Discombobulation Man

For those worried about the mumblings of Peter Cockroft, it wasn't bad at all, yesterdays lunchtime forecast was crap for us with snow turning to rain widely but today he was very upbeat and "concerned" about the snow in our region with really only areas just to the southwest of London possibly seeing snow turning to rain later, he also said that even the very centre of London is likely to have a few cm's of lying snow. As the precipitation falls light and patchy the threat of seeing rain will grow come Sunday morning but by that time we all should have a decent covering so we'll be fine even with if we do endure a little patchy rain. To my eyes the reason there's now a threat of snow turning to rain for the South western areas of this region is due to a very small circulation ahead of the front pulling in slight milder air from the Channel - hope it doesn't become a bigger feature as this event comes ever closer.

Whoever said it is probably chummy with Peter Cockroft who spouted the same thing on the London Lunchtime news, TBH I was expecting a nasty downgrade on the 12z's to support his idea of snow turning to rain. . . . But alas all 12z runs show snow all the way, so Peter Cockroft and and the rest of the & 'turning to rain' crowd can cram their sledges up where the sun is very hard to find. EDIT: Damn, faxes have shifted West, still not too bad. quote from Teits in the Model thread:

Take peoples point about ignoring TV forecasts but it's a real kick in the danglys that Peter Cockroft has seen some new data to make him cry rain and not all snow, he generally likes a bit of the white stuff and since the Beeb are fed their data by the Met office then you have to be a little concerned.

If anyone fancies a laugh to start their day check out the BBC 5 day forecast for London http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743 7 degrees with Sleet on Sunday! Hopefully those forecasts are still about as accurate as Mystic Meg.

Lol, guessing you dont get many party invites ? :winky:

To be honest I was hoping for something a bit better than a 1 in 5 chance of some decent snow (just a few CMs). We start out each Winter with about those odds of seeing a few cms at some point anyway I would of thought so i'm hardly salivating. However if we start seeing FI charts showing like this one from the 06z GFS last night then once we get this Atlantic blip out of the way the Beast will hit back and smack us silly with snow, so still exciting times even if we get Jack All from the weekend scenario.

Yeah it's a shame I must admit, after listening to people bleating on about "that Siberian high is too strong and wont give up without a fight" it's now looking like most of our region's best hope of a covering is a few hours of Snow at the weekend before it turns to rain. We may still have a shot at some nice convection off the North Sea Thurs/Fri with the colder uppers arriving but these are getting nibbled away at every run, (mean uppers around -12c, down from -14c a day or two ago) Positive to take from all this is that things can definitely change/upgrade very quickly in this type of uncertain pattern.

NAE offering a little bit of snow for London Thursday AM, hopefully the intensity peps up on future runs. Cant find many straws though.

Ha, I see TEITS has snuck in and added a choice blob of snow risk

The GEFS Control run is absolutely epic for this region http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=&runpara=1 Steams in the -14c's Thursday, then -16c's Friday and generally through the weekend (23c thermal gradient up the Estuary!) -18c dances with Kent for a brief time to. Would give most in this region a 3 day snow event from Thursday night

Ha, yep, I can only imagine what must be taking place at Croydon Council offices today with Yamkin relaying his subtle view on the last couple of model runs, something along the lines of. . "guys we need to buy some snow ploughs asap" lol When you see charts like the ones Steve Murr has highlighted this morning it's hard to not get excited a little, though it is just one of many many possibilities, probably would need snow ploughs if this came off, mega snowtastic:

Lovely, we might just scrape 6 hours of sleet from that before the Jet Stream is unleashed again and destroys another week of potential decent cold and snow: Anyone thinking the GFS 6z offers any hope at all for a decent cold shot should simply take a quick glance at the Jet Stream modelling - we aint gonna get snow with the Jet barreling out of the USA and slamming straight into the us.

No chance, best hope now is that the precip band hugging NE/E coastal areas swings back down and swipes us with a finger of something Wintry, probably not til after dark though, upper temps I would of thought should be ok but most models are showing this as a decaying 'finger' of drizzle - we can hope!

Indeed Harry, we've had about 10 storms here in the last month and this probably beats all of them for rainfall intensity and timespan. Will be interesting to see the radar returns when it comes back up to see if it really is as bad is it seemed.

Great video, thanks! Was an all time top 20 for me, would of been a top 10 for sure had he not run away from the window for those crucial 10 seconds

Couple of Thunder Cracks, 5 mins of heavy rain andnow the suns out

Lol I dont think so, to be honest I'm feeling a bit greedy, I've had about 8 T Storms in the last few weeks and I can hear another damn monster knocking at my door at present

I'm a few miles from the edge and heard a few promising rumbles but nothing in the last few minutes

Goodnight

He's helping Chris Hollins get his money back from the car hire company at present. :lol:

Ha thats funny, when you think they put out a headline on there Weather section reading 'Spanish Plume for Parched South East' . . . . 2 days later we've barely had a dribble. But look at the positive, there's practically sod all electrics in that load of rain so I say let the rest of the country go bonkers for steady rain - when the good stuff comes dancing over the channel when Summer starts hopefully it will be our turn then.

Game over, that pathetic load of snot heading our way out of France is about the best we'll get from this Plume.

I dont believe it! I've been having light rain on and off for the last hour and all of a sudden a distant rumble of thunder!! Surely that doesn't count as a Storm? Edit: Suns out and light rain has stopped - picked up only 3mm of rain from todays desperate effort and no way is this counting as a Storm.

Yep can confirm light rain in London, hopefully I'll pick up a MM or 2 from this clump because it looks like everything is going to happen just to the North and West of me again. Look but dont touch for the billionth time this year. Edit: light rain now stopped.

I'm glad there's someone else in the same Sahara Suck Zone as me. I think people were starting to think I was telling porkies about only recording 14mm of rain since may 1st (amateur rain guage) The 6z doesn't look good at all to see any appreciable rain down here - look what happens to the Front that comes down from the North West on Thurs/Friday, it peps up just to the NW of the SE and then disintegrates as it hits our Weather Shields. Their is a faint chance of me picking up a decent shower on Friday morning from some low-level instability but the 6z has downgraded even those chances - on the whole it looks desperate to me. For sure some records are going to be broken round here.