January fare). UKMO 120 gives us a straw to cluth onto I guess, but generally most of the other operational outputs pointing to a more zonal picture (albeit cool zonality at times) and a + NAO. .
  4. mulzy
    Not sure if this is on-topic but is the modelling of the cut-off low to the west of the Azores (around t+96) casuing differences further along?
  5. mulzy
    short term London ensembles suggest op (and control) among the mildest runs 168-192hrs http://www.meteociel...1&ville=Londres
  6. mulzy
    As stated earlier, the ECM ensemble mean at 168 is good http://www.wetterzen...s/Reem1681.html There may be more variation now at this timeframe now, but the general pattern is still good from the ECM and its ensembles. (and they have been rock solid the last 2-3 days)
  7. mulzy
    But are most AO forecasts based on the GFS and GEFS?
  8. mulzy
    ECM ensemble maps look decent to me day 8: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html day 10: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html Maybe a worry about the lack of heights to the north....
  9. mulzy
    GEFS parallel ensembles much better than previously... http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=1&type=0&ext=1 NOGAPS decent. JMA prettly similar to ECM. Lots of positives this evening!
  10. mulzy
    Strong PV around Greenland the feature of todays model runs. Deep cold still far far away I'm afraid. Mild trending to average sums it up.
  11. mulzy
    Nick - I think the masses in here will feel more comfortable if that mean line moves nearer the operational line
  12. mulzy
    Isn't the "control" run at the same resolution as the other ensembles?
  13. mulzy
    As stratty said above, 18z GEFS seem decent from about +9D onwards.... http://www.meteociel...=0&type=0&ext=1
  14. mulzy
    GFS 18z continues the mild/average theme - pretty much in agreement with the other models and the MetOffice 15-30 dayer.
  15. mulzy
    Yamkin - you're a legend. Arise Sir Yamkin....
  16. mulzy
    Truly horrific 12z GFS Operational - let's hope for better from the Ensembles and ECM, but I would have to say that cold/snow prospects for much of lowland Britain look minimal for the next 2 weeks at least, possibly longer. http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png Straw to clutch onto (for coldies) perhaps: the operational is one of the midler solutions in FI. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1
  17. mulzy
    The operational ECM 12z is a stinker as far as cold weather is concerned - back to a Euro High scenario folks.
  18. mulzy
    The evolution on the ECM from T+192 to T+216 seems odd - the high over Europe just deflates. I know it's FI, but can such an evolution happen so quickly?
  19. mulzy
    Seems to me that the (mean of the) ECM ensembles show the blocking more to the East/South-East rather than the North-East, so not so good for a "cold" evolution. The ECM operational could be an outlier...
  20. mulzy
    Why is this a good old FI run? - it just screams zonality to me - bog standard...
  21. mulzy
    11.0 Warm start then fairly average
  22. mulzy
    Despite the efforts of Yamkin and co to keep spirits up, it is now evidently clear that most of January is going to be fairly zonal - mild to average temperatures. A little unclear what will happen after the 20th - might cool down a bit but defintely no "back in the freezer" conditions. Sorry to burst the optimism bubble, but the next 2-3 weeks not looking good as far as snow and cold weather are concerned in this region. February might to be different of course....
  23. mulzy
    Will Hand is a bit of cold ramper. However MetOffice longer term outlook still suggesting a colder second half of January so who know?
  24. mulzy
    I'll go for 1.7C - mostly cold with some mild spells
  25. mulzy
    Still snowing lightly here in Raynes Park, SW20 Seems like we had 5 cm overnight, making this the biggest snow event of the cold spell (from a decaying front - pretty ironic!)
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