Discombobulation Man

I dont like the projected evolution of the this cold spell for my part of London at all, marginality starts knocking on the door early sunday morning now and we all know what happens when there's a sniff of marginality in London. Today = a bit of snizzle in the afternoon (disappointed because before I went to bed last night that low pressure off the coast looked a right little terror and thought we'd do well) Tomorrow = mainly dry Saturday = last decent chance to get some lying snow for a good few hours I reckon. . . before the blow torch fires up and milder air comes streaming up the estuary turning it sleety I guess for Sunday. Still aware of the potential that could develop though so I'm not slashing wrists just yet.

White out conditions in the NW of the Blow torch central zone! (ZONE 3) 20ps and some 50ps

Light/Moderate snow here in the NW of the central blow torch zone, we do have a thin covering I suppose you could say maybe a cm, still a bit slushy. . . . . . will need to get a lot heavier to have any impact in C London imo though . . . especially since the damn gritters have been annoyingly efficient here

I'm in the same BS snizzle screw zone as you in the city of London - except I have a flame thrower licking my behind as well. . . and you think you have it bad? Given that the MetO warnings are only out to 4pm I dont see how the screw zone is going to shift enough in that time to warrant the warnings for our areas. I hope it's all going to kick off unexpectedly on the radar for us in the next few hours. . . but by then as you say peak day time heating will have well and truly kicked in by then Given that the cold snap is going to end before it's even really started for my location - I'm viewing what happens in the next few hours as my best chance to have decent, lying snow that lasts for a few days! (desperate I know) The puny mess that comes in tomorrow I hold little hope for in my location and the weekends 'event' turns everything mild and rainy by the end of it so again nothing looking good there either.

Yes really, I was watching your posts last night saying you were getting the heavy stuff and I almost burst in to tears. You're about 8 miles north of me so it made all the difference. . . I missed the good stuff by about 5 miles to my North and 20 miles to my West. . . Hoping for some sort of re-intensification when the band gets shunted back South shortly, but like Kold I cant see anything much happening at all in this screw zone and plus that damn blow torch up my ass just will not quit!!

Also spare a thought for us sad sacks of crap in the city of London who are also stuck in this scew zone and worse than you; we have an f'ing blow torch about to fire up and make doubly sure that any snow that does come here will get scorched to oblivion. Slush and snizzle, what a joke, as each of these snow chances passes us by with the echos of "snow just missed you again today but you will get yours tomorrow" . . how many days do we go on like this? In the space of the last week I've had multiple snow chances from the North, the East, the South and the West and the best I have got out of it is 1cm of slush. Still there's always tomorrow eh

Well this is just fan-clucking-tastic isn't it; snizzle for most of the night here in NW central London and now the stupid City has found it's way into the screw zone. . . I give up

The usual dollop of misery for me here in London, as I said earlier in the week just a bit of snizzle here from this '1 in 50 year' load of garbage. A few more wet flurrys for later and then mainly dry for a long time after that. Yes I'm sure there will be snow for us showing for the next few days on the charts. . . there has been for the last 2 weeks!! Honestly, a 1 in 50 year event and the capital city is planted 30 miles away, if London (main London) can only muster up a bit of sleet from this setup then really I have to be absolutely gutted. . . . . . and yes the world has ended.

You didn't catch where London (central) was in the 'band thing' did u?

Has anyone got a link that shows the UKMO 6z precip track for tonight? Cheers

I dont know if it's going to be the centre of the low that comes out of all this but it's certainly a key protaganist for us in the south east if I'm reading it right. That little cluster that you're referring to off the coast of Liverpool acts as some sort of linch pin which is going to hold everything up before it gets shunted SW. . . the further east that 'linch pin' cluster gets between now and 14ish then the better our chances in London IMO. If it just ambles due south then that does bot bode well for us in London and SE (imo) at least not for this particular event.

Delayed? under-statement of the century lol First it was going to be last Friday for the snow, then Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday then Tuesday and now it really is looking like I will never see anything from this. I knew the end was near one someone posted the channel 4 forecast to 'keep spirits up'

pretty much a complete disaster really, even out to the middle of next week we barely see a dusting here, while everyone else in the country will still have inches of lying snow! The irony is that EA and the SE look like being completely left out of all the snow when we were supposed to be the worst affected. Crumb of comfort comes from the GFS throwing wobblers left right and centre at the moment so i'm praying to heaven it was another one. . . (rope and 'dummies guide to nooses' purchased)

OK I'll take your judgement on that. . I've had far too many helpings of BBC weather forecasts today and it's made me miserable. . . but I draw some hope from the potential in the charts. . . could still get a pasting here from this event.

Hear what your saying Kold but I feel like everythings gone tits up now with that channel low projected to 'win-out' In pulling all the good stuff away from us on Wednesday it ruins thurs and Friday ppn as well for us. . . imo it just looks like the worst that could happen just did.

Kold do you hold any hope that 'our' North Sea Low can some how come through and beat the channel low? Are there any clues at all that one can look for to see which one might 'win' ?? Ta

Well I've loved all the highs and lows of the models over the last 3 days, the ECM 12z from Friday is still the chart of dreams for my area, closely followed by yesterdays GFS 12z. . . But alas, after all the amazing projected synoptics and as we get nearer the time I'm left with mainly dry apart from some snizzle from the tuesday/wednesday saga and maybe a few flurries from the weekend. However the LOW that was projected to bring in the beast for the weekend hasn't even formed yet so there's potentially still a lot up for grabs and that low could easily shift back NW and bring us back in to play

I agree with Kold and others who hope the GFS 18z was a synoptical outlier. . . from London's point of view; the big snow beast on the GFS 12z earlier would of given us the best chance of an absolute pasting here in the centre of London. Sure, the 18z still looks pretty good for London to get some decent accumulations from the Tues/Wed/Thurs saga but already by late Sunday the 18z wants to bring in marginal air. . . and the dream of seeing the real beast in my life time lives on. . . Here's my favourite chart from the 12z earlier and I'm sure it would of delivered epic spankings to even C London. . .

The GFS 18z is another pile of crap run for my area and really most in this region (away from the usual annoying snow hogging suck zones - N EA etc) will be lucky to get 2 tiny cms between now and when this 'beast' ends. Yesterday after the 12z ECM; I was looking at some Snow showers from Sunday to Tuesday, with masses of snow streaming in for Wednesday and lasting for days and days with no let up to the cold. Today I'm now looking at mainly dry for the next week with perhaps the odd snow flurry from wednesday onwards, then the milder/marginal air starts knocking on the door for the end of next weekend - nothing out of the ordinary for mid winter. Looking forward to a bit frost I guess. . .

TBH I'm a little disappointed by all the runs we've seen since yesterdays 12z ECM. . . I'm really speaking from London's point of view because I would of thought that with the direct Easterly showing yesterday, that would of been the best case scenario for London to get hammered. As it is now London wont get the best of the stuff on offer because of the predominant NE direction and longer land tracks. . . . . . and presumably we can forget about Thames Streamers coming from this NE'ly being projected? Is there any reasonable probability that something close to yesterdays 12z ECM will materialize and we get the direct Easterly for a good a few days??? Just outside the very warm zone of Central London here and we had a small dusting of snow lying early this morning. . . hoping we get a prolonged Easterly out of this so for once in my life time I can actually see snow pile up in masses here in London. Whatever happens it really looks excellent for EA and Kent and IMO if we get the unlikely switch to a prolonged full blown Easterly then literally the whole of the SE will be pasted to kingdom cum

Holy crap!! those are some great pics Phil, I only make one post per year, so I dedicate my annual post to you and those pics. Amazing, well done :o

You and I probably have different definitions of a storm but here in South Woodham Ferrers (about 12 miles from Southend) we've had a fair few cracks of thunder and I've seen some lightening to the south, so I reckon Southend must of been in the vicinity when that was occuring - so maybe your record has gone? dont shoot the messenger